Elon Musk has a lot to lose at US midterms as pollsters tip blue wave

Last November, Elon Musk was looking to step away from the halls of power.

"You know, I've generally found that when I get involved in politics, it ends up badly," he told investor and YouTuber Nikhil Kamath.

"Best to avoid where possible."

The Tesla and SpaceX chief executive's stint as a special government employee leading the now-defunct Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) had ended months earlier after a string of controversies.

Mr Musk also quietly shelved plans to launch a political party, which had been announced during a short-lived feud with US President Donald Trump.

But as the country's midterm elections approach, Mr Musk is making another foray into politicking.

And with control of Congress now in reach for Democrats, the stakes for the trillionaire are higher than ever.

Trying to turn back a blue tide

With Mr Trump's approval rating at record lows, Democrats are banking on breakthrough performances at the November 3 elections.

Forecasters say the House of Representatives is all but guaranteed to flip blue, while the Senate result is, at the least, a toss-up.

Despite arguing that "they never poll us right", the president has embarked on a campaign blitz across the country.

He has also promised to pay every American adult $US5,000 (about $7,100) if Republicans retain control of Congress, reminiscent of the $US5,000 cheques cut from DOGE savings once floated in early 2025.

Mr Musk may be staying off the campaign trail, but behind the scenes, he has become the biggest known midterm donor, sinking about $US442 million into Republican groups in this election cycle.

At least $US158 million of that has gone toward a race in his home state of Texas, in which Republicans are at risk of losing a once-safe US Senate seat to Democratic candidate James Talarico.

Mr Talarico's campaign has released ads claiming Mr Musk wants to "buy his own US senator" by bankrolling Republican candidate Ken Paxton.

"So let's remind Elon: Texas is not for sale," the ads say.

Separately, Mr Musk earlier this month said he would give a SpaceX share to "every child in America" in 2027. While he did not provide details of the giveaway, Mr Trump claimed it as a victory for his Trump accounts program, through which he said the stock would be distributed. 

Dems put target on Musk's back

There is a lot at stake for Mr Musk if control of the House changes over.

Democrats have been calling for investigations into several areas of his dealings, and if they win back gavels in several congressional committees, they will have the power to follow through.

Mr Musk recently landed himself in Democrats' sights after Ukraine reported its access to the SpaceX owned Starlink and Starshield services had been restricted, affecting the country's ability to defend against Russian drone attacks. 

In response to the matter, Mr Musk said Starshield's systems were controlled by the US government.

Mr Trump and the SpaceX owner have denied responsibility, but a Wall Street Journal report cited officials and people familiar with the matter as saying Mr Musk ordered the throttled speeds.

Days prior, Mr Musk commented that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had "gone too far" by striking Russian oil refineries.

US Representative Pramila Jayapal, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, told Politico the incident raised questions about Mr Musk's power.

"What happens when one guy gets a giant contract from the government and then uses it to do something that shuts down communication in a war that has been extremely important to the United States to support Ukraine?" she said.

"There's a lot of different parts of the corruption around Musk."

Democrats on several committees have also earmarked DOGE for congressional scrutiny.

Through its 10-month lifespan, the department cut an estimated 250,000 federal jobs, allegedly accessed sensitive data, and withheld congressionally appropriated funds.

Democrats have also alleged conflicts of interest between Mr Musk and the federal government.

Republicans blocked previous attempts by Democrats on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform to subpoena Mr Musk.

"There's any number of House committees that would have jurisdiction in some respect over him," said Harry Melkonian, an honorary associate at the United States Studies Centre.

"He's a major defence contractor and NASA contractor, so his companies receive staggering amounts of federal money each year."

In June 2025, representative Jasmine Crockett, who sits on the oversight committee, vowed to "bring Elon Musk in" once Democrats regained the majority.

"And we can have him under oath, and we can have him tell us about everything that he did," she said in an appearance on MSNBC.

In response to the Politico report that Democrats were discussing possible investigations into Mr Musk,  the trillionaire threatened to retaliate against congressional investigations.

"Live by the sword, die by the sword," he wrote on X.

"Those who pick fights with me should understand that I will find out who is really pulling the strings and come for them, not just their puppets."

Testimonies, document production

Mr Musk could be called to testify at committee hearings and required to produce documents under a congressional investigation.

"For somebody like Musk, it would be truly awful to be sitting for eight hours a day, having a panel of people just questioning everything you do," Dr Melkonian said.

"It becomes television news … and he is a businessman selling consumer products."

But refusing to cooperate would present its own problems.

"On the political side, as a major contractor, he would be reluctant to antagonise a congressional majority because his companies depend on money voted by Congress," Dr Melkonian said.

"Legally, he could be held in contempt of Congress."

The federal misdemeanour is punishable by imprisonment of up to 12 months.

If an investigation uncovers any wrongdoing, the findings can be referred to the Department of Justice for prosecution.

The US attorney would be bound to take the matter to a grand jury in Washington, DC.

Dr Melkonian said the findings could lead Congress to determine Mr Musk as unfit for further dealings with the government.

"They could say, 'We're not going to authorise any more spending [on government contracts with Musk]'. That's their ultimate power. Congress controls the dollars," he said.

"Whether or not it ever goes to a federal judge, I don't think he likes that."