It has been very clear from early on that Kimi Antonelli will become Formula 1 world champion in 2026 after an impressively dominant year for the Mercedes driver.
The 20-year-old has made a huge jump from his up-and-down rookie campaign and with five, consecutive wins from round two to six, Antonelli has been the man to beat virtually all season.
Now, the first chance for him to wrap up the title is finally in sight next time out in Austin with a 102-point gap over team-mate George Russell in second.
If he were to clinch the title at the United States Grand Prix, then Antonelli will have become champion with five rounds remaining - one shy of the record held by Michael Schumacher from 2002.
Here is how he could do it.
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Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes, Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing
Photo by: Clive Rose / Formula 1 via Getty Images
Although it is clear which way the title is going, six drivers are still in mathematical contention due to there being 150 points left available in the 2026 campaign.
That leaves Antonelli, Russell, Lewis Hamilton, Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris all with some kind of chance of winning the championship as 139 points separates the top six in the standings.
| Position | Driver | Points | Gap to top |
| 1 | Kimi Antonelli | 340 | N/A |
| 2 | George Russell | 238 | 102 |
| 3 | Lewis Hamilton | 229 | 111 |
| 4 | Max Verstappen | 221 | 119 |
| 5 | Charles Leclerc | 215 | 125 |
| 6 | Lando Norris | 201 | 139 |
How Antonelli becomes F1 world champion at US GP
Considering it is 25 points for a grand prix win and there are five rounds after Austin, Antonelli must hold an advantage of at least 125 points to become champion. That is the maximum total available post-Texas but because the Italian is on eight victories for the season, Russell is next on three, then he could clinch the crown on countback of wins.
An example of that is the most straightforward way for Antonelli to become world champion: winning the US GP, while Russell finishes ninth or lower. Although it is quite unlikely, that would nevertheless leave a 125-point gap between the Mercedes duo with Antonelli taking it on countback.
If Russell finishes 10th at Austin, then Antonelli would still need to win the race to become champion that day. Eighth or higher for the Briton and the non-existent title fight goes to Mexico at the end of October.
| If Antonelli finishes... | Russell must finish... |
| 1st | 9th or lower |
| 2nd or lower | Title fight goes to Mexico |
For Hamilton to remain in contention, the Ferrari driver cannot be outscored by 14 or more points in the United States. So if Antonelli wins, Hamilton must finish at least fourth and if the Mercedes driver is second, the seven-time world champion needs seventh or above.
| If Antonelli finishes... | Hamilton must finish... |
| 1st | 5th or below |
| 2nd | 8th or below |
| 3rd | 10th or below |
| 4th or below | Title fight goes to Mexico |
For Verstappen - the man in form with two wins on the bounce in yet another late resurgence from Red Bull - to be put out of title contention, then Antonelli simply needs to outscore the Red Bull driver by at least six points.
So if the Mercedes driver takes to the top step in Texas, that is enough to end all hopes for Verstappen. Should Antonelli take second, then fourth or below would put the four-time world champion out of it.
| If Antonelli finishes... | Verstappen must finish... |
| 1st | 2nd or below |
| 2nd | 4th or below |
| 3rd | 6th or below |
| 4th | 7th or below |
| 5th | 8th or below |
| 6th | 9th or below |
| 7th | 11th or below |
| 8th | Title fight goes to Mexico |
It is much simpler when it comes to Antonelli versus Leclerc and Norris, because not losing any points to them would put both out of contention.
The data above is in line with the current calendar, where the season would end with the Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grands Prix.
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