With about 10 days left for the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, talk of a Democratic wave has shifted from opinion polls to voting reality. Every major forecast now predicts the Democrats will win the House of Representatives. Statistician Nate Silver gives them a 75% chance of winning the Senate, which Republicans held strongly just a month ago. The Grand Old Party faces five main problems: a President who is a liability, weak candidates, money not swaying voters, fissures in their heartland, and a party base turning against its own.
A President on the defensive
Let us begin with the President. Midterms are often a verdict on the White House. Donald Trump has made this election about himself, telling crowds to “pretend I’m on the ballot”. His approval rating is below 40%. In September, he told Republicans in tight races that he would visit “every one of those 35 places”. But he has campaigned in fewer than a third. Most stops have been in States he won easily, such as Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee, and Montana, which he said was his way “to thank them”. When a President rallies supporters in States that he won by huge margins two years earlier instead of margin seats, it conveys a hint of desperation.
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The next issue is candidate quality. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. This year, the Republican nominee is Ken Paxton, who was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 and later acquitted by the State Senate. He was also observed partying in 2025 in Dubai with two Pakistani-American federal fugitives who were also his donors. His Democratic opponent, James Talarico, a former teacher and State legislator, was leading by two points in a Fox News poll (but the latest Fox News poll listed for October 15-19 showed a 49%-49% tie); and by three points in a University of Texas poll (September 25-October 5).
The third problem is in the heartland. Kansas has sent only Republicans to this Senate seat since 1919, the longest streak for any party in U.S. history. Republican incumbent Roger Marshall is tied in the polls with Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor who started one of the country’s largest churches. In Nebraska — a State Mr. Trump won by over 20 points — Democrats have stepped aside for Dan Osborn, a former union leader running as an independent. He is about three points behind Senator Pete Ricketts. When a party spends the last two weeks defending strongholds of Kansas and Nebraska, it is on the back foot.
The fourth issue is money. Elon Musk, who split from Mr. Trump last year, is now the biggest known donor in this election, having given over $276 million to Republican groups since July. Recent filings show that Mr. Musk gave $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund and a separate $10 million to Lone Star Liberty PAC, which supports Mr. Paxton’s Senate campaign. Even so, Mr. Talarico, the Democratic candidate, is still ahead. Money can buy TV advertisements, but it cannot easily overcome a national mood shaped by high prices, an unpopular war with Iran, and immigration raids.
The lesson from Ohio
Ohio combines these issues, making it the most revealing race. Vivek Ramaswamy, a former presidential candidate backed by Mr. Trump, seemed confirmed for Governor in a State that the President has won three times. His opponent, Amy Acton, looked like an easy target. As Ohio’s highly unpopular health director during the COVID-19 pandemic, she ordered lockdowns, faced armed protesters at her home, and had Republicans try to strip her powers before she resigned in 2020. Mr. Ramaswamy and his supporters have spent about $101 million on advertisements, including $36 million of his own money, about three times what Ms. Acton has spent. Still, he was trailing her recently by about three points on average. Among independent voters, his net rating is minus 25, the lowest for a Republican candidate for Governor in Ohio this century.
This week, his campaign announced plans to spend $4 million promoting an advertisement featuring Ms. Acton’s estranged mother calling her a liar, drawing criticism from Republicans, including Governor Mike DeWine and Senator Jon Husted.
Much of this can be explained by the national mood, since the party’s Senate candidate in Ohio is also behind by a similar amount. But some of Mr. Ramaswamy’s problems come from within his own party. His rival in the Republican primary, Casey Putsch, posted a video of himself with a rifle inviting him to play “cowboys versus Indians”. He called Mr. Ramaswamy an “anchor baby” and said that there was “nothing remotely American” about him. Still, nearly one in five Republican primary voters picked Mr. Putsch. Far-right commentator Nick Fuentes told his followers to oppose Mr. Ramaswamy, while students at a conservative youth event questioned whether a Hindu could represent a Christian State. The anger goes back to the H-1B controversy in December 2024, when Mr. Ramaswamy said American culture undervalued excellence, which angered ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) voters. Now, the same party that once questioned who belongs in America is asking the same question about its own candidate.
Self-inflicted wounds
Ohio is an apt lesson for the Republicans. A party can get through having an unpopular President, a weak candidate, or a tough electoral map in any given year. But it is much harder when all these problems happen at once and the party’s base starts judging its own candidates by their race, background and religion. If Democrats win Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, or Ohio on November 3, it will be a wave, and the Republicans will have helped make it. Perhaps they deserve that loss.
Anil Raman is a retired Brigadier and a research fellow in the Geopolitics Program of Takshashila Institution