BGI Index: Republican Sunbelt may be slipping

New York/DNA – The 2000 U.S. presidential election put a harsh spotlight on Florida’s paper punchcard ballots, producing a margin of error that was too wide to deliver a definitive outcome in the state’s decisive race, which was closer than 2,000 votes out of 5.8 million cast.

Having become an international laughingstock for its weeks-long recount of spoiled ballots, the frequent partisan swing state implemented what were considered model reforms to implement touchscreen voting. However, in the newly released report “The Governance Performance of the Fifty States: The U.S. Berggruen Governance Index,” Florida ranked only 32nd for democratic accountability. The report, produced by researchers at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), the Los Angeles-based Berggruen Institute and Berlin’s Hertie School, has now been presented to the public at Columbia University in New York.

One of three metrics in a “governance triangle” that the study applied to all 50 U.S. states, democratic accountability measures election procedures, along with scores for civil society activity and government openness from lobbying disclosures to state auditor independence.

Focus on the midterm elections

Fast-growing Florida had been one of the most prized swing states in presidential politics for decades, but since siding with Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016, it has been increasingly reliably Republican. The post-2000 electoral reforms have been diluted, including a return to paper ballots, though not punch cards. The state’s Republican legislature has also obstructed attempts to make it easier for convicted felons to regain voting privileges after leaving prison.

Despite Trump’s 13-point victory two years ago in Florida, the state may be swinging back into the competitive column. Averages of recent Florida polling give the state’s Republican candidates for governor and the U.S. Senate margins of only 4 per cent and 6 per cent in their Nov. 3 midterm election races.

The right-wing populist party’s other Sunbelt colossus, Texas, may be even shakier. 

Scandal-plagued Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton has consistently trailed Democrat James Talarico, though typically within the margin of error. While Paxton is widely seen as a damaged candidate, the even more surprising polls are in 12-year Governor Greg Abbott’s bid for an unprecedented fourth term. Recent polls have put Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa even or leading by 1 per cent to 2 per cent. 

Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in more than 30 years. In the U.S. Berggruen Governance Index, Texas ranks 46th for democratic accountability, based on 2005-2024 data.

Magnets for domestic migration

Florida and Texas share relatively strong budget pictures, having benefited from decades of rapid population growth. The U.S. Berggruen Governance Index scored Texas 10th for state capacity – third best in the Southern quadrant – based on debt levels, along with budget processes and effective welfare-state delivery such as unemployment insurance. Florida ranked 15th.

Both states have been magnets for domestic migration, though that trend has slowed dramatically in the past two years. Florida in particular has suffered galloping housing costs due to robust demand and constrained supply, as well as soaring property insurance premiums in the hurricane-prone peninsula.

For public goods provision, which combines quality-of-life metrics such as health and educational outcomes with infrastructure and quasi-public goods often delivered through the private sector, Florida looks more like a Northeastern state than the southernmost. It ranks No. 17 in this category of the BGI, higher than any of its far South neighbours. Texas is 38th, along with the Southern states that constitute 11 of the bottom 15 for public goods.

Florida falls within the 14 states that the governance report classifies as fiscally sound and delivering. That group of states has well-funded public employee pensions – a glaring weakness among several states with higher median incomes – and therefore strong state capacity. The group is also politically diverse with the most swing states, even though Florida is not counted as a swing state, for now.

Texas, in contrast, is one of nine states classed in the report as fiscally strong but poorly served. The group “has the fiscal room to act, yet records the worst outcomes among the 50 states” with “unused capacity for improving governance performance,” the report says.

The full report, “The Governance Performance of the Fifty States: The U.S. Berggruen Governance Index,” can be downloaded here. 

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