If the season is going to be turned around, it needs to start right about now for Colorado State.
The fast 2-0 start for the Rams seems long ago as CSU has now lost four games in a row. There is still time to salvage things with some, on paper, winnable games in the back half of the season, but it needs to come quickly.
The next chance to stop the skid comes Oct. 24 when the Rams host San Diego State at 4:30 p.m. Mountain at Canvas Stadium.
Here's what we're watching for and a final score prediction for the Pac-12 matchup:
Will 'progress' of defense show up on Saturday?
CSU has allowed 60 points per game over its last three contests. The Rams are last in FBS in rush defense, total defense and scoring defense. Two games ago, coach Jim Mora ripped play-calling duties from Tyson Summers and gave them to Kenny McClendon.
Last week was the first full game for McClendon running the defense, but the Rams gave up a whopping 66 to Texas State. Still, Mora said he saw development from the group in the practice leading up to the game.
He reiterated that this week.
"I am a glass-is-half-full guy, I will admit that. I see progress," Mora said. But he also knows "it doesn’t mean crap unless it happens on Saturday."
Mora knows the stats from the game will dictate the view on the supposed progress.
"At the end of the day though, all that really freaking matters in this sport, because it’s a results-oriented business, is did we get it done or did we not? And right now the results say that we didn’t to everyone that’s watching," Mora said.
San Diego State presents a different challenge than the last two explosive offenses (Oregon State and Texas State) CSU faced.
The Aztecs are 103rd in the nation in scoring offense (23.3 points per game), 132nd in passing offense (149 per game) and 87th in rushing offense (144 per game).
San Diego State is averaging just 18.3 points per game in six games against FBS foes (the Aztecs hung 53 points on FCS team Portland State).
The asterisk is injuries. Star running back Lucky Sutton has missed time but was back in action last week. The team battled a case of the mumps.
Sutton and former Ram running back Javion Kinnard are both listed as questionable but played last week and could present a formidable rushing duo against a CSU defense that hasn't stopped anyone on the ground.
Starting QB Jayden Denegal is questionable, but it seems certain the Aztecs will try and run over CSU.
San Diego State has wins over Texas State and Fresno State in its last three games (but also an ugly 66-14 loss to Oregon State).
Will the Rams show tangible progress on defense?
What impact can Hauss Hejny have?
The expectation is Hauss Hejny returns to action to start for the Rams at quarterback for the first time since Week 3.
Hejny injured his hamstring that week against BYU and has now missed more than a month of action and three full games.
K'saan Farrar did what a team could hope for from its backup QB. Farrar is completing 62% of his passes for 931 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions this season. CSU going winless in his starts was more about the defense than Farrar and the offense.
But Hejny can be a gamechanger. His ceiling as a QB for the Rams is sky high.
So far this season, Hejny is completing 64% of his passes for 619 yards and 10 touchdowns. He's also averaging 9.8 yards per rush, including a 75-yard touchdown.
Mora expects Hejny to be full go.
"He's felt really good in practice. He hasn't been restricted at all. He's Hauss," Mora said. "If there's a play to run, he's going to run. Nobody's going to tell him to take it easy because that doesn't exist in his mind."
A deeper look at the numbers can suggest the boost Hejny could give CSU, which could not only boost the offense but in turn help protect the defense.
Hejny has started 26 drives for CSU this season and exactly half of them ended in touchdowns and another four in field goal attempts, meaning 65% of his drives ended with a chance to score. Only one ended in a true negative (an interception).
Farrar has 40 drives (these numbers don't count pseudo drives where the half ends, nor the one for Farrar against BYU where he left injured early in the drive). Those drives have ended in 13 touchdowns and one field goal attempt, so 35% have ended in a scoring chance.
There are deeper factors to consider in the numbers. Hejny's two full games were against bad teams, while Farrar has faced tougher competition. Farrar also had to deal with the struggles of the defense, so his offense was forced to play mostly in chase mode. CSU is also dealing with significant injuries on offense, particularly on the line.
Still, Hejny helps raise the ceiling for CSU. If he plays like he did pre-injury, it could help the Rams get back on track.
What's the mentality and resolve of this CSU team?
In an ugly, blowout loss like CSU's 66-27 defeat to Texas State last week, the reactions and overreactions come in force.
Fans frequently claim a team "quit" in a game like that. It's often a crutch of blame to throw in blowout defeats. Sometimes it's true, but often it's not. A team can play hard but play badly and get blown out.
Is CSU's roster still all-in on this season? This game should tell us a lot. San Diego State is a decent team but far from unbeatable and, in theory, the less explosive offense from the Aztecs makes a better matchup for the Rams.
Can CSU respond? If the Rams lose in a blowout here, alarm bells will be ringing. But a competitive game could signal a season the team is still fighting for.
San Diego State vs Colorado State score prediction
San Diego State 37, Colorado State 34.
I think Hejny provides a boost and the Rams are more competitive. Hejny and the Rams will score the ball and move the ball more consistently, helping protect the defense.
And that defense will be slightly better, but it's not fixed. The Lucky Sutton and Javion Kinnard running back duo could terrorize the Rams.
It's a close game throughout, but CSU is unable to get the one key stop late in the game to pull out the win.
Sports reporter Kevin Lytle can be found on social media on X, Instagram and Threads @Kevin_Lytle and on Bluesky.
This article originally appeared on Fort Collins Coloradoan: What we're watching for and prediction for San Diego State at CSU