Certain matchups always stand out more than others on NFL DFS slates, and the impending NFC North showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in Week 7 is the most popular game to have exposure to. Whether you’re trying to fade the Packers-Lions game or have a different lineup around players from that game, which underrated players should we be targeting in DFS?
Based on players’ salaries on both FanDuel and DraftKings and matchups, here are the top five underrated NFL DFS GPP (guaranteed prize pool) plays for Week 7.
All stats used in this article are from PFF or Sumer Sports unless stated otherwise. Offensive and defensive EPA and success rate metrics are courtesy of rbsdm.com.
Kyler Murray, QB, Minnesota Vikings ($7,300 FD/$5,400 DK) vs. IND
It’s been a slow start for Kyler Murray in his first year with the Minnesota Vikings, but this is a perfect week for him to find his footing in Kevin O’Connell’s offense. Along with the Vikings coming off a bye week, this could be Murray’s first full game with Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson available.
The matchup on Sunday also favors Murray, as the Indianapolis Colts are 20th in dropback EPA allowed (0.08).
Ollie Gordon II, RB, Miami Dolphins ($6,000 FD/$5,500 DK) at NYJ
Ollie Gordon II has found the end zone in three straight games, and he’s carried the ball 17-plus times in two of his first three starts since De’Von Achane suffered a season-ending injury. It’s clear that Gordon has a stranglehold on the starting job, and we know the Dolphins want to pound the rock each week.
Besides backup Jaylen Wright being limited in practice, Gordon will face a New York Jets defense in Week 7 that is 26th in rushing success rate allowed (42.5%).
Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams ($5,500 FD/$5,000 DK) at LV
Instead of leaning on unproven WRs and an assortment of TEs amid injuries on offense, what if Sean McVay just leans on the ground game more? Blake Corum has gotten more involved recently, which has led to him scoring double-digit points on FanDuel and DraftKings in back-to-back games.
Entering Week 7, the Las Vegas Raiders are permitting the 10th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to RBs (+1.4).
Omar Cooper Jr., WR, New York Jets ($5,100 FD/$4,100 DK) vs. MIA
From a season-long fantasy football perspective, rookie Omar Cooper Jr. isn’t going to be overlooked after being arguably the most popular waiver wire addition in Week 7. However, in NFL DFS, Cooper isn’t expected to be heavily rostered against the Miami Dolphins following his stellar performance in Week 6.
While the Dolphins have been formidable against WRs in fantasy this season, they are 31st in dropback EPA (0.28) and passing success rate allowed (53.6%).
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings ($5,100 FD/$4,500 DK) vs. IND
Hockenson made an early exit in Week 5 with a head injury, and he was immediately placed in the league’s concussion protocol. As the Vikings come out of their bye week, Hockenson appears ready to return, and he’ll face a favorable matchup against the Colts.
Indy’s defense is coughing up the 11th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to the TE position (+0.6).
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