One of the latest polls suggests that Republican Ken Paxton may be moving the needle on his Democrat opponent James Talarico, with the new result showing that he is narrowly running ahead of the competition.
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS TEXAS SENATE POLL | October 13, 2026 Our latest survey finds Ken Paxton and James Talarico essentially tied in Texas’ U.S. Senate race, with 23 days remaining until Election Day at the close of fieldwork. 📊 U.S. Senate Ballot 🔴 Ken Paxton (R): 47.2% 🔵 James Talarico (D): 46.7% ⚪️ Ted Brown (L): 2.2% ⚪️ Undecided: 3.9% — Paxton +0.5. Neither candidate reaches 50%, with Brown’s support and the undecided share totaling 6.1%. –––––––––––––––––––––––––– Demographic Results: 📊 Gender • Women: Talarico +10 • Men: Paxton +12 📊 Age • 18–29: Talarico +33 • 30–44: Talarico +13 • 45–64: Paxton +4 • 65+: Paxton +17 📊 Race / Ethnicity • White: Paxton +23 • Hispanic: Talarico +18 • Black: Talarico +72 📊 Party • Republicans: Paxton 87% /Talarico 7% • Democrats: Talarico 95% / Paxton 2% • Independents: Talarico 52% / Paxton 37% 📊 Geography • Urban: Talarico +26 • Suburban: Paxton 50% / Talarico 45% • Rural: Paxton +34 –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Candidate Favorability • Paxton: 45.8% favorable / 51.8% unfavorable • Talarico: 48.6% favorable / 46.8% unfavorable 📊 In Step With Texas? We asked whether each candidate’s views and values are in line with most Texans or out of step: • Paxton: 48.6% in line / 47.7% out of step • Talarico: 45.5% in line / 48.3% out of step 📊 Social-Circle Vote Perception Who do voters think their friends, family, coworkers, and neighbors will support? • Mostly or almost all Paxton: 43.1% • Mostly or almost all Talarico: 41.7% • About evenly split: 4.5% • Not sure: 10.6% — Paxton +1.4 in perceived support. 📊 2024 Presidential Vote Recall • Trump: 51.5% • Harris: 41.1% — Trump +10.4. –––––––––––––––––––––––––– October 9–11, 2026 · 854 full sample · 839 voters-only ballot base · MoE ±3.6 percentage points Full report and methodology: quantusinsights [dot] org/polling
— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 13, 2026
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Quantus poll | 10/9-10/11 LV US Senate Texas 2026 🟥Ken Paxton 47.2% 🟦James Talarico 46.7% 🟨Ted Brown 2.2% Link to poll: https://t.co/erpacPXEEK https://t.co/I5cdJozy2V
— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) October 13, 2026
2026 Texas Senate Poll 🔴 Ken Paxton: 47.2% 🔵 James Talarico: 46.7% Quantus poll | 10/9-10/11 https://t.co/oNQ7X4XdIv
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 13, 2026
The poll from Quantus Insights has given Paxton a half-point edge over Talarico. Looking deeper, the data shows that 87 percent of Republicans have committed to voting for Paxton, with 7 percent throwing in for Talarico. Should the remaining 8 percent move toward Paxton, the edge could grow larger.
Geographically, the suburban and rural voters are where Paxton is shining, with Paxton taking a point boost over Talarico in suburban Texas and a 34-point leap in the rural areas.
The news gets even better for Paxton when considering that the sample was just +10 for Trump in 2024 when he won the state by nearly 14 points. Still, undecideds and third-party voters are currently making up more than 6 percent of the electorate.
With just one week remaining until early voting opens in Texas, Paxton’s path to victory is becoming clearer.
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