Four Overrated, Underrated Teams in Preseason Men’s College Basketball AP Top 25

It’s hard to believe, but the start of the college basketball season—Nov. 1—is nearing, and the preseason prognostications are beginning with Monday’s preseason AP Top 25 men’s hoops poll. Preseason polls are already a tricky business, but with five-in-five eligibility question marks hovering over many teams around the country, the voters’ task was especially arduous this year.

That said, we believe they were a bit too high or a tad too low on these four teams in particular.

Underrated: No. 16 Michigan

Win a national championship in dominant fashion one season, fall out of the top 15 in the preseason rankings the following season. For some reasons, it’s understandable. Michigan coach Dusty May left the increasingly chaotic college basketball world for the NBA just a couple of months after reaching the mountaintop. Five-star freshman Brandon McCoy Jr., expected to play a major role for the defending champions, suffered a season-ending injury in late August.

That said, Michigan benefits from continuity in the backcourt with senior Elliot Cadeau and sophomore Trey McKenney, who is ready for starter’s minutes after playing a pivotal March Madness role off the bench. And with transfers J.P. Estrella and Moustapha Thiam, Michigan will once again boast a lengthy, physical frontcourt that figures to be defensively sound and crash the boards at one of the best rates in the country. I get the trepidation with May gone, but 16 is too low for the defending champs.

Overrated: No. 8 Tennessee

There’s a lot to like about Tennessee, which landed Sports Illustrated’s top-ranked transfer portal class, adding the kind of perimeter shooting that Rick Barnes’s teams have lacked in past NCAA tournaments. Speaking of which, Barnes is too good of a coach to not find a way to get 13 new players and four new starters to jell. A path to being one of the better offensive teams in the SEC is there for Barnes & Co. But it won’t matter if they don’t fortify the defense.

While it’s only an exhibition game, it was certainly concerning to see the Volunteers lit up for 59 second-half points by Xavier in its first preseason game this past week. This is definitely a Top 25 team, but let’s see them in action a few more times before anointing them a top-10 squad.

Overrated: No. 12 Arkansas

Razorbacks coach John Calipari has put together a nice mix of promising recruits, talented transfers and a key returnee in forward Billy Richmond, last year’s fourth-leading scorer. Yet, Calipari is going to be heavily reliant on freshmen, which comprise as many as eight spots on the roster, something that could lead to some growing pains for the Razorbacks. Experienced transfers and starters Jeremiah Wilkinson and Cooper Bowser will be especially important.

Oh, and Arkansas’s hellacious nonconference schedule, which features three top-10 opponents and led Calipari to joke that he was “on crack,” is nothing to sneeze at. The nature of the Razorbacks’ schedule demands that these diaper dandies learn on the fly rather quickly, something that Calipari will either be thankful for or rue come rigorous SEC play.

Overrated: No. 21 USC

After managing just seven wins in conference play and missing out on the NCAA tournament in consecutive seasons, USC coach Eric Musselman is in need of a major bounce-back season in 2026–27. Last year's late-season collapse and off-the-court issues were particularly discouraging.

Musselman certainly has the talent on this team to do just that, as the backcourt, with the likes of Rodney Rice and Alijah Arenas, can score with the best of them. And with the returning Jacob Cofie, the heralded Ratliff twins and (hopefully) a healthy Eric Reibe, this is a big frontcourt that had the potential to be sound defensively.

Unfortunately, after injuries derailed last season, the Trojans have some injury question marks once again, none bigger than the status of the program’s potential starting center in Reibe. The ingredients are here for the Trojans to be much improved, but with plenty of new faces and only one ball, we’d be more comfortable waiting to see how it all comes together for USC before declaring them a Top 25 team.

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