We head out west for today's start-sit debate. It features the Raiders' No. 2 pass-catcher, Tre Tucker, and the Cardinals' No. 2 wide receiver, Kendrick Bourne. Both have stories to tell of lucrative roles which fantasy managers may be urged to start in Week 6. The question I answer is: Which is better? Let's find out.
The Case of Tre Tucker
Over five games, Tucker has 28 targets (17% target share), 19 receptions, 274 yards, and 1 touchdown. He is averaging 14.4 yards per reception, 23rd among 86 qualified wide receivers.
Per game, that is 5.6 targets, 3.8 receptions, and 54.8 yards. Tucker has only two of the Raiders' 25 total red zone targets.
The Raiders offer a great matchup for their pass-catchers this Sunday. They will host the Bills, who rank worst in Fantasy Points Allowed to Wide Receivers. Per game, Buffalo allows opposing wide receivers 15.2 receptions, 187.4 yards, and 1.8 touchdowns.
Tucker is the WR32 in fantasy football. Factoring in the great matchup, I have Tucker projected just inside the top-20 wide receivers in Week 6. As of Friday afternoon, Tucker is projected for 9.7 targets, 6.7 receptions, 75.7 yards, and a 30.3% chance of scoring a touchdown.
The Case of Kendrick Bourne
Bourne's statistics may be misleading given the recent trade of Marvin Harrison Jr. Nonetheless, he has 21 targets (11% target share), 17 receptions, 178 yards, and 0 touchdowns.
In Week 5, Bourne's first and only game without Harrison Jr., he caught 5 of 7 targets for 50 yards. That was a 16% target share and tied for the second-most targets on the team in that game against the Detroit Lions.
Bourne has four red zone targets this season, a minuscule amount of the team's 37 red zone targets. Trey McBride has 11 red zone targets, and Michael Wilson has 9.
The hope is that Bourne's new WR2 role ignites a larger payload. He is now expected to have about one-sixth of the Cardinals' passing offense. McBride and Wilson are expected to have about 30% each. Jalen Brooks should have about 10% as the WR3.
The Cardinals will have no easy Sunday, but a trailing game script could lead to higher passing volume. They face the LA Rams, one of the best teams in the NFL, with one of the best defenses.
Against the pass, the Rams rank 15th in Fantasy Points Allowed. Per game, they have allowed 8.0 receptions (the lowest in the NFL), 102.4 yards, and 1.4 touchdowns. My power rating rates their coverage as the best in the NFL, as touchdowns seem to play a role in the NFL ranking above.
Bourne should have no easy day ahead of him. As of Friday afternoon, my projection lists Bourne as the WR56 with 3.9 targets, 2.9 receptions, 35.2 yards, and a 9.8% touchdown probability.
Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Tre Tucker vs. Kendrick Bourne
Bourne will continue to be hyped. After all, he is a team's WR2 and still quite available to teams in free agency. But in Week 6, the gap between Tucker and Bourne is massive.
Tucker has a far better matchup, better per-game results to date, and thus a more proven role on a more successful team and offense. You are starting Tucker in Week 6 without hesitation.
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