President Trump is preemptively blaming Sen. John Cornyn and Karl Rove for "doing everything possible to make it hard for Ken Paxton" to win the Texas Senate race.
Why it matters: The president is publicly spinning what would be a disaster for Republicans on election night. Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988.
- "If Ken Paxton loses, it will be because of WEAK and INEFFECTIVE Political Hacks like John Cornyn and Karl Rove," Trump posted on Truth Social.
- Trump won Texas by 14 points just two years ago.
What to watch: Trump's post comes the same day FEC campaign finance reports confirmed Elon Musk's efforts to help Paxton across the finish line.
- Musk gave $158 million to the Senate GOP's main super PAC in September over two transactions, as Axios reported Thursday morning.
- The day after each Musk donation, SLF made an equal-sized transfer to a Texas PAC— a pop-up super PAC dedicated to electing Paxton.
The big picture: A new poll this week in Texas showed Democrat James Talarico with a narrow lead over Paxton, 50% to 47%.
- Republican leaders warned Trump for months that if Paxton won the primary against Cornyn it would be cost the party far more to keep the seat.
- Those predictions are proving true, with more than $500 million in ad spending already flowing into the Texas Senate race, according to AdImpact.
- "Got to be more careful when you run with the big dogs," Cornyn told Semafor earlier in October after audio leaked from a Paxton event in D.C.
The other side: Talarico is getting pummeled with some of that money, but he's far from defenseless. He was already on the air in August, when Paxton and Republicans were still figuring out their game plan — and who would foot the bill.
- Talarico raised $64 million in the third quarter off an army of small donors. His campaign said 97% of contributions were under $100. Talarico's fundraising prowess allowed him to raise hard dollars, which command lower ad rates.
- "Oh my god, holy crap, I saw Talarico," Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) said on Thursday. "I don't even know how you raised $64 million in a quarter. I mean, that's a number that's mind-blowing."
- Paxton brought in $18 million.