A dispute over school headscarf restrictions and Azerbaijan’s ties with Israel have exposed differences between Baku and its close ally Turkey, but analysts say their shared energy and strategic interests give both countries strong reasons to contain the fallout.
The public disagreement has tested a relationship traditionally described as “one nation, two states,” reflecting the countries’ close cultural ties and related Turkic languages.
Although the rhetoric has remained restrained at the top, other political figures have been more outspoken.
On October 12 Oktay Saral, a chief adviser to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, denounced as “unacceptable” Azerbaijan’s school uniform restrictions, which prohibit clothing that conflicts with the prescribed uniform or the secular principles of education.
“Wearing a headscarf … is a requirement of faith!” he wrote on X.
“We expect Azerbaijan to reverse this mistake as soon as possible.”
The following day President Ilham Aliyev’s ruling New Azerbaijan Party (YAP) hit back, denouncing Saral and lawmakers from Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) for their “populist and irresponsible statements.”
“The recent disinformation campaign targeting Azerbaijan has become increasingly aggressive, systematic and openly slanderous,” it said.
The confrontation reflected differences between Azerbaijan’s secular leadership and Erdoğan’s Islamist-rooted government. It also highlighted disagreements over Baku’s close relations with Israel, which supplied Azerbaijan with drones and other weaponry used in its 2020 war with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Turkey’s relations with Israel, by contrast, have deteriorated sharply over the war in Gaza. Erdoğan has accused Israel of genocide, while Ankara has maintained high-level contacts with Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist movement whose October 2023 attacks on Israel sparked the war.
Baku more ‘pragmatic’
Turkey’s pro-government media have amplified the dispute, with the Yeni Şafak daily denouncing the headscarf restrictions as a gesture toward Israel.
“We firmly reject attempts to deliberately distort Azerbaijani-Israeli relations, portray these ties as supposedly exceptional and use this as a basis for making political accusations against Azerbaijan,” YAP said.
Analysts see Baku’s response as evidence of its growing willingness to assert its independence, including in dealings with Turkey.
“The changing geopolitical order in the greater Eurasia has enabled Azerbaijan to pursue a more pragmatic foreign policy,” said Fuad Shahbazov, an independent political analyst, indicating that meant Baku now “categorically resists the attempts of external actors, even its ally Turkey.”
Ankara has also sought to ease tensions. AKP deputy chairman Kürşad Zorlu said the two sides knew how to tackle problems “within the family,” in what appeared to be a call for restraint.
At a regional summit in Baku on October 15, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan hailed “the unshakable bond … between our leaders” despite being tested “in very difficult times.”
Too much to lose
Observers say the two countries share too many interests to risk a rupture.
“The sometimes-tense relations with Moscow and the Iran war happening next door mean that Baku cannot afford to alienate an otherwise good partner,” Ivan Klyszcz of the Estonia-based International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) told AFP.
“Moreover, energy cooperation, ongoing well before the current spat, is too important for both parties,” he said.
“For Turkey, Azerbaijan is an essential gate for Central Asia, a region … seen by Ankara as strategic.”
Shahbazov argued that Azerbaijan’s energy resources and connections with Central Asia give it influence in the relationship, despite its much smaller population.
“The litmus test of the Baku-Ankara axis will depend on the latter’s further attitude and commitment to quickly get back on diplomatic tracks to handle this crisis,” he told Agence France-Presse.
“Azerbaijan possesses energy leverage and access to the Central Asian region, giving it leverage over Turkey,” he said.
Those connections matter to Ankara’s ambition to maintain its role as a transit hub between Europe and Asia.
Even so, points of friction remain.
On October 16 Azerbaijan’s prosecutor general’s office said Turkish newspaper columnist Celal Çiftçi had been declared internationally wanted over alleged calls for a coup and the promotion of “religious extremism.” An Azerbaijani court also issued an arrest warrant in his absence.
Çiftçi writes for the Şanlıurfa Olay newspaper.
© Agence France-Presse
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