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Saturday’s contest between No. 4 Ohio State and No. 5 Indiana in Bloomington will likely be one of the most important of the 2026 college football season.
For the Buckeyes (5-1), they can ill-afford another loss, especially since their remaining schedule is a menace. Ohio State gets a bye after Indiana, then it goes down the stretch against USC, Oregon, Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan.
The Hoosiers are in a better spot thanks to an unblemished record and an easier schedule, but they are also riding a historic 22-game winning streak and feel somewhat miffed by their perception in the college football community.
The defending champions haven’t lost since Dec. 20, 2024, yet they’re sitting at No. 5 in the country behind Georgia, Notre Dame, Miami and Ohio State.
The betting market certainly seems skeptical of the Hoosiers, as they’re 3.5-point home underdogs against the Buckeyes.
Ohio State vs. Indiana odds, prediction
Ohio State’s one-point loss to Texas on Sept. 12 is clearly viewed as a blip by the college football community. The Buckeyes are +390 favorites to win the national championship at DraftKings, and they’re sitting at the top of Bill Connelly’s SP+ power rankings after six weeks.
Against most teams, Ohio State’s weaknesses are not going to present themselves, but that changes when you’re taking on another juggernaut.
The Buckeyes have been splendid with the ball in 2026, and they have the country’s best game-breaker in wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, but the offensive line still has some question marks.
Ohio State’s offense ranks 68th in sack rate, and the running game has yet to become a strength because the O-line isn’t consistently getting a push.
That weakness can be exploited by a pressure-happy Indiana defense that is 18th in sack rate and seventh in yards allowed per rush.
Indiana’s offense has struggled to rip off big plays and keep defenses on their heels, but Josh Hoover has been superb at keeping things on script, which has allowed Indiana’s elite ground game to dictate the tempo every Saturday. Only Louisville and UCLA are averaging more yards per rush than the Hoosiers.
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Finding an edge in this game will involve some nitpicking, but I can’t get past Ohio State’s offensive line serving as the weak link against an Indiana defense that excels at wreaking havoc.
The Play: Indiana +3.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.