Whales on the spot market are becoming a key factor for the next BTC move. Large-scale whale orders are offering a support level just below $80,000.
Whales have set up large-scale spot orders for BTC, anticipating another downward move. BTC traded at $81,712.12 as of October 23, once again standing at a junction before a more dramatic move. The recent recovery above $83,000 did not lead to a bigger breakout, but was instead another liquidity sweep.
Whales have shown some readiness to buy after each small correction, and the recent positioning shows an expectation of a move below $80,000.
Recent data on whale orders shows an accumulation around the $78,000 to $79,000 level, with around $58.8M in available liquidity.
BTC trading volumes have fallen to around $26B in 24 hours, the middle of the range for the past three months. BTC has failed to break out above $85,000, instead returning to weeks of sideways trading and range-bound price moves.
Spot whales still react to futures market
The recent spot liquidity orders still track the BTC futures markets. As of October 23, the futures markets still have up to 10 times the volume of spot trading.
The spot orders have also shown conviction from specific whales, with one of the largest orders on Binance valued at $58M. Another big whale order was placed at $77,500, valued at $25M.
On Binance, the derivatives market has dominated spot trading for most of 2026, one of the longest periods of pure derivative dominance. Despite this, spot whale orders are closely watched for reversals and available liquidity.
At the end of October, BTC is also trading close to key cost basis levels. At $81,000, the breakdown below the ETF average cost basis may cause deeper selling. The current liquidity is just above the cost basis of newer whales that accumulated BTC in 2026.
The short-term prediction for BTC has mentioned a potential dip to $75,000, but that would require a removal of both spot and derivative liquidity on the downside before a lower price move. Despite the setbacks, Bitcoin trades safely above its average realized price of around $53,000.
BTC also trades with relatively low volatility, just over 1% for the past 30 days. The volatility metric has returned to a lower baseline after a spike in September, as Bitcoin enters another range-bound period.
The current repositioning happens at a neutral trading sentiment of 50 points, with no clear potential for a directional move.
Options market also support $80,000 level
The Deribit options market also shows traders are more likely to view $80,000 as a short-term support level. At this range, call options exceed put options, suggesting whales may expect a recovery. Put options are dominant at the $75,000 level, showing a threat of a deeper capitulation.
Recently, one large-scale whale sent over $163M in BTC to Deribit, suggesting the scale and moves of a market maker. The upcoming monthly options expiry on October 30 may also change the direction of BTC prices. On Deribit, the $78,000 level will have maximum pain for options traders.
The price moves of BTC on its lower range close to $80,000 is closely watched for a potential recovery and reclaiming higher ranges above $85,000. Call options are the most numerous at $88,000 and $98,000, suggesting those levels may trigger directional optimism for a more significant breakout.
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