Putin courts Trump and Xi for Ukraine deal as Africa faces a risk tied to Black Sea exports

Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed a three-way summit with US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss a possible settlement to the war in Ukraine.

• Russian President Putin proposed a summit with US President Trump and Chinese President Xi to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.
• No agreement has been reached on the summit's details or Ukraine's involvement, sparking concerns about Ukraine's role in negotiations.
• The ongoing conflict and disruptions in the Black Sea have severely impacted global grain supply chains, especially affecting African countries dependent on imports.
• The Black Sea Grain Initiative previously facilitated shipments to international markets and humanitarian operations, but it ended in July 2023.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Putin raised the idea during an October telephone conversation with Trump.

However, the proposed summit has not been confirmed. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the newspaper that discussions about a possible meeting were continuing, but there was no clear agreement on whether it would take place or what its agenda would be.

The proposal comes as Russia continues to seek a settlement on terms favourable to Moscow, while Ukraine maintains that any agreement must address its security and territorial concerns.

The positions of Washington, Moscow, Kyiv and Beijing will influence the prospects for negotiations.

US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have had strained relations.

When asked about the possibility of the proposed meeting, CNBC reported that Trump said it “could take place without Zelenskyy present,” adding that he was ready to do what was necessary “to end the war, whether somebody’s there or not.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has criticised steps that could strengthen Russia economically or politically, arguing that they could encourage Moscow to continue the war.

The proposed summit therefore raises questions about Ukraine’s role in negotiations and the influence major powers could have over the terms of a settlement.

For African countries, the diplomatic developments matter because the conflict has affected international trade, energy markets and agricultural supplies.

A change in the course of the war will definitely have far reaching effects beyond Europe.

How Black Sea disruptions affect Africa’s grain supplies

The Black Sea is an important route for exporting grain from Russia and Ukraine, two major suppliers of agricultural products to international markets.

Disruptions caused by attacks on ports, shipping and other infrastructure can raise transport costs, delay deliveries and add uncertainty to global grain supplies.

These risks matter to African countries that rely on imported wheat. Egypt, for example, is a major wheat importer.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by the United Nations and Türkiye, helped facilitate Ukrainian agricultural exports after Russia’s full-scale invasion disrupted maritime trade.

The initiative operated from July 2022 until Russia withdrew in July 2023.

During that period, millions of tonnes of grain and other food products reached international markets, including African destinations.

The United Nations also reported that the initiative enabled the World Food Programme to transport Ukrainian wheat for humanitarian operations.

Countries experiencing severe food insecurity, including Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Sudan, have faced broader challenges involving conflict, drought, displacement and limited access to affordable food.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres stressed the importance of maintaining agricultural trade, saying: “The world badly needs Ukrainian food and Russian food and fertilizers to stabilize markets and guarantee food security.”

Although the initiative has ended, the Black Sea remains an important agricultural export corridor.

Russia-Ukraine attacks disrupt Black Sea grain shipments

According to Modern Diplomacy, attacks on Ukraine’s Greater Odesa ports intensified in July.

A Guinea-Bissau flagged vessel dubbed Golden Leo sank after being hit by Russian forces on July 19, 2026 killing nine crew members and a Ukrainian pilot.

On July 22, no ships entered Odesa’s ports for the first time since Ukraine opened its own shipping corridor in 2023.

Ukraine’s strikes also disrupted Russian grain exports. The Moscow Times reported that “more than 90% of Russia’s Azov–Black Sea grain export capacity” was unable to operate by mid-August.

Russian wheat shipments fell to about 1 million tonnes in September, from 5.7 million tonnes a year earlier, according to Commodity Board.

Putin’s proposed meeting with Trump and Xi apparently does not guarantee a change in Black Sea shipping conditions.

However, any progress towards ending the war could have a positive effect on trade and food security in Africa.