A wave of deadly attacks on cargo ships in the waters of NATO members Bulgaria and Romania has jolted the alliance into calling an emergency meeting on Black Sea security. Yet any move to send NATO ships hinges on Turkey reversing its steadfast refusal to allow warships into the Black Sea.
Thursday saw two chemical tankers struck by drones close to a Romanian port.
It follows two similar attacks in Bulgarian waters in the past week. More than 20 sailors have been killed or remain missing.
“The war has come in full force to the Black Sea now,” said Yoruk Isik, a maritime analyst who runs the Istanbul-based Bosphorus Observer consultancy. “With the change in technology compared to the beginning of the war, drones really disrupted maritime traffic.”
According to Isik, the latest attacks underscore the growing spread of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. “Russian ports and Ukrainian ports are heavily targeted, but now even in NATO waters ships are getting hit, in Bulgarian waters, Romanian waters.
“We are at a point where there is no safe place.”
The latest strikes targeted vessels along a key Ukrainian shipping route, casting Russia as NATO’s prime suspect as Moscow intensifies its assault on Ukrainian trade.
After meeting on Thursday with the leaders of Bulgaria and Romania, both NATO members, Secretary-General Mark Rutte said the military alliance would “continue to work closely with our allies in the Black Sea, adjusting our deterrence and defence posture as needed”.
Romanian President Nicușor Dan said NATO would hold a crisis meeting next week to discuss the situation.
Gatekeeper to the Black Sea
NATO could deploy air defence systems against drones to protect Bulgarian and Romanian waters.
But any deployment of naval ships will depend on NATO member Turkey, which controls access to the Black Sea through the Turkish Straits under a long-standing international treaty, the 1936 Montreux Convention.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Ankara has blocked entry of Russian and Ukrainian warships or military vessels belonging to NATO members without a Black Sea coast, arguing for a diplomatic solution.
In recent weeks the Turkish government has sought to broker a ceasefire on commercial shipping, without success. Isik claims that failure, coupled with the latest escalation in attacks, is increasingly calling into question Ankara’s reliance on diplomacy alone.
“Either they’re going to have a breakthrough and the Kremlin is going to de-escalate, or Ankara is going to accept the reality that there needs to be a more credible force here – bigger vessels have to come,” the analyst said.
He pointed out that the navies of Romania and Bulgaria are not equipped to handle such an operation alone, with Cold War-era ships nearing the end of their lifespan.
“So Turkey's engagement is key to any successful NATO planning in the Black Sea.”
Russian leverage
Despite Turkish-owned cargo ships coming under attack in recent weeks, and Turkey’s deep reliance on Black Sea trade, Ankara has so far kept its powerful navy on the sidelines.
International relations expert Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University, says Turkey fears an escalation in the conflict and will be wary of allowing NATO ships into the Black Sea.
“I do not think the government would dare,” said Bagci. “Probably the government considers this a provocation to drag Turkey into the war... Turkey is afraid of getting involved in the Black Sea against Russia, this is somehow a trauma in the Turkish mind.”
Moscow also retains powerful leverage over Ankara, he suggested.
Russia’s state nuclear company Rosatom is about to complete a multi-billion-dollar nuclear power station in Akkuyu, southern Turkey. Ankara sees it as vital to the drive to reduce its heavy dependence on imported energy. “It is illogical to oppose Russia now while you let the Russians complete the nuclear plant,” said Bagci.
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Ankara also knows that letting NATO vessels in while barring Russian warships could provoke Moscow into contesting Turkey’s prized status as the gatekeeper to the Black Sea.
However, retired Turkish diplomat Selim Kuneralp, an expert on the Montreux Convention, warns Turkey’s control over Black Sea access is likely already in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s sights.
“This has probably had an impact on Russia’s ability to conduct the war, and I doubt that Putin is very happy with the situation,” said Kuneralp. “So if he were to win the war, there is a very strong risk that he will take the initiative of saying: ‘this is unacceptable and we want to have free passage of warships from now on, regardless of whether there is a war’.”
As a signatory, Moscow has the right to call for a revision of the Montreux Convention every five years.
For centuries, Russia fought repeated wars with the then Ottoman Empire for control of the Turkish Straits. In the early years of the Cold War, even Joseph Stalin tried his hand, but the United States intervened and thwarted him.
Now Ankara walks a tightrope between Moscow and its NATO partners to avoid a resurrection of those historical rivalries.