Cooper leads Whatley by at least 7 points in new NC Senate polls

New polling released Monday shows North Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley by at least 7 points, weeks ahead of the November midterm elections.

The Trafalgar Group’s polling showed Cooper’s lead at 48.8 percent, with Whatley behind at 40.9 percent. Polling also showed Cooper with larger support among different age demographics, with younger voters between 18 and 29 years backing him at 69 percent, along with voters between 30 and 39 at 68.4 percent.

Voters 65 and older favored him less than Whatley, with 50.2 percent choosing Whatley over the 39.9 percent backing Cooper.

Cooper also led among the 20.5 percent of Black respondents to the poll, receiving 67.1 percent support compared to 20.8 percent for Whatley.

The poll results resemble similar statistics from East Carolina University’s Center for Survey Research, which released last Thursday that Cooper led Whatley by 7 points, at 50-43, with 6 percent saying they were undecided.

Aggregate polling from The Hill’s election partner Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) shows Cooper with a 48.9 percent probability of winning if the election were held today, with Whatley having a 40.5 percent probability.

Both candidates seek to succeed retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.).

Democrats’ stakes in the Senate are high as they look for any opportunity to flip GOP-held seats to regain their majority, needing at least four seats and losing none.

Chris Cooper, a professor of public policy at Western Carolina University, previously told The Hill that the state’s demographics are not becoming bluer but that there is a balance in the rural parts of the state. North Carolina has a Democratic governor in Josh Stein, some Democratic state officials and a Republican majority in the state House.

Chris Cooper, no relation to the Senate candidate, said Democrats are also benefiting from Whatley’s status as being relatively unknown in the state compared with the four-time attorney general and two-term governor. 

Whatley served as the Republican National Committee chair from 2024 to 2025, playing a role in Trump’s second reelection contest. He previously served as North Carolina’ Republican Party chair.

The Trafalgar survey was conducted Oct. 8-10 and included 1,091 respondents. The margin of error is 2.9 percentage points.