Election Day is two weeks away. Here are twelve numbers that paint the portrait of the election that could change which party controls Congress, and with it, the course of American politics and foreign policy.
3–The net number of seats that Democrats need to gain in the House of Representatives to become the majority party in the next Congress, which will convene on January 3, 2027. Majority control brings with it the ability to select the Speaker of the House and the chairs of committees, to set the rules the House follows, and to determine its legislative agenda.
4–The net number of seats that Democrats need to gain to become the majority party in the Senate. If the Democrats gain three seats, the party balance in the Senate will be split 50-50. In that instance, the Republicans would retain control because Vice President JD Vance, in his constitutional role as president of the Senate, would provide the tie-breaking vote. If the Democrats pick up exactly four seats, their Senate majority would depend on making sure that none of the forty-nine Democrats, and neither of the two Independents who currently caucus with the Democrats (Senators Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont), opt to ally with the Republicans. In May 2001, Republican Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont declared himself an Independent who would caucus with the Democrats. His decision switched control of the Senate from the Republicans to the Democrats. As is the case with the House, control of the Senate would allow Democrats to set the legislative agenda and decide committee chairs. Given the Senate’s role in confirming nominations, becoming the majority party would give Democrats the power to block President Donald Trump’s executive-branch nominations as well as his judicial nominations, including appointments to the Supreme Court.
$4.28—The average price nationally for a gallon of gas. It was $2.98 on February 28, 2026, the day that Trump announced the start of Operation Epic Fury. That 44 percent price jump will cost the typical American household as much as $1,200 in 2026. The jump in diesel prices has been evengreater, rising from $3.72 in February 2026 to $6.32 today. These higher fuel costs, which have hit lower-income and rural voters the hardest, have become emblematic of the affordability crisis that many Americans feel and are directly traceable to Trump’s decision to launch a war that two-thirds of Americans now regard as a mistake.
9— The Democrats’ percentage point lead over Republicans in an average of national polls on the so-called generic congressional ballot question that asks respondents which political party (Democrat, Republican or Independent) they would vote for if the election were held today. Not surprisingly, parties that build large leads on generic congressional ballot metric generally fare well in the midterms. When the Democrats had a similar lead in 2018, they picked up forty-one seats.
9—The net number of House seats that theoretically shifted to the Republicans after this year’s mid-decade redistricting efforts were completed. Republicans saw fifteen seats shift their way in seven states: Alabama (one), Florida (four), Louisiana (one), North Carolina (one), Ohio (two) Tennessee (one), and Texas (five). Redistricting in California (five) and Utah (one) tilted six seats toward the Democrats. The question now is whether these gerrymanders will turn into “dummymanders” by diluting partisan strength to the point that some safe House seats are suddenly in play.
29—The number of days after Election Day in 2024 before the final House race was decided. Democratic candidate Adam Gray’s victory in California’s 13th congressional district was not called until December 4, 2024, almost a month after Election Day. Gray’s experience provides a useful reminder that it can take weeks, especially in California, to get a final vote. In most election years, slow vote counts do not matter. They take on outsized importance, however, whenever the race for party control of the House and Senate is narrow and the political climate is as tense and combative as it is in the United States today.
31—The average number of seats that the president’s party has lost in the House of Representatives in the past five midterm elections. The biggest loss came in 2010 when President Barack Obama saw his fellow Democrats lose sixty-three seats in the House. The smallest loss came in 2022 when Democrats lost just nine seats with Joe Biden in the White House.
35–The number of Senate seats up for grabs in 2026. Thirty-three Senate seats would ordinarily have been up for election this year. However, two additional seats are being contested because Republicans Marco Rubio of Florida and JD Vance of Ohio resigned their Senate seats in January 2025 to join the Trump administration.
43.2—The average voter turnout in the past five midterm elections. The highest turnout—50 percent—came in 2018 during Trump’s first term in office. The lowest turnout—36.7 percent—came in 2014, during President Barack Obama’s second term in office. Voter turnout in the midterm elections runs substantially lower than in presidential elections. Voter turnout in the four of the past five presidential elections topped 60 percent. The one outlier, the 2012 election, had a voter turnout of 58.6 percent.
47–The number of states that permit some form of early and/or mail-in voting. So as you read this article, millions of votes have already been cast.
60.2.—The percentage of Americans in an average of national polls that views Trump unfavorably. In comparison, 37.1 percent of Americans view him favorably. Those two numbers mean that Trump’s net approval rating stands at -23.1 points two weeks out from Election Day. Unpopular presidents are always a liability in the midterms for their fellow party members.
$11.6 billion—The amount of money that the advertising intelligence company AdImpact projects will be spent on political ads by federal and state races during the 2025-26 midterm cycle. That is $400 million more than was spent during the 2023-24 presidential cycle. The biggest spenders will be super PACs, which face no limits on the contributions they can receive from individuals or organizations, and so-called dark money, spending from political groups that are not required to publish the names of their donors. Spending decisions by political candidates themselves will be a much smaller slice of the total given the limits on campaign donations. As with all elections, it is unclear whether this spending will change the underlying election fundamentals. Campaigns can spend a lot without accomplishing much, especially when the opponent broadcasts contrary messages and voters tune out most of what they hear.
Oscar Berry and Jack Patton assisted in the preparation of this article.
Other posts in this series on the 2026 U.S. midterm elections: