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AI Could Reshape Jobs in Pakistan as 61% of Service Workers Face High Exposure: World Bank

২২/১০/২০২৬

Artificial intelligence could significantly change the nature of jobs in Pakistan, with 61% of workers in the services sector employed in occupations with above-median AI exposure, according to a World Bank assessment.

The findings, outlined in the Pakistan Development Update’s analysis titled Job Opportunities and AI in Pakistan, show that the potential impact of AI varies sharply across the economy. Services face the greatest exposure, while agriculture is relatively insulated from the technology’s immediate effects.

Importantly, high exposure does not mean that 61% of service-sector workers are expected to lose their jobs. It means their occupations involve tasks that AI could potentially perform or assist with.

The report estimates Pakistan’s average occupational AI exposure score in 2024 at 0.48 standard deviations below the median occupation, broadly in line with other emerging markets and developing economies.

Which Jobs in Pakistan Are Most Exposed to AI?

The World Bank found that 61% of service-sector workers hold jobs with above-median AI exposure. The corresponding figures are much lower in other sectors: 7% in manufacturing, 5% in other industries, and less than 1% in agriculture.

Within services, wholesale and retail trade, financial and insurance activities, real estate, and education stand out. In each of these subsectors, more than 80% of workers are employed in occupations classified as highly exposed to AI.

Jobs involving information processing, administrative duties, and knowledge-intensive tasks are particularly likely to change as organizations adopt AI tools. However, the report distinguishes between AI replacing certain tasks and helping employees perform them more efficiently.

In 2024, approximately 18% of employed workers in Pakistan were in occupations with both high AI exposure and high potential for human-AI complementarity. By comparison, 8% worked in highly exposed occupations with low complementarity, where the potential for substitution may be greater.

Real estate and education are identified mainly as sectors where AI may complement workers, offering opportunities to improve productivity rather than simply replace people.

AI Skills and Workforce Preparation Will Be Critical

Wholesale and retail trade deserves particular attention because it employs a substantial number of workers and includes both AI-complementary and potentially substitutable roles. The sector’s overall employment size means changes in how businesses adopt AI could have wider implications for Pakistan’s labour market.

Agriculture, despite employing a large share of the workforce, remains concentrated in occupations with low measured AI exposure. That does not rule out productivity gains from agricultural technology but suggests fewer immediate changes to the tasks performed in many agricultural jobs.

The World Bank cautions that the actual employment impact will depend on the pace of AI adoption, access to relevant skills, and investment in technologies that support workers. High occupational exposure alone cannot predict job losses.

For Pakistan, the findings highlight a growing need for practical AI training and upskilling, particularly in services. Helping employees work alongside AI could allow businesses to improve productivity while preparing workers for changing job requirements.