With El Niño conditions projected to contribute to 1,200 deaths in the country, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) is advising the public to consider water storage and collection systems to help manage water needs during periods of extreme heat.
The conditions typically result sin below-normal summer rainfall across South Africa, potentially increasing the risk of water shortages and placing additional pressure on water resources.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon involving unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It influences atmospheric circulation, changing rainfall and temperature patterns around the world.
According Hannelee Doubell of SAWS, the above normal temperatures with a higher frequency of heatwaves and extreme heat events could be expected over most of the country.
"In contrast to El Niño, we actually expect less extreme weather with regards to rainfall events in general, with regards to extreme heat events these tend to be around December, January where the heat peaks.
“However, at a seasonal timescale we cannot indicate when these events will occur during the summer season, we recommend monitoring the short range weather weekly forecasts," she said
"There are two events that stand out for the differing impacts, making the point that we do not always get the same result from an El Niño even though the typical impacts are highly likely.
“These events were the 1982/3 summer season that brought terrible dry conditions and heavily impacted agriculture specifically, then the 1997/8 summer season that actually gave us above-normal rainfall during the latter parts of summer," Doubelee added.
She said current El Niño was on track to surpass those events.
However, there was not enough evidence to expect a more intense impact she said.
She advised the public to keep track of the short range weather forecasts and alerts from the SAWS and be prepared to act when these warnings were released.
As the threat of El Niño raises concerns about food production due to drought, local farmers say they are prepared to face the heat.
Farmers
North Coast farmer Seniren Naidoo advised farmers to accept the reality early and not gamble on hope.
"Do not plant your entire land if water is scarce. It is better to intensively manage a smaller, well-mulched, and well-watered plot that yields something, rather than a massive field that fails completely.
“Protect your soil cover like gold, reduce your herd size early to match your available grazing capacity before the animals lose condition, and conserve your cash," he advised.
Naidoo is farming over 50 acres of mixed vegetables, with a focus on indigenous African and exotic vegetables.
He has been farming for over the last 15 years.
To measure and protect available soil moisture, Naidoo said he did not have digital sensors and relied on practical methods to measure it.
“I use the ‘feel method’ digging down 15 to 30 centimetres into the root zone to see if the soil forms a ball or crumbles. To protect this moisture, we have strictly adopted conservation agriculture principles. We harrow back any organic matter which keeps the soil moist from the decaying matter."
He said this dramatically reduced evaporation from the soil surface and keeps the root zones cool.
To save water for the anticipated El Niño, Naidoo revealed he has always practiced precision irrigation.
"Although more labour intensive, it outweighs the over use of water. Water schedules have always been in early morning and late afternoon to combat evaporation and allow for plant uptake. As the focus of my operations are indigenous African vegetables such as pigeon pea, amaranth, ground nuts and beans, most are drought tolerant already," said Naidoo.
He added unfortunately with leafy vegetables and other herbs, there were no drought tolerant varieties.
"On some crop lines we have been able to switch to early maturing from six months to four months which has helped significantly in reducing water consumption.
“Relying blindly on the first spring rain is a trap during an El Niño year, as it is often a ‘false start’ followed by a long dry spell that kills emerging seedlings. We wait until we have received cumulative rainfall that penetrates at least 20 to 30 centimetres into the soil profile," he said.
The young farmer said this allows the soil to remain moist for a longer period of time, which allows the plant to grow stronger.
Naidoo said his main defence and measures against El Niño was diversifying his farm activities and maximising water harvesting.
"We have cleared our water furrows and began dam scooping of sludge. We are also strictly controlling weeds, as weeds are thirsty competitors that steal scarce water and nutrients from our primary crops," he added.
When asked about back up plans against heat conditions, Naidoo said he had planned strategically such that from El Niño peak till it may subside, he should be harvesting instead of planting.
"However, the snowball effect of that will catch up with us in the next season. However with farming, there is no solid escape from that reality and the main thing is to budget and keep reserves to keep going into the foreseeable future," he said.
Donovan Gumede, a Durban based farmer, said he was ready for the anticipated heatwaves.
"We recently constructed a new borehole and added two 10 000 litres water tanks to ensure we have enough stored water for irrigation. We have also learned a new rule of irrigating, where we cut plastic bottles and put them on top of the crops which makes it easy to keep soil moisture. And this method also helps to save water.
“Everytime we irrigate, we pour water through plastic bottles which saves more water," said Gumede.
He urged other farmers to develop water saving methods for irrigation.
"I advise other farmers to avoid spray sprinklers when doing irrigation because those waste water. I also advise farmers to ensure that they have enough water sources ahead of anticipated heatwaves," said Gumede.
Department of Water and Sanitation
Wisane Mavasa, spokesperson for Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS), pointed out that historically, El Niño conditions have frequently been associated with below-average rainfall, drought, agricultural production losses and increased water stress.
"The DWS have implemented a risk-based approach to identify, assess and manage potential impacts on water resources and water services at an early stage. Our monitoring is focused on rainfall and catchment conditions, river flows and dam inflows, national and system-specific dam storage levels.
“National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC) issued an El Niño Advisory for disaster management stakeholders in July 2026, calling for strengthened drought preparedness and response measures, including the review of contingency plans, resilience-building initiatives, risk reduction measures and public awareness," she said.
Mavasa revealed during August, DWS engaged key stakeholders, including the Agricultural Research Council (ARC), water boards, catchment management agencies, municipalities and the agricultural sector to strengthen preparedness and coordinate measures to mitigate potential drought impacts.
"The engagements focused on water system operations, water availability, allocation and supply management interventions to support the sustainable management of available water resources.
“The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Reference Group, comprising climate scientists, researchers and institutional experts, including representatives from SAWS, ARC, universities and the CSIR, provides scientific assessment, monitoring, forecasting and advice on potential ENSO-related impacts. The 2026/27 ENSO Summit took place on September 26."
Mavasa said the department will continue to monitor water availability and manage water use allocations in accordance with approved system operating rules and prevailing hydrological conditions.
"Unfortunately, municipal water distribution systems in the Gauteng and eThekwini metropolitan areas remain highly vulnerable to spikes in demand due to heat waves. There has been little progress in reducing the average consumption of water per capita, non-revenue water and physical losses or leaks in these municipalities, and investment in storage and pumping capacity remains inadequate.
“In Gauteng and eThekwini, the average consumption of water per capita per day remains at approximately 250 litres, against the international average of 173 litres," she said.
According to the department of water, in Gauteng, non-revenue water is around 47 percent, and physical losses 27 percent. In eThekwini, non-revenue water is around 56 percent, and physical losses 40 percent.
Mavasa highlighted there is a high risk that the anticipated hotter and drier conditions associated with El Niño may intensify seasonal demand peaks, thereby increasing the risk of prolonged water supply disruptions in Gauteng and eThekwini, between October 2026 and March 2027.
"DWS sets abstraction limits on water boards and other authorised water users. The abstraction limits are set at levels to enable a continuous and stable supply of water, through most drought conditions.
“Abstraction limits are progressively reduced when monitoring indicates that water resources are under significant stress or that severe drought conditions are developing," said Mavasa.
She advised to avoid prolonged water supply disruptions this summer, municipalities must put in place water-use restrictions expeditiously, as advised by DWS and the water boards, and must ensure that they are effectively enforced.
"Municipalities will also need to communicate effectively with their residents to explain the importance of reducing demand. The key issue is whether the municipalities will reduce the leaks in their distribution systems, reduce the average daily consumption of water per capita, and put in place and enforce water-use restrictions timeously if needed."
"For the agriculture sector, preparing for an El Niño dry season means managing water as a limited resource from the start, rather than waiting until shortages occur.
“Farmers are advised to closely monitor dam levels, boreholes, soil moisture, and rainfall forecasts. Daily decisions should focus on using water efficiently, prioritising high-value crops, repairing leaks, and reducing unnecessary irrigation, said Mavasa.
She added farmers should start now to prepare for intensive implementation of water conservation and water demand management measures.