Two former premiers from opposite ends of the political spectrum say that UCP must endure a post-referendum reckoning

Jason Kenney has a message for those who believe Alberta is getting a raw deal from Ottawa, and are planning to vote for separation on Oct. 19.
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“We are the winners of Canadian confederation,” Kenney said Tuesday at an Edmonton Chamber of Commerce luncheon. “We’re the most prosperous province, by far.”
The former UCP premier has joined former NDP premier Rachel Notley to warn Albertans about the potential dangers of separating from Canada. They are working under the umbrella of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, and spoke to a crowd of about 200 at the Royal Glenora Club.
Kenney said that even if separatists’ lose, if they get enough support to remain a political force, it will be a “never-ending trip to the dentist” for Alberta.
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Premier Danielle Smith has touted some recent political wins, including the federal government’s declaration that the Pacific Link pipeline is in the nation’s interest, and said that they are the result of Alberta’s vocalization of its collective anger.
But Kenney warned that this anger will create a lingering sense of uncertainty that will drive investors away. And he added that Albertans need to look no further than Quebec as an example.
The Calgary Chamber of Commerce issued a report stating that it estimates separation could cost Alberta the equivalent of $62 billion annually. And Kenney backed up to the 1970s, a time when Montreal was Canada’s economic hub and largest city. But, even though the separatists have yet to win the day in Quebec, the debate that emerged in the 1970s did enough to drive head offices to Toronto. And then Toronto soon passed Montreal as Canada’s largest city. He worries that Alberta will try to emulate Quebec’s “asymmetrical federalism,” which gives the province its own police force, its own pension plan and some clear distinctions from Ottawa.
“It’s (Quebec) the poorest large jurisdiction in North America,” said Kenney. “Why would we want to replicate that?”
Notley warned that the separatist sentiment is inflamed when the boom-and-bust economy is in a bust cycle.
“We need to recognize that the anger is coming from a place of real need,” said Notley.
Edmonton Chamber president Doug Griffiths is a former Progressive Conservative cabinet minister who once supported the idea of more provincial control over the economy and police force, until he was commissioned to be part of a fact-finding group on those very topics. He said that when they opened the books on what it would cost Albertans, he recognized that these notions were “stupid.”
And he warned against going to the ballot box angry. He said core separatists make up a very small part of the population. It’s the “send the message to Ottawa” crowd that scares him.
“If you’re angry, you’re not going to make smart decisions.”
Kenney and Notley agreed that there will need to be a lot of soul-searching within the UCP post-referendum.
Kenney said that Alberta separatism has a nearly 50-year history in this province, since the Liberal government of Pierre Trudeau introduced the National Energy Program. He counted almost 20 federal and provincial separatist parties that have come and gone, and they traditionally only got one to two per cent of the vote. The problem for hardcore separatists, Kenney argued, is that they could not translate their loud minority into votes at the ballot box.
He said that COVID, and the lessons learned from the hard right in the United States. changed that. Anti-vax factions appeared in the UCP, just like hardliners changed the direction of the Republican Party to the south. Instead of forming their own separatist parties, Kenney said the radicals instead started to “infiltrate” the UCP.
And he said the party needs to weed that separatist element out after Oct. 19.
Notley said that she’s concerned that “people will need to trust the results” and that the “subsequent battle within the UCP is contained.”
After the event, Kenney told reporters that the UCP, formed out of the merger between the Tories and the Wildrose Party, was committed to a united Canada. He said that, while Premier, he eliminated about three dozen potential UCP candidates because of their recent stances on separatism.
“I would just say that if anybody had told me they were running as a candidate, as leader, committed to advancing Western separatism, they would not have been permitted to run. Period. Full stop,” Kenney said
“This is not an issue of which you can be half pregnant. You’re either for Canada, national unity, or you’re not. And if you’re not, you’re still a citizen. You’re welcome to be involved in democracy. Go and do that in a separatist party… It was loyalty to a united Canada that was included in the merger agreement that was ratified. That was the basis of the creation of the UCP, and I’ll say more than that. If that language had not been in the agreement, if the Wildrose signed and refused to accept it, I would have walked away from the table. There would have been no UCP.”
He said Quebec’s process is more honest because the Parti Québécois is a separatist party that runs provincially. The separatist element is there for everyone to see.
Notley said Premier Danielle Smith has to be a lot tougher on her party.
“There are members of that caucus and members of that cabinet who will not commit to voting to support Canada and supporting Alberta in Canada, and they should be ejected from caucus, and that’s exactly what the leader should do,” said Notley. “And in failing to do that, she is abdicating her obligation to Albertans and to Canadians.”
Last week, Smith said she had voted for Alberta to remain in Canada, and urged all Albertans to follow her lead.
Notley said she’s skeptical when it comes to Smith’s sincerity.
“I am one of the most skeptical Albertans about the current premier’s commitment to remaining in Canada, and the action she’s taken to date in terms of everything around this referendum, this question, the other questions aligned with it, all the things,” said Notley. So, hopefully people will, for other reasons, listen to the much louder voices that have been in play for some time, and and make the right choice to to vote to stay in Canada.”
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