More than four million children in Afghanistan are expected to need treatment for acute malnutrition in 2027 as the country faces the highest levels recorded for the period, according to a new assessment conducted by UN agencies, humanitarian organizations and other partners.
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, a multiagency initiative that analyzes food insecurity and malnutrition, estimates that 4.04 million children ages 6 months to 5 years will experience acute malnutrition next year, a 9% increase from the estimate for 2026.
Nearly 1.1 million of those children are expected to suffer from severe acute malnutrition, an increase of 16% from 942,000 this year. Another 2.95 million are projected to experience moderate acute malnutrition.
The assessment also projects that 1.27 million pregnant or breastfeeding women will suffer from acute malnutrition in 2027, up about 7% from 1.19 million this year.
The analysis said malnutrition is being driven by a combination of disease outbreaks, poor diets, food insecurity, inadequate water, sanitation and hygiene conditions and declining access to health and nutrition services.
Approximately one-third of nutrition sites have been closed or suspended, reducing access to essential services, according to the assessment.
The report said 61% of children were reported sick, while 3.3 million cases of diarrhea had been recorded by August, including 2.6 million cases of acute watery diarrhea. It also cited 26,141 measles cases, 493 cholera cases and 36 polio cases in 2026.
Only about one-third of children receive a minimum acceptable diet, while nearly 60% consume unhealthy food, according to the assessment.
The nutrition outlook is expected to deteriorate further in parts of the country. Ten provinces are currently classified as having Critical levels of acute malnutrition, while 11 are classified as Serious.
By April through July 2027, 14 provinces are projected to face Critical levels of acute malnutrition and another 15 are expected to be at Serious levels. That would leave 29 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces requiring urgent action.
Millions facing food insecurity
The worsening malnutrition situation comes alongside growing food insecurity.
An estimated 15.9 million people, or 32% of Afghanistan’s population, are currently experiencing Crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity. That figure is projected to rise to 19.2 million people, or 38% of the population, between November 2026 and April 2027 during the winter lean season.
Of those, about 5 million people are expected to face Emergency levels of food insecurity.
The number of people currently experiencing Crisis or worse conditions has increased by about 2 million compared with the same period last year.
The assessment cited weak purchasing power, unemployment, inflation, higher production and transportation costs, trade disruptions and large-scale returns from neighboring countries as factors worsening household access to food.
More than 1.2 million Afghans returned from Iran and Pakistan in 2026, putting additional pressure on labor markets and services, the assessment said.
Humanitarian food assistance is also expected to fall significantly short of needs. During the November-April period, assistance covering about half of daily caloric requirements is expected to reach only 1% of the population.
Women and girls face particular vulnerabilities. Rural female-headed households were twice as likely as male-headed households to experience moderate hunger — 36% compared with 18% — while restrictions on women’s education, employment and participation in public life continue to limit income-generating opportunities and access to resources.
The assessment called for expanded food assistance, protection of nutrition treatment services, improved disease prevention and water and sanitation measures, and increased support for livelihoods and agriculture.
It warned that early action is needed to prevent further increases in severe acute malnutrition and child mortality, particularly in the most affected provinces.
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