The government has floated raising floor area ratios at the third-phase new towns to expand housing supply in the greater Seoul area, but about one-third of the public housing units there have already broken ground and are difficult to alter. Using only the remaining sites, the additional homes that could be built come to only slightly more than half of the Korea Land & Housing Corporation's estimate. Analysts say design changes must be rushed before construction begins block by block.
Public-sector housing that has broken ground or will break ground at the third-phase new towns by the end of this year totals 39,000 units, according to LH and other sources on the 22nd. LH accounts for 38,000 units and other agencies for 1,000. Measured against the 124,000 public housing units within the third-phase new towns' total supply of 193,000 homes, that amounts to 31.5%, or 20.2% of the overall total. Because floor area ratios are hard to raise on blocks already under construction, these units are effectively excluded from any increase.
Momentum for the density increase built after President Lee Jae-myung visited the Gyeyang third-phase new town in Incheon on the 20th and called for it. LH President Lee Sung-hoon reported at the site that raising the average floor area ratio at the third-phase new towns from about 206% to 250% or higher could deliver 30,000 to 40,000 additional homes.
But applying that same increase — from an average of 206% to 250% — to the 85,000 public housing units excluding this year's construction starts yields only about 20,000 additional homes. That is as little as half the figure the LH president cited. The number approaches 40,000 only if the floor area ratio is pushed to 300%.
That is why analysts say design changes must be accelerated. Once a construction schedule is set, adjusting the floor area ratio becomes all but impossible. District plans and designs must be revised before ground is broken for the volume to increase. If the revision process drags on, construction could be delayed, clashing with the government's push for speed in supply. Park Won-gap, chief real estate specialist at KB Kookmin Bank, said raising floor area ratios at the third-phase new towns is a far easier way to increase supply than the measures announced so far, adding that procedures should be shortened as much as possible and increases should focus on units that have not yet broken ground.
Some argue the floor area ratio on remaining sites should be raised to 300% rather than 250%. Because sites already under construction were designed in the low 200% range, other sites must go to 300% to bring the overall average to 250%, they say. Analysts note that 300% would not be excessive, given that redevelopment and rebuilding projects in Seoul already apply floor area ratios of around 350%, and that the first-phase new towns are pursuing improvement projects using ratios of 300% to 350% under the special act on aging planned cities.
Later-stage sites still in the early phases of development offer more room for adjustment. Gwangmyeong-Siheung entered compensation procedures in July, and Uiwang-Gunpo-Ansan and Hwaseong Jinan must also work through compensation before proceeding. Other public housing sites including Gimpo Hangang 2, Incheon Guwol 2, Yangju Jangheung and Guri Gyomun can be reviewed for potential increases according to their development stage. Those sites are better positioned to adjust land use and housing layout plans than districts where construction is already well advanced.