Bitcoin Faces A Critical Test At $80K Before November

Bitcoin enters November under pressure after losing more than 3.5% since the beginning of October. Outflows recorded by ETFs, the rise of the risk of US rate hikes, and the surge in oil prices constitute its three main tests.

Bitcoin ETFs record outflow of 635 million dollars

Bitcoin is trading around 80800 dollars on October 25, after briefly falling below 80000 dollars the day before. The crypto thus approaches its second consecutive negative October, while this period is traditionally considered favorable by investors.

Caution was also evident in US spot Bitcoin ETFs. These products recorded net outflows of 635.6 million dollars on October 22. This is their largest daily withdrawal since June 25.

Three factors could now determine Bitcoin’s evolution in November :

• ETFs must regain regular inflows to support institutional demand ;
• The risk of another Fed rate hike is rising ;
• Oil exceeds 117 dollars and could fuel US inflation.

The session on October 22 erased part of the inflows recorded in the previous days. BlackRock’s IBIT fund lost 254.1 million dollars, while Fidelity’s FBTC experienced 217.5 million in withdrawals. ARKB, offered by Ark Invest and 21Shares, recorded an outflow of 109.4 million.

However, this day alone is not enough to prove a lasting withdrawal of institutional investors. Between October 19 and 22, Bitcoin ETFs maintained a positive balance of around 439 million dollars thanks to two strong inflow sessions. On October 23, outflows then reached 137.9 million. Flows are thus unstable, rather than uniformly bearish.

Inflation rekindles threat of rate hikes

The second test comes from US monetary policy. The market-assigned probability of a Fed rate hike exceeded 10%, up from about 5.5% the day before.

This development remains a minority: the main scenario is not yet a hike. However, it shows some investors are reconsidering the rate trajectory after the latest price data.

US inflation reached 3.7% year-on-year in September. The consumer price index also increased by 0.6% month-on-month, after a 0.4% rise in August. Gasoline jumped 9.1% and accounted for more than half of the monthly price increase.

Higher rates generally weigh on Bitcoin and other risky assets. They increase bond yields and reduce the relative appeal of investments that pay no guaranteed income. They can also limit liquidity available for speculative investments.

The market will therefore watch upcoming employment, inflation, and consumption statistics. A new upward surprise would strengthen monetary risk. Conversely, a price slowdown could ease this pressure before the next Fed meeting.

Oil at 117 dollars weakens bullish scenario

The third risk concerns energy. Brent exceeded 117 dollars per barrel for the first time since March 19, amid heightened tensions between the US and Iran. It thus nears its annual high.

This rise can affect Bitcoin in two ways. First, it increases inflationary pressures by raising transportation and production costs. Then, it feeds risk aversion as investors fear an extension of geopolitical tensions or global supply disruptions.

The 17% decline recorded by Bitcoin in November 2025 fuels comparisons. This drop was its worst performance for that month since 2019. However, it does not prove a “November curse”.

The history even offers several counterexamples. In November 2024, Bitcoin rose more than 37%. Its monthly performance depends more on liquidity conditions, institutional flows, and the economic environment than on the calendar.

The 80000 and 75000 dollar levels will now serve as supports to watch. To avoid the risk of another significant drop, Bitcoin must especially reclaim the 85000 dollar zone, while ETFs need to resume more consistent inflows.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.