Ecuador Power Deficit Hinges on 4 Factors

ECUADOR · ENERGY

The Ecuador power deficit hinges on four factors, El Comercio of Quito said on Sunday 18 October 2026: rain, demand, industry cuts and Colombian imports. The Mazar reservoir, the main water store of the Paute hydropower complex, stood about eight metres above its safe minimum.

For US readers the stakes are practical, because Ecuador uses the US dollar and its factories, shrimp farms and mines run on this grid. A dry spell that may last until December and a firm deadline for large firms touch supply chains and investors alike.

We covered the first Colombian announcement in Colombia Resumes Ecuador Power Sales 16 Oct, and the household outages in Ecuador Blackouts Hit Homes Despite Pledge. This article looks ahead at what each of the four factors could do over the coming weeks.

Why the Ecuador Power Deficit Is Hard to Close

Mazar stood at 2,122.99 metres above sea level on the morning of Sunday 18 October, the first reading below 2,123 metres in this crisis, the Ecuadorian outlet La República said from the official Celec Sur panel, and Expreso gave the same level. The plant must leave service at 2,115 metres, and the reservoir was full at 2,153 metres in late July.

Inflow to the Paute basin was 65.02 cubic metres a second on Saturday 17 October, 30.5% below the October average of 93.5, La República said. Expreso of Guayaquil put it at 66.36 on Sunday morning, 29% below the average.

Coca Codo Sinclair, the largest plant at 1,500 megawatts, needs 240 to 250 cubic metres a second for steady output of 1,200 megawatts. La República put the river at 152 on Friday 16 October, the lowest since March, against a long-run average of 292.

Thermal plants supplied 34.5% of the electricity produced on Sunday morning, against 20.8% for 2026 up to 16 October, La República said from data of the grid operator Cenace. Cenace estimates that Ecuador needs 1,391 megawatts of extra firm generation for the coming dry season.

If the Rains Return Within a Month

Refilling the reserves needs steady rain over the southern Andes and the Amazon, which El Comercio says would take at least 15 days. La República quotes technicians who put the need at about a month of constant rain.

Some projections place Mazar at its critical level around the third week of October if heavy rain does not come, La República said. At that mark the plant must leave service so that sediment does not damage its turbines.

El Comercio quoted Franz Pucha of the UTPL climate observatory, who expects less rain than normal until late November or December because of El Niño. He described a drop in rainfall rather than necessarily a drought.

If the Dry Spell Runs Into December

The load would then fall on thermal plants and on industry cuts, which began on 22 September with 185 high-voltage firms. They now reach about 8,900 medium-voltage firms, which are off the grid up to 72 hours a week since 12 October, and this week high-voltage firms are cut from Monday 19 to Wednesday 21 October and medium-voltage firms from Wednesday 21 to Friday 23, Expreso said.

Marco Acuña of the Consultative Council of Engineering and Economics told El Comercio last week that the 48-hour phase of the cuts saved only 3.5% of national consumption. He put the best case at 5% to 7%.

The government rules out scheduled home blackouts, but residents of several cities have reported cuts without official explanation, La República said. Maintenance work cut power from 03:00 to 06:00 in 15 provinces on Saturday 17 October, which adds no generation.

If Heat Pushes Demand Above 5,634 Megawatts

Ecuador averages about 5,200 megawatts of demand and hit a record 5,634 megawatts in July, El Comercio said. Heat expected in November and December could lift demand again.

Some industrial demand has also moved to weekends because of the weekday cuts, El Comercio said. Consultant Darío Dávalos told the paper that firms cannot stop production and may reschedule hours to make up lost days.

Colombia and the Thermal Plants as Cushions

President Daniel Noboa said on Friday 16 October that Colombia had restarted energy dispatch, and El Comercio’s report of it cites no Colombian confirmation. La República read the Cenace panel at 29 megawatt hours imported against 72 exported on Saturday, and a net import of only 5 megawatt hours by mid-morning on Sunday.

The interconnection allows about 450 megawatts, while experts put the shortfall at 1,000 to 1,391 megawatts, La República said. It put the cost of the Colombian power above US$0.47 a kilowatt hour, and El Comercio notes that Colombia has halted exports before to protect its own supply.

La República counts 27 thermal plants running at full capacity on 13 October with 1,211 megawatts, against a nominal fleet of 2,386 megawatts. Celec expects to recover 132.8 megawatts before 30 October, rented generators should add 45 megawatts from November, and a rented 260-megawatt barge is due in December.

The 15 December Deadline for Industry

Decree 32 of 15 June 2025 gave large high-voltage firms 18 months, until 15 December 2026, to generate their own power, Primicias and El Comercio explained. El Comercio’s Sunday article describes the date as the point when industry must leave the national grid and use its own thermal power.

Primicias counted 135 firms at risk on 24 September, after the Guayaquil Chamber of Industries said only 47 generate all their own power. Energy Minister Juan Carlos Blum said on 18 September that barge power would cost firms US$0.24 to US$0.44 a kilowatt hour, while Expreso reported a new industrial tariff of 27 to 35 US cents from 1 October, against about 12 cents before.

Noboa has said he will not move the date, Primicias reported. El Comercio recalls that the Ecuadorian Business Committee put the loss from the 2024 power limits at up to 1.4 points of GDP.

What It Means for You

US investors and exporters should treat the next two weeks as the test, because the reservoir, rain and Colombian flows decide whether the pain stays with industry. Fedexpor, the exporters’ federation, and other trade bodies have asked for scheduled cuts, a direct channel with the government and adjusted working hours, El Comercio said.

There are stabilisers, since engineer Fabián Jami of the Cieepi association says Ecuador is better prepared than in 2024, when outages ran up to 14 hours. He points to reservoir management and the recovery of part of the thermal fleet.

Our guides Ecuador Geopolitics Explained 2026 and Ecuador and Its Neighbours in the Andes set out the country’s position. Our Quito expat city guide and Cuenca expat city guide cover daily life.

What Is Not Known

The sources do not agree on how much Colombian power is flowing, because the presidential announcement and the Cenace panel readings differ, and El Comercio’s report cites no Colombian confirmation. The panel does not name the country of origin of imports.

Estimates of the rain needed range from 15 days to a month, and no source gives a firm date for Mazar to reach 2,115 metres. Figures for Coca Codo Sinclair’s output also differ between sources and days.

It is not known how many firms will meet the 15 December date, or whether the government will keep it. It is also unknown whether the rented barge due in December will arrive on time.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ecuador power deficit?

It is a shortfall of electricity supply that experts put at 1,000 to 1,391 megawatts, caused by low river flows at hydroelectric plants. Industry cuts, thermal plants and Colombian imports are the main stopgaps.

How close is Mazar to its limit?

Mazar stood at 2,122.99 metres on Sunday 18 October, about eight metres above its 2,115-metre safe minimum. At that minimum the plant must leave service.

Are homes facing scheduled power cuts?

The government rules out scheduled home blackouts, but residents of several cities have reported unexplained cuts. Industry faces cuts of up to 72 hours a week.

What happens on 15 December?

Large high-voltage firms must generate their own power under Decree 32, and Primicias counted 135 firms at risk on 24 September. Firms that miss the date could buy rented-barge power at a higher tariff.

What does it mean for US readers?

Ecuador uses the US dollar, so the strain hits exporters and investors rather than the currency. Rain, Colombian flows and the December deadline are the points to watch.

Sources: El Comercio, 18 October 2026; La República Ecuador, 18 October 2026; La República Ecuador, 17 October 2026; Expreso, 17 October 2026; El Comercio, 13 October 2026; Primicias, 24 September 2026; Expreso, 18 October 2026; Expreso, 17 October 2026; Expreso, 30 September 2026.

Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error

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