I'm living proof of the saying that "kids keep you young." My wife and I don't need social media. We've got multiple social barometers living in our house. But my usual reaction to every new trend or slang that enters their lexicon ("cooked" and "tuff" have been the new favorites) is skepticism. Before I try to figure out how much attention I need to put into what has them hyped, I try to figure out how serious they are about their enthusiasm.
Sunday's fantasy football action left me in a similar spot. We didn't get many massive box score performances from our stars. Instead, Week 6 was about our mid- and late-round picks or waiver-wire acquisitions. And with some giving us repeat results, the storylines coming out of Sunday should have us adjusting how we approach fantasy free agency on Tuesday.
Houston Gets a W in London
Both Trevor Lawrence and CJ Stroud were hooping all morning. They were the perfect pivot from whatever we had to watch on TNF. But as I was watching the Texans offense, a couple of things stood out.
what a throw from Stroud, too. pic.twitter.com/fz4EbOAKvThttps://t.co/2MaTqWpPgd
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 18, 2026
First, Stroud's command of the offense was at an all-time high. Jacksonville came into the game with the 12th-highest pressure rate. Houston had a twofold response. It used an extra lineman on 35.6% of its plays (a season-high), and Stroud was getting rid of the football in 2.31 seconds (a season-low). The result was not only his lowest pressure rate (8.6%) but also his highest EPA per dropback (0.35). More importantly, the Jaguars' defensive measures, which included blitzing Stroud on 31.4% of his dropbacks, didn't stop him from throwing the ball.
Week 4: -1.2% (PROE), 11.8 (passing aDOT)
Week 5: +4.4%, 8.0
Week 6: +3.6%, 8.2
I mentioned on Friday that the trade for Marvin Harrison Jr. signaled the team was looking for a new offensive identity. Nico Collins' Week 4 return was the start of a steady increase in the team's PROE. But the increased volume didn't result in shorter passes. Stroud's deep-ball rate ranked inside the top 12 in Weeks 4 and 5. Over the last three weeks, he's the most efficient passer on early downs. And going back to the above clip, part of the reason is the guy on the other end of the throw.
Jaylin Noel is the Texans' version of Josh Downs. A guy we want to see get more work, but buried on the depth chart. He hasn't been on the field for more than 75% of Stroud's dropbacks in a single game since joining the team. But when he gets the ball, good things happen.
Week 4: 3.54 (YPRR), 5.0 (YAC per Rec), 3 (First Downs or Touchdowns)
Week 5: 2.05, 4.6, 1
Week 6: 4.86, 11.8, 4
Since coming back to the lineup, Collins is the only pass-catcher with more first downs created than Noel. At the same time, Kayshon Boutte's routes and targets have been on a three-week slide. Xavier Hutchinson's utilization is on the same arc. Houston is adjusting as much of its personnel via extra linemen and TEs to keep Stroud upright and throwing forward. With Noel continuing to show he can keep the offense on schedule, adding Noel as a FLEX option will give a boost to your squad.
Colts Confusion
I'm trying to understand how we got here with the Colts. Alec Pierce was the revelation in '25. Combined with Michael Pittman Jr. and Tyler Warren, Daniel Jones had threats at all three levels. Indianapolis has receivers to cover Pittman's departure. But clearly, Pierce meant more to the operation than we figured.
Cor'Dale Flott gets the @Titans' 2nd INT of the game!
— NFL (@NFL) October 18, 2026
TENvsIND on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPluspic.twitter.com/3MY2SGycGh
To be fair, Jones' play might be our fault (it's not, but hear me out). Through the first month, he had a passing aDOT of 5.6 air yards. Bo Nix was throwing farther downfield (5.8). Jones had just one completion over 20 air yards. Even worse, favoring the short area of the field wasn't helping the offense.
(Weeks 1-4) EPA per Dropback: -0.21, 31st (out of 33 qualifiers – min. 48 dropbacks)
Passing Success Rate: 41.4%, 24th
Completion Percentage Over Expected: -1.7%, 29th
Jones was averaging the 13th-most dropbacks per game, but his inability to push the ball downfield, coupled with inaccuracies everywhere else, put a cap on the offense. They were averaging fewer first downs per game than the Chargers. Since then, Jones has been throwing farther (10.8), but as the clip above highlights, the connection with his receivers isn't there.
The tougher part is who's been earning the targets.
Keenan Allen signed with the Colts on August 19. He has just two fewer targets than Josh Downs, who leads the team with 42. And Allen missed a game. Credit to the veteran for turning his skill set of commanding the ball into an accolade, but this isn't the first time Allen has siphoned away work to his younger, up-and-coming peers.
2024: 23.0%, 19.2% (Odunze)
2025: 22.4%, 19.5% (McConkey)
2026: 22.9%, 21.7% (Downs)
Remember, Tyler Warren was out on Sunday. The void he left (4.2 aDOT) opened up opportunities for Downs, but also freed up looks on the outside for Allen, who had the better defensive matchup with the Titans' perimeter CBs. But in 2024, while Caleb Williams was acclimating to the NFL, Allen's understanding of what to do out of structure made him a critical piece of the passing game. He led the Bears' pass-catchers in yards and first downs on all throws over three seconds.
When playing with Justin Herbert (who we considered to be a robot QB), Allen's route-running skills and ability to create quick separation allowed him to out-target Ladd McConkey by 32 targets on throws in rhythm.
In short, Allen's experience makes him any QB's best friend. If the usage isn't an indication, the results should be. He leads the team in yards per route run and is the only other receiver with double-digit first downs. And with the Colts set to face the Vikings and Jaguars over the next two weeks, if you have either Allen or Downs on your roster, we should lower expectations for each.
Betting on Las Vegas
I know I can sound repetitive at times by citing the same metrics. But they tell the story and drive managers to decisions better than I can. Take Ashton Jeanty, for example.
Coming into the game, I’d lean toward starting him based on his prior utilization. He has top-10 marks in share of his backfield’s carries; only Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson have higher target rates, and Jeanty’s taken all but one goal-line carry. He was yet to find the end zone, but that type of workload leads to scores eventually. We just had to wait six weeks.
Ashton Jeanty gets the first TD on the board for the Raiders!
— NFL (@NFL) October 18, 2026
BUFvsLV on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPluspic.twitter.com/5dVDyKOnSO
A couple of notes here. First, as I said, Sunday marked Jeanty’s first time recording a rushing TD this year. Never mind the fact that it took a DPI from Brock Bowers to get the ball to the one-yard line. I say that because Jeanty has been in this type of situation before. In fact, he’s one of eight RBs with 10 or more cracks from inside the five. But his results lead me to my second point. His efficiency is making him a TD-dependent rusher.
Rushing Success Rate: 29.6%, 17th (of 18 qualifiers – min. 50% rush rate)
Adj. Yards after Contact per Att.: 2.61, 17th
Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 9.2%, 17th
Jeanty is the only RB with just one score after getting double-digit carries from the goal line. Injuries are the culprit. Jeanty noted he’s over the ankle injury, but is also dealing with plantar fasciitis. Despite him feeling better, he hasn’t crossed 60 rushing yards since Week 1. His longest run was for 19 yards back in Week 4. Luckily, he’s averaging six targets per game to prop up his fantasy total.
Jeanty logged full practice sessions all week and exited Sunday at 2.2 yards per carry. At the same time, Mike Washington Jr. logged his highest snap rate and share of the touches with more success on the ground. It doesn’t look like HC Klint Kubiak will rest Jeanty anytime soon. But in the meantime, Washington and Dylan Laube should be on benches everywhere.