•But core inflation still rising
By Yinka Kolawole & Elizabeth Adegbesan
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined to 14.63 per cent in September 2026 from 15.39 per cent the previous month of August, driven by a moderation in food prices, even as core inflationary pressures strengthened during the month.
The September headline inflation figure which indicates the fourth consecutive monthly decline since June, reflects a slowdown in the annual rate of price increases.
The National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, disclosed this in its Consumer Price Index, CPI, report released yesterday, showing that headline inflation fell Year-on-Year, YoY, by 6.35 percentage points from 20.98 per cent recorded in September 2025.
However, the moderation in headline inflation masked a divergent trend in underlying prices, as food inflation declined month-on-month while core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, accelerated.
According to the NBS, food inflation stood at 19.59 per cent year-on-year in September, down from 20.16 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation dropped to -1.55 per cent from 1.02 per cent in August, reflecting a decline in the average prices of several food items, including local rice, maize flour, guinea corn flour, eggs, onions, palm oil, potatoes, okra, tomatoes and plantain.
The bureau said the average annual food inflation rate for the 12 months ending September 2026 fell to 15.72 per cent from 28.37 per cent recorded in September 2025.
In contrast, core inflation rose to 12.95 per cent year-on-year in September, although this was significantly lower than the 22.11 per cent recorded in the corresponding month of 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, core inflation increased to 1.11 per cent from -0.06 per cent in August, indicating renewed price pressures in goods and services outside the volatile food and energy components.
The average annual core inflation rate for the 12 months ending September 2026 stood at 16.54 per cent, down from 25.68 per cent in September 2025.
The NBS also reported that the average change in the all-items CPI over the 12 months ending September 2026 was 15.80 per cent, compared with 27.31 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025.
A breakdown by state showed that Imo recorded the highest year-on-year headline inflation at 30.04 per cent, followed by Enugu at 22.38 per cent and Niger at 22.05 per cent. Taraba recorded the lowest rate at 1.78 per cent.
For food inflation, Lagos led with 34.40 per cent, followed by Imo at 33.79 per cent and Ondo at 31.49 per cent. Taraba recorded a negative food inflation rate of 7.47 per cent.
The September figures indicate easing annual inflation, but the increase in monthly core inflation suggests that underlying price pressures remain a concern.
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