MEXICO · US RELATIONS · SECURITY
Key Facts
- The country Mexico is the United States’ southern neighbour and a top trading partner, led since October 2024 by President Claudia Sheinbaum.
- What happened On Thursday 15 October, President Trump said the cartels govern Mexico and that he has told Sheinbaum so directly.
- The claims Trump said fentanyl entering the US has fallen 64% and that US forces have not yet used their full strength on land.
- The reply Sheinbaum has rejected US troops on Mexican soil and told Washington on 10 September not to use Mexico in its campaign.
- Power Index Mexico ranks 2nd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 71.4 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives a US strike on Mexico by 31 December a 3.4% chance (16 October, 3:44 a.m. ET).
- Still open Whether Sheinbaum answers Trump in public, and whether Washington moves from boat strikes to action on land.
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday 15 October that the cartels govern Mexico and that he has told President Claudia Sheinbaum so directly. He spoke at a lunch in the White House Rose Garden, less than three weeks before the US midterm elections.
Trump also claimed that fentanyl entering the United States has fallen 64% and defended US strikes on suspected drug boats. Sheinbaum, who opposes US military operations on Mexican soil, had not answered in public on Thursday.
Why Trump Says Cartels Govern Mexico
Trump told the Rose Garden lunch that cartels govern Mexico and that Sheinbaum is not happy to hear it. He also called her a great and wonderful woman.
He said Mexico should act against the cartels itself but is not able to do so right now. Mexican outlets Expansión and La Razón and the news agency EFE carried the remarks on Thursday.
The White House published a 36-minute video of the Rose Garden lunch on 15 October. Trump has made similar statements before, including on 13 March, when he said Sheinbaum should not have rejected his offer of help.
Boat Strikes and the Ground Question
Trump defended the US military campaign against boats that Washington says carry drugs, and said the strikes hit the traffickers hard. Critics quoted by EFE say the strikes have killed fishermen without trial.
He said the United States has not yet launched an all-out attack on land. La Razón reported that he described ground operations as only beginning and not yet at full strength.
Sheinbaum opposes any US military operation on Mexican territory, arguing that it would violate Mexico’s sovereignty. Mexican officials say cooperation at sea is limited to sharing intelligence and coordinated patrols.
How Mexico Answers the Claim
Omar García Harfuch, Mexico’s federal security secretary, said on Tuesday 13 October that a US attack in Mexican waters was never discussed. He described cooperation as an exchange of information and cited a recent joint operation by the US Coast Guard and the Mexican Navy.
Sheinbaum answered a similar charge on Thursday 10 September, after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Mexico’s efforts against cartels were far from enough. She said the United States has an election in November and should not use Mexico in its campaign.
Expansión reported that she has said several times that she turned down military help offered by Trump. Her government had not replied in public to the Rose Garden remarks on Thursday.
What the Numbers Show
Mexico’s government answers the claim that cartels govern Mexico by pointing to falling violence at home. Marcela Figueroa, who heads the national crime-data office, told Sheinbaum’s press conference on 13 October that murders averaged 42.2 victims a day in September.
That compares with 86.9 a day in September 2024, a fall of about 51%. Our guide to Mexico’s security and crime explains how these numbers are counted.
The 64% fentanyl figure is Trump’s own claim about how much of the drug now enters the country. It is separate from the murder statistics, which measure violence inside Mexico.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give a US strike on Mexico by 31 December a 3.4% chance (16 October, 3:44 a.m. ET). The market has drawn about US$3.5 million in total bets, and the December contract alone has about US$766,000 traded.
A separate market on whether the United States invades Mexico in 2026 prices a Yes at 1.5%. These are bets, not polls, and they can move fast on news from Washington.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For American voters and investors, the claim that cartels govern Mexico shows that Mexico is still a campaign topic before the 3 November midterm elections. Mexico’s murder figures for September show the other side of the argument that Mexico’s government makes.
No new policy was announced on Thursday, so border rules, tariffs and travel conditions stay as they were. The remarks matter mainly as a signal of how Washington frames Mexico before the vote.
What Is Not Known
It is not clear whether Sheinbaum will answer the claim that cartels govern Mexico, for example at her next morning press conference. Her government has so far framed US criticism as part of the American election campaign.
No date or plan for any US action on land has been announced. The period and measure behind Trump’s 64% fentanyl figure have not been published.
More: Mexico news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Trump say the cartels govern Mexico?
Yes, he said the cartels govern Mexico at a Rose Garden lunch on Thursday 15 October, according to Expansión, La Razón and EFE. He said he has told Sheinbaum directly and that she is not happy.
How did Sheinbaum respond to the claim that cartels govern Mexico?
Mexican outlets carried no new reply from her on Thursday. On 10 September she told Washington not to use Mexico in its election campaign.
Is the United States planning to attack cartels inside Mexico?
Trump said ground operations are only beginning and have not reached full strength. Mexico’s security secretary said on 13 October that US strikes in Mexican waters had not even been discussed.
Is the claim that fentanyl fell 64% confirmed?
The figure comes from Trump’s own remarks, and no official breakdown was published with it. Mexico’s government has pointed instead to a fall in murders at home.
Sources: White House, Rose Garden lunch video, 15 October 2026; Expansión, 15 October 2026; La Razón de México, 15 October 2026; Diario de Tabasco (EFE), 15 October 2026; Semanario Zeta, 15 October 2026; Infobae México, 13 October 2026; La Crónica de Hoy, 13 October 2026; Contralínea, 13 October 2026; Excélsior, 10 September 2026; Expansión, March remarks, 13 March 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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