A crypto rally does not lift demand for every stablecoin in the same way. Coin Metrics finds that stablecoin supply growth tends to accelerate for USDT in the week following a rally, while USDC’s expansion slows—a split the study links to their different roles in trading, leverage and on-chain yields.
Key takeaways
- USDT issuance strengthens after rallies; USDC growth typically eases.
- Perpetual futures funding rates provide the strongest signal for the following week’s supply changes.
- USDC’s growth also responds to the gap between on-chain yields and Treasury bill rates.
Stablecoin supply growth splits after rallies
USDT tends to expand as traders build leveraged exposure, while USDC minting increases during market declines. Coin Metrics interprets the latter pattern as consistent with deleveraging and holding funds for future purchases or on-chain yield opportunities.
The previous week’s crypto market return explains 5.3% of the variation in USDT’s weekly supply growth and 4.6% for USDC. Both relationships are statistically significant, but their directions differ.
Coin Metrics describes the contrast this way: “USDT expands as risk-on leverage builds, while USDC mints when markets fall.” For USDC, the researchers describe a move into the token “as dry powder and an asset for on-chain yields.”
The distinction complicates reading the two supplies as a single pool of money waiting to enter crypto markets. In the study’s interpretation, a combined figure blends USDT’s leverage-driven expansion with USDC’s use during deleveraging and yield seeking.
Futures collateral and funding explain different demand
USDT serves as collateral in about 42% of futures markets, compared with roughly 10% for USDC. USDT is the principal margin asset across most centralized exchange markets, while USDC’s use is concentrated on Hyperliquid, dYdX and Deribit.
Perpetual futures funding rates—the recurring payments exchanged between long and short positions—are the study’s clearest leading indicator of the following week’s supply growth. Higher funding rates precede faster expansion for both tokens.
After accounting for other factors, funding explains approximately 10% of USDC’s weekly growth variance and 4% of USDT’s. For the two tokens together, a funding-only model explains 13.3% of the variation.
USDC also responds to the carry spread, measured as the supply yield on Aave v3 less the three-month US Treasury bill rate. Using data from 2023 onward, Coin Metrics finds that this yield gap adds explanatory power for USDC, but contributes little beyond funding for USDT or their combined supply.
In the funding-and-carry model, the two factors account for 15.9% of USDC’s weekly supply growth variance.
What the weekly models capture
Coin Metrics’ six-variable analysis explains 16% of USDT’s weekly growth variance and 13% of USDC’s. The researchers use weekly observations covering the past four years, with each explanatory variable shifted back by one week.
Across the study, no model accounts for more than 25% of the variation in supply growth.
Coin Metrics identifies additional drivers outside its models: issuer treasury activity, incentives around minting and redemption, integrations for moving funds into and out of crypto, and regulation across jurisdictions.
Growth slows in 2026 after the 2025 expansion
Stablecoin supply growth has stalled in 2026 after the combined USDT and USDC total exceeded $255 billion in 2025. Neither token has recorded monthly supply growth above 10% during 2026.
USDC’s history also includes a substantial contraction around the Silicon Valley Bank-related depeg in March 2023. Its supply stood at $56.6 billion in 2022 and subsequently fell to a low of $27.9 billion in February 2024.
Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.