As the Los Angeles Rams enter Week 5, they sit at 2-2 and 2.5 games back in the NFC West after the San Francisco 49ers beat the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. It’s only Week 5, but it feels like unless the Rams can get a win on Monday night against the Bills, the division may already be slipping away from them.
Through four weeks, the Rams have yet to find any consistency. They already have a Week 1 loss to the now 5-0 49ers. Additionally, the 49ers have another leg up on the Rams after closing out their Week 4 game and getting a win against the Denver Broncos.
It’s true that the Rams will get healthier as Myles Garrett and Terrance Ferguson eventually return to the lineup.The Rams also play the 49ers again later in the season and will have an opportunity to avenge their loss.
The Rams Are Already Losing Ground in the NFC West
At the same time, heading into the season, this isn’t necessarily where the Rams saw themselves. The Rams are no longer favored to win the NFC West. They are clearly behind the 49ers in that aspect. According to ESPN, the Rams have just a seven percent chance to win the division. The Athletic gives them a 20 percent chance, but that’s still well below the 49ers at 68 percent.
If the Rams beat the Bills on Monday night, that jumps to 24 percent, but those still aren't great odds. A loss would drop them to a 14 percent chance of winning the NFC West.
This isn’t to have a negative outlook on the Rams’ season, but it’s simply where they are. It’s Week 5, and if the Rams want to win the division, it’s going to be an uphill battle at this point. In the NFL, things can change rapidly.
Look no further than the NFC West last year. The Rams led most of the way and won an important Week 11 game against the Seahawks. Still, after Week 5, both teams were 3-2 and the Seahawks never fell out of reach. That’s the danger that the Rams are in right now with the 49ers at 5-0.
That’s not to say that the Rams can’t win the Super Bowl without winning the division, but it would make their path a lot more difficult. Yes, the Rams added Garrett and Trent McDuffie to help in December and January. However, it was also to help make their path to the Super Bowl easier.
Since the NFL expanded to seven playoff teams in each conference, only three non-division winners have made the conference championship game and none of them have gone to the Super Bowl.
It happened fewer than a handful of times under the six-team format and hasn't happened since the most recent playoff expansion. No matter the format, winning three road playoff games is hard. Had last year’s NFC Championship game been played at SoFi Stadium, the result may have been different.
Again, the Rams made the moves that they did this offseason to help make the path easier. Stafford hasn’t lost a home playoff game. Stafford won his first road playoff games of his career last year and is 2-6. That’s not necessarily a bad record. Peyton Manning was 2-5 in the playoffs on the road. In all three Super Bowls he made, his teams had home-field advantage.
Winning one road playoff game is difficult. Doing that three times in a row is extremely difficult and that was evident last year when that was the path that the Rams would have had to take. Yes, they got very close to doing it. At the same time, it’s not a path that’s necessarily viable. When the Rams won the Super Bowl in 2021, they had to win just one road playoff game.
Again, this isn’t to say that the Rams don’t have a chance or their season is already over. Still, it shows the importance of needing to win on Monday night against the Bills to keep pace with the 49ers. They can’t continue to fall behind.
The Opening Drive: Biggest Storylines Ahead of Rams-Bills
1. Potential Super Bowl Preview
Coming into the season, the Rams and Bills were a popular Super Bowl matchup and that might still be the case for some after four weeks. Neither team has truly found its rhythm yet, but it feels like only a matter of time. When the Rams and Bills have played over the last few years, it has typically come with a dramatic finish. In 2024, the Rams narrowly escaped 44-42 after leading 38-21 entering the fourth quarter. Not many would be disappointed if these two teams played again in February.
2. Josh Allen vs. Matthew Stafford
This will be a matchup between the last two MVPs. With many recent MVPs coming from one conference, this isn’t as rare as some might think. In fact, it happened just last year in Week 1 as Josh Allen and the Bills beat Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens 41-40. This isn’t as common between AFC and NFC MVPs.
It should have happened in 2023, but Aaron Rodgers left the Green Bay Packers for the New York Jets and then got hurt in Week 1 before he would have played Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. This should have happened again in 2021, but Lamar Jackson was hurt when the Ravens played the Packers.The last time it happened was in 2015 when Peyton Manning and the Broncos played Rodgers and the Packers. Manning and the Broncos won that game, 29-10.
3. 13 Personnel
There has been a lot of talk in 2026 about NFL offenses transitioning to more 13 personnel and heavier tight end sets. No two teams have leaned into this more than the Rams and Bills. The Rams lead the NFL with a 13 personnel usage rate of 31 percent. Behind them are the Bills at 26 percent. Whichever team has more success with multiple tight ends will likely win Monday night’s game.
Under the Helmet: Kyren Williams
This isn’t to say that Kyren Williams has been underrated, but the step he’s taken toward becoming a more complete running back this season hasn’t been discussed enough. Williams became the first Rams running back last week since Todd Gurley to have at least 10 rushing attempts and 10 receptions in the same game. Williams has been one of the best all-around running backs this season and without Stafford playing well and Puka Nacua missing some time, he’s been the engine of the offense.
Pre-Snap Reads: What I’m Watching in Tonight’s Game
Through most of the first four weeks, the Rams’ passing game has lacked some consistency. It hasn’t necessarily struggled as the Rams rank second in passing yards per game. However, the EPA and success rate tell a different story.
With Matthew Stafford’s turnovers, the Rams rank 18th in EPA per pass. Their 48.5 percent passing success rate ranks ninth and is behind the New York Jets. They should have a chance on Monday night to find something. The Bills have some injuries at cornerback and rank 26th in EPA per pass allowed and 28th in pass defense success rate.
Around the NFC West
The NFC West had a busy weekend. On Saturday morning, it was reported that the Arizona Cardinals were trading away wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. It wasn’t confirmed which team until Sunday afternoon when it was announced that the team he was being traded to was the Houston Texans. That’s notable as the Rams play the Cardinals next week.
Additionally, the 49ers and Seahawks played one of the better games of the season.The Seahawks turned the ball over three times in the first half, leading to 21 first-half points for the 49ers. While they clawed back, they came up just short on a controversial call on 4th-and-10. The Seahawks went to the Super Bowl last season, despite having a -3 turnover differential. They were 6-3 in games in which they turned the ball over two or more times. Both games that the Seahawks have lost this season, they’ve struggled with turnovers.
A Seahawks win would have been good for the Rams as the 49ers now sit at 5-0 and are in complete control of the NFC West. They are 3-0 in division games and have looked like the best team in the NFL. If the Rams aren’t careful, the 49ers could start to pull away.
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