As the United States reshapes its Indo-Pacific military strategy around countering China, the changing role of U.S. Forces Korea has emerged as a central question for South Korea's security. Moon Chung-in, distinguished professor emeritus at Yonsei University, recently went as far as to call the alliance with Washington "a curse rather than a blessing," a remark that reflects concerns over that shift. For South Korea, which relies on the alliance to counter North Korean threats, the concern is that it may face a new security dilemma between maintaining deterrence against Pyongyang and avoiding entanglement in a U.S.-China conflict.
According to diplomatic sources on the 23rd, Moon said at a roundtable hosted by Seoul National University's Institute for Future Strategy on the 21st: "Personally, I see the alliance as a curse rather than a blessing for us. As long as we remain in an alliance, we cannot escape the security dilemma." Moon said the United States views South Korea as a front-line base for containing China, and warned of the risk of being drawn into the hegemonic competition between the two powers.
U.S. Stresses Missions Beyond the Peninsula
Behind that warning is the change in the mission of U.S. Forces Korea that Washington is pursuing. To respond to strategic competition with China, the United States is realigning its military posture in the Indo-Pacific and emphasizing "strategic flexibility," a direction that would not confine the role of U.S. troops in Korea to defending the peninsula.
Lt. Gen. Joseph Hilbert, commander of the Eighth Army, said in an interview with the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post published on the 21st that focusing myopically only on threats on the Korean Peninsula would be irresponsible. Being stationed in South Korea does not mean the force cannot carry out other missions, he said, stressing the need to be prepared so that the Eighth Army can be deployed where it is needed. The remarks reaffirmed the possibility of operations beyond the defense of the peninsula.
The moves are in line with the defense strategy of the Donald Trump administration. In the National Defense Strategy released in January, the United States stated that South Korea could assume primary responsibility for deterring North Korea with critical but limited U.S. support. At the same time, it set out a plan to build a strong denial-oriented defense posture along the first island chain running from Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines in order to counter China.
Gen. Xavier Brunson, commander of U.S. Forces Korea, said at the annual meeting of the Association of the U.S. Army in Washington on the 12th that sustainable capability matters especially in a fight in the Pacific. Discussing ways to secure self-sufficiency for U.S. forces inside the first island chain from South Korea, he said a regional sustainment hub concept means bringing such means of production into the theater. The idea is seen as using South Korea's defense industrial base to support U.S. operations in the Indo-Pacific over the long term.
Deterring the North, but Risking a U.S.-China Clash
The problem is that Washington and Seoul do not necessarily expect the same role from U.S. Forces Korea. South Korea needs the deterrent against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats, while the United States must also factor in military competition with China. Concerns have been raised that if U.S. troops in Korea are committed to operations outside the peninsula to meet Washington's strategic needs, deterrence against North Korea could be affected.
Observers say the possibility cannot be ruled out that U.S. bases in South Korea would be used in operations if a military clash between the United States and China broke out in the Taiwan Strait. Even if Seoul does not want direct military involvement, it could be drawn into a conflict with Beijing in the course of supporting U.S. operations in the region.
Kim Tae-hyung, a professor of political science and international relations at Soongsil University, said the U.S.-China confrontation is unlikely to turn rough for the time being, but added: "Because South Korea is in an asymmetric alliance, there is a risk of being drawn into an unwanted conflict if the U.S.-China dispute grows." Kim said uncertainty has increased in both the South Korea-U.S. alliance and U.S.-China relations under the Trump administration, stressing that Seoul should design its security strategy with various scenarios in mind.
Others counter that joining the U.S. strategy to counter China also serves South Korea's security interests. Kim Jae-chun, a professor in the School of International Studies at Sogang University, said it is consistent with the national interest for South Korea to help the United States contain China, and described the alliance as "a security asset that is hard to replace." Citing the fundamental differences between the political systems of China and South Korea, as well as the historical experience of South Korea's sovereignty being infringed upon by the rise of regional hegemons, he warned that South Korea's security and political sovereignty could be constrained if a China-centered regional order takes shape.