The Middle East faces a historic choice: to remain trapped in rivalries that define security through the weakening of adversaries, or to build a regional order based on sovereignty, cooperation and diplomacy.
By Dr. Arben Ramkaj
Tirana Times, October 09, 2026 – The greatest danger facing the Middle East today is not merely the outbreak of another war, but the possibility that existing conflicts could converge into an uncontrollable regional confrontation. The October 10 attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, which left 12 people dead and 309 injured, according to Saudi authorities, has brought this danger sharply into focus. For Saudi Arabia, the custodian of Islam’s two holiest sites in Mecca and Medina, the challenge is to defend its sovereignty and protect its citizens without allowing military escalation to determine the region’s future.
The magnitude of this challenge becomes clearer against the backdrop of the upheavals that have transformed the Middle East. The Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Israeli military offensive in Gaza have resulted in tens of thousands of civilian casualties and a humanitarian catastrophe that has shocked international public opinion. Millions of people have taken to the streets around the world, demanding an end to the war and the Israeli offensive. The destruction of civilian infrastructure and the deteriorating situation in the West Bank have turned the conflict into a question of international conscience and responsibility.
In this atmosphere, Pope Francis’s warning about a “Third World War fought piecemeal” resonates with particular urgency. The war in Ukraine and the crises unfolding across the Middle East have created a reality in which conflicts increasingly influence and reinforce one another. Unlike the Cuban Missile Crisis, when the danger was concentrated in a single confrontation, today’s risks are dispersed across multiple fronts that could ultimately converge.
At the heart of this uncertainty lies the rivalry between Iran and Israel, accompanied by strategic ambitions, not always openly articulated, to expand influence and establish political and military dominance in the Middle East. Tehran has projected influence through Hezbollah in Lebanon, armed groups in Iraq and the Houthi movement in Yemen, while Israel relies on its military superiority and operations beyond its borders. Syria has demonstrated the human and political cost of these rivalries, where Iranian support for Bashar al-Assad’s regime contributed to prolonging the civil war. The confrontation between these two powers risks holding the region hostage to competing ambitions for hegemony.
It is precisely within this complex strategic environment that Saudi Arabia’s positioning has acquired particular significance.
U.S. President Donald Trump, a close partner of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has repeatedly encouraged the Kingdom to normalize relations with Israel and join the Abraham Accords. Against the backdrop of the rivalry with Iran, such a step would strengthen regional security cooperation. Yet, despite expectations among international policymakers and analysts, the Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister has prioritized a principle closely linked to the Kingdom’s historical and moral responsibilities: the establishment of an independent Palestinian state as a prerequisite for normalization with Israel.
This position has been translated into concrete diplomatic action. Together with France, Saudi Arabia spearheaded an international initiative to advance the two-state solution, helping generate renewed momentum toward recognition of Palestinian statehood. In September 2025, France, the United Kingdom and several other European countries took this historic step. Although their decisions also reflected domestic political considerations, Saudi diplomacy contributed to creating a new international dynamic.
But could this principled position itself be part of the strategic price Saudi Arabia is paying today? The question demands caution. Future developments will determine whether Riyadh’s insistence on Palestinian statehood becomes a foundation for lasting regional stability or exposes the Kingdom to new pressures.
Within this framework, Riyadh seeks to move the Palestinian question away from military confrontation and toward international legitimacy. Unlike Iran’s approach, in which support for Palestine has been intertwined with the activities of armed groups, Saudi Arabia advocates a diplomatic settlement based on the two-state solution.
Such an approach requires strengthening the Palestinian Authority, led by President Mahmoud Abbas, and renewing its democratic legitimacy. The parliamentary and presidential elections announced for 2027 could contribute to institutional consolidation and the political reunification of Gaza and the West Bank.
At the same time, Riyadh is broadening its strategic partnerships. Discussions about closer cooperation with Turkey and Pakistan are particularly significant given their respective strategic positions: Turkey is a NATO member, while Pakistan is a nuclear power with extensive diplomatic relationships. Such cooperation could strengthen consultation mechanisms and crisis prevention, provided that it does not create new regional dividing lines.
While these partnerships are intended to reinforce future security, Yemen remains a critical test of the existing regional balance.
The Saudi-led coalition’s military intervention in March 2015 followed a request from Yemen’s internationally recognized president, Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, after the advance of Houthi forces. United Nations Security Council Resolution 2216, adopted on April 14, 2015, demanded that the Houthis withdraw from territories they had seized and surrender weapons taken from state institutions. The resolution remains an important international reference concerning Yemen’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Nevertheless, the Yemeni experience demonstrates that security cannot be achieved through military means alone. Riyadh has supported United Nations mediation and political dialogue, while Houthi attacks against international shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Saudi civilian infrastructure continue to threaten regional stability. Any response must respect international law and the protection of civilians.
The humanitarian dimension is equally important. Saudi Arabia has reported providing more than $20 billion in overall support to Yemen, encompassing humanitarian assistance, economic support and development projects. Yet without institutional reconstruction and domestic reconciliation, the country’s recovery will remain fragile.
The consequences of the crisis extend far beyond the Arabian Peninsula. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal form vital commercial corridors connecting Asia and Europe. Attacks on merchant vessels have transformed maritime security into a matter of multilateral responsibility, making diplomacy, international cooperation and respect for international law indispensable.
In this environment, where stability increasingly depends on international cooperation, Albania also has an opportunity to assume responsibilities beyond its immediate neighborhood.
As a NATO member and a participant in the Board of Peace for Gaza, Albania should consider contributing to the logistical component of a Saudi-led multilateral initiative within formally established international mechanisms. Such an engagement would be a meaningful contribution by Albania, strengthening its strategic relations with Saudi Arabia and its Euro-Atlantic partners while giving Albanian foreign policy a more active role in international efforts to promote peace and regional stability.
Ultimately, the Middle East stands at a historic crossroads. It can remain trapped in rivalries that define security through the weakening of adversaries, or it can begin building a regional order founded on sovereignty, cooperation and diplomacy.
Saudi Arabia possesses the resources, influence and international relationships necessary to help shape this transformation. Yet its future strategic weight will depend not only on its ability to project power, but also on its capacity to translate that influence into international responsibility.
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About the Author
Dr. Arben Ramkaj is Director of the Middle East and Arab World Program at the Albanian Institute for International Studies (AIIS), Chairman of the Interreligious Cooperation Center and Vice President of the European Muslim League.
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