Prediction markets: Polymarket gives Millonarios FC a 83.5% chance against Once Caldas, and Kalshi gives Santos Laguna a 25% chance to win the Liga MX Clausura, as of October 20, 11:07 p.m. ET. Prices are bets, not polls.
São Paulo hosts a decisive night. Palmeiras carry a 2-1 lead into Wednesday’s Copa Libertadores semi-final second leg against Fluminense at Nubank Parque, and a draw would send them to the final.
Boca Juniors are through in Rio. Boca beat Vasco da Gama 3-1 at the Maracanã on Tuesday to win their Copa Sudamericana semi-final 3-2 on aggregate.
Two finals are set for late November. The Sudamericana final is on 21 November in Barranquilla, and the Libertadores final is on 28 November in Montevideo.
Prediction markets. Polymarket traders put Flamengo at 48.0%, Palmeiras at 42.0% and Estudiantes at 8.2% to win the Libertadores, as of 11:01 p.m. ET on Tuesday, 20 October.
Today’s headlines October 21, 2026
| Event | Status | Angle |
|---|---|---|
| Copa Libertadores SF Leg 2: Palmeiras vs Fluminense | Wednesday, 8:30pm ET | Palmeiras lead 2-1 from the first leg and host the second at Nubank Parque in São Paulo. |
| Copa Sudamericana SF Leg 2: Montevideo City Torque vs Atlético Mineiro | Wednesday, 6pm ET | Atlético Mineiro lead 3-0 from the first leg; the winner meets Boca Juniors in the final. |
| Copa Libertadores SF Leg 2: Flamengo vs Estudiantes | Thursday, 8:30pm ET | The first leg in La Plata ended 0-0, so the tie is open at the Maracanã. |
| Copa Sudamericana Final | November 21 | Boca Juniors have booked their place; the final is in Barranquilla. |
01
Palmeiras look to finish the job against Fluminense in São Paulo
Preview
Palmeiras host Fluminense in the second leg of their Copa Libertadores semi-final on Wednesday at 9:30pm Brasília time (8:30pm ET) at Nubank Parque. Palmeiras won the first leg 2-1 at the Maracanã on 14 October, with goals from Flaco López and Marlon Freitas, and Wesley Natã pulled one back for Fluminense.
A place in the final on 28 November in Montevideo is the prize. A draw would send Palmeiras through, while Fluminense need to win.
The other Libertadores semi-final, Flamengo against Estudiantes, is on Thursday at the Maracanã after a 0-0 first leg.
In short — Palmeiras hold a 2-1 aggregate lead as they host Fluminense in Wednesday’s Libertadores semi-final second leg.
02
Boca Juniors reach the Sudamericana final as Atlético Mineiro eye the other spot
Result and preview
Boca Juniors beat Vasco da Gama 3-1 at the Maracanã on Tuesday, winning the semi-final 3-2 on aggregate. Di Lollo and Merentiel put Boca two goals up by the 33rd minute, Puma pulled one back for Vasco, and Paredes scored late from the bench.
The other semi-final is decided on Wednesday at the Estadio Centenario in Montevideo at 7pm Montevideo time (6pm ET). Atlético Mineiro won the first leg 3-0 against Montevideo City Torque, so the Brazilian side only needs to avoid a heavy defeat.
The winner meets Boca Juniors in the final on 21 November at the Estadio Metropolitano in Barranquilla, Colombia.
In short — Boca Juniors are in the Sudamericana final; Atlético Mineiro lead Montevideo City Torque 3-0 before Wednesday’s second leg.
03
What Prediction Markets Say
Markets
Traders on Polymarket, a prediction market, price Flamengo at 48.0 percent to win the Copa Libertadores, Palmeiras at 42.0 percent and Estudiantes at 8.2 percent at 11:01 p.m. ET on Tuesday, 20 October. About US$35,800 had been traded on that market, and these are bets by traders, not forecasts or results.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Prediction Markets Say
Implied chances from traders’ prices, as of October 20, 11:07 p.m. ET.
Millonarios FC vs. Once Caldas
Millonarios FC 83.5% · Draw (Millonarios FC vs. Once Caldas) 14.5% · Once Caldas 1.7%
Polymarket · US$30,560 traded
Liga MX Clausura Champion
Santos Laguna 25% · America 22% · Guadalajara 18%
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC) · 550,346 contracts traded
Brazil Série A: Winner
Flamengo 61.5% · Palmeiras 37.5% · Athletico Paranaense 0.3%
Polymarket · US$51,027 traded
Copa Libertadores: Winner
Flamengo 48% · Palmeiras 42% · Estudiantes LP 8%
Polymarket · US$35,821 traded
Colombia Primera A: Teams relegated (2026)
Jaguares 80% · Cúcuta Deportivo 11.2% · Independiente Medellín 3.4%
Polymarket · US$21,690 traded
Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
UTC Cajamarca 91% · FC Cajamarca 59% · Deportivo Moquegua 45%
Polymarket · US$20,728 traded
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
04
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQ
When is the Copa Libertadores final in 2026?
The final is scheduled for November 28, 2026, at the Estadio Centenario in Montevideo, Uruguay.
The two semi-final winners will meet there.
What happened in the first leg of the Palmeiras vs Fluminense semi-final?
Palmeiras won the first leg 2-1 at the Maracanã on October 14, 2026.
They carry that lead into the second leg in São Paulo on October 21.
Where is the 2026 Copa Sudamericana final being played?
The final is scheduled for November 21, 2026, at the Estadio Metropolitano in Barranquilla, Colombia.
Boca Juniors have already qualified for it.
Who has reached the Copa Sudamericana final?
Boca Juniors beat Vasco da Gama 3-1 at the Maracanã on October 20, winning the semi-final 3-2 on aggregate.
The other finalist will be Atlético Mineiro or Montevideo City Torque.
In short — Answers cover the dates of the two continental finals, the Palmeiras first-leg lead, the Boca Juniors result and the Barranquilla venue.
Sources: ESPN Argentina — Fluminense team page, ESPN Argentina — Fluminense vs Palmeiras match page, ESPN Colombia — Copa Sudamericana 2026 fixture, horarios, resultados y TV, ESPN Colombia — Boca vs Vasco da Gama ida semis Copa Sudamericana, ESPN Colombia — Vasco da Gama vs Boca semifinal vuelta Copa Sudamericana 2026, Lance: Palmeiras beat Fluminense in the first leg, Lance: Vasco x Boca Juniors, CONMEBOL: Sudamericana final in Barranquilla, CONMEBOL: Libertadores final in Montevideo
Updated: 2026-10-20T23:17:00-03:00 by Oliver Mason, Latin America sports correspondent.
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