Spot gold fell below $4,000 an ounce on Oct. 23 after a selloff that wiped an estimated $1 trillion off gold and silver in a single day.
Key Takeaways
- Gold dipped to about $3,986 on Oct. 23, after silver sank 5.8% and gold 2.8% the day before.
- Peter Brandt warned gold could erase its entire 2025 advance, a direct jab at gold bull Peter Schiff.
- Traders now watch the Fed’s Oct. 27-28 meeting, with CME FedWatch pricing about 90% odds of a December hike.
The Number That Is Crucial
Gold traded at $3,998.72 early Friday in Asia, down 0.63% on the day, and briefly hit an intraday low near $3,986. That left the precious metal roughly 22% under the record of $5,110.50 it set on Jan. 26.
The damage started Thursday as silver sank 5.8% and gold 2.8%, putting the latter’s lost market value at about $810 billion and the former’s at more than $190 billion. Platinum fell 4%, palladium 3.7% and copper 2.8%. By early Friday, analysts estimated the two-day wipeout had amounted to over $1.3 trillion, with silver at its lowest level in 11 months.
The Trend That Started on Thursday
Two primary forces hit at once:
- Oil spiked on Iran war fears, with Brent up about 3.8% to $112.92, and that revived inflation worries.
- Futures traders responded by betting on higher rates and CME FedWatch data showed close to 90% odds of a Federal Reserve hike in December, a heavy weight on an asset that pays no yield.
At the same time, AI stocks cracked, with the Nasdaq posting its worst day since June and the S&P 500 its worst since July. Normally, a stock rout sends money into gold, but this time investors bought Treasuries instead.
The 10-year yield fell about 17 basis points to 4.96%, and inflation-adjusted yields eased, yet gold still fell. Analysts flagged forced selling as a plausible cause, though they noted the extent of liquidations “remains unverified.”
Brandt vs. Schiff
Veteran trader Peter Brandt could not resist providing his thoughts on the aforementioned developments. He posted a gold futures chart, stating that he was “not predicting it,” but if the slide continues, the “entire 2025 advance gets erased.” He then tagged Schiff directly, adding:
That would not be according to your [Schiff’s] script.
When a follower asked about the timeline, Brandt replied “Maybe 3 to 5 years” while in another reply he said there is “a very good chance” the commodity bull is “on its way to the butcher’s shop.”
Less than a week ago, Schiff told followers that “Gold at $4,145 is a gift.” Anyone who took that advice is now down about 3.5%.
Where Bitcoin Fits Into All of This
Bitcoin offered no shelter either as its price slipped below $81,000 on Thursday despite more than $1 billion in exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows. As things stand, bitcoin is down 4.1% on the day against gold’s 2.3% (at that point).
Over the full year, though, the score is closer than the gold camp would like. Gold ended 2025 near $4,354 and bitcoin near $87,498. At $4,000, gold is down about 8% for 2026. At $81,000, the bitcoin price is down about 7.4%. Schiff’s long-running “sell bitcoin, buy gold” trade is roughly flat on the year after Thursday.
Three Levels to Watch out for
Technical analysts are watching three gold levels as the Fed’s Oct. 27-28 meeting approaches:
- $4,198.93, the resistance gold must reclaim to call the selloff over.
- $3,924 to $3,942, the next support zone below the $4,000 line.
- $3,754, the downside target if that support gives way.
Next week’s Fed decision and U.S. inflation data will likely decide which one gets tested first.