The Detroit Lions have a chance to get right back in the middle of the NFC North title race.
In Week 7, the Lions host the Green Bay Packers to begin a stretch of back-to-back divisional games against the top two squads in the standings. This could be a season-defining stretch, as falling could be tough to recover from given how strong the division is.
Here are 10 thoughts on the Lions’ Week 7 matchup with the Packers.
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Last season, the Green Bay Packers made a point of emphasis to slow down Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs. He was held to 50 yards on 19 total touches in the first meeting last year, then 86 yards on 20 touches in their Thanksgiving rematch. With an even bigger workload this year, Gibbs will need to be more productive if the Lions are going to notch a win in Sunday’s meeting.
Green Bay’s defense is under new leadership with first-year coordinator Jonathon Gannon, so the plan could look different from their perspective. However, it’s no secret how impactful Gibbs is to Detroit’s offense, and so there will be eyes on him all afternoon.
Pivotal stretch
Sunday’s game marks the start of a huge two-game divisional stretch for the Lions. After not playing a divisional opponent through their first five games, they will play the top two teams in the division back-to-back with the Packers and then Vikings coming to town.
With the Packers at 4-2 and the Vikings still unbeaten, taking at least one of the two games is pivotal for the Lions to keep pace in the NFC North. If the Lions are unable to do so, then it would appear the most likely path to the postseason would be through the Wild Card.
On the same token, it’s also worth noting that the Lions will play all three divisional opponents in a four-game stretch to end the year. All three of those games will be on the road, though, and taking advantage of their opportunities at home will be of utmost importance.
Big returns
Barring any unfortunate developments between now and Sunday, the Lions are going to get two big members of their team back in center Cade Mays and safety Brian Branch. It will be both player’s first appearance of the season, and Mays’ first regular season game as a Lion after signing with the team in free agency.
On Wednesday, head coach Dan Campbell said the plan will be for Mays to start at center and not rotate in Juice Scruggs. For Scruggs, who has been one of the top-performing centers up to this point in the league, that could mean a move to left guard though Christian Mahogany has also been playing well.
Branch, meanwhile, is recovering from a torn Achilles and could have a big impact on the defense in his return. Time will tell what his workload will be, and it’s unfair to immediately expect him to be the level of player he was pre-injury, but his presence alone could go a long way toward stabilizing some of the secondary issues Detroit has had this season.
New-look Packers
The Packers will get a big return of their own on Sunday, as running back Josh Jacobs is expected to be active for the first time this season. Jacobs had been on the Commissioner’s Exempt List following an offseason incident, but has been cleared to play and is expected to against Detroit.
Green Bay currently ranks last in the league in rushing yards per game, and Jacobs could provide them a boost in that area. Additionally, the Packers have the third-lowest amount of rushing attempts up to this point, so Jacobs’ presence could change their offensive approach as a whole.
With Sunday being his first appearance of the season, it will be intriguing to see just how much of a workload he’s given. Regardless, the Lions’ run defense will be tested by an offense that, on paper, hasn’t done much in the rushing department.
Can Lions slow Packers’ passing attack?
Packers wide receiver Christian Watson has emerged as a legitimate downfield threat, and has caused the Lions some problems in the past. In seven career games against Detroit, Watson has notched four games with at least 80 receiving yards including 194 yards on 17 receptions in two games last year.
Through six games, Watson ranks fifth in receiving yards with 538 and second in receiving touchdowns with six. He is averaging 18.6 yards per reception, and as a result can be expected to test a struggling Lions secondary down the field.
Not to be outdone, Packers’ second-year wideout Matthew Golden is also enjoying a fine start to the season. He’s right behind Watson in receiving yards with 501, and has three touchdowns to his name.
If the Lions are to jump past the Packers in the division, which they would do with a win, the effort starts and ends with good cornerback play and shutting down Jordan Love’s top two passing options. If they can’t, it will lead to the game becoming a shootout and put pressure on Detroit’s offense.
League’s best pass-rush
Though the Lions have struggled and rank at the bottom of the league against the pass, their pass-rush has been a huge point of success up to this point in the season. They currently lead the league in sacks, with D.J. Wonnum pacing the team with five.
Aidan Hutchinson has managed four sacks despite his gravity attracting plenty of attention from opposing offensive lines. Additionally, Alim McNeill has provided pop from the interior offensive line with 3.5. With all the threats Green Bay has on the outside, having this pass-rush presence could go a long way against a Packers offensive line that has struggled at points this season.
Returning the favor
Last year, the Lions were swept by the Packers for the first time under Campbell. Even in the first year of his tenure, when the team finished 3-13-1, they were able to manage a victory against their rival at home. Now, Campbell’s team has a renewed fire to return the favor after last year’s struggles.
The Lions are also looking to snap a sort of ominous skid that has developed. After going a stretch over two seasons without losing back-to-back games, the Lions haven’t won back-to-back games since last September, when they won four consecutive games after losing to the Packers in the season opener.
Sunday’s game against Green Bay is their latest opportunity to snap that drought, and could be huge for them generating momentum throughout the rest of their season.
Best-case scenario
The Lions have the ability to make the Packers one-dimensional offensively with their struggles running the ball. While they give up some big plays through the air, the pass-rush is the great neutralizer as Aidan Hutchinson and D.J. Wonnum both get home for sacks.
Offensively, the Lions can help themselves out by controlling time of possession and finishing possessions with touchdowns as opposed to field goals. Jared Goff goes another game without a turnover, and the Lions pour it on late as the defense gets multiple key stops.
Worst-case scenario
The Lions come out of the bye flat, and Green Bay takes advantage with an early scoring strike from Love to Watson. The defense gets in position to make stops, but can’t get off the field on third-down as Tucker Kraft is a force in the middle of the field.
Detroit should be able to score on Green Bay’s defense, but the Packers will sell out to stop Gibbs. If he can’t get going, the Lions will become one-dimensional and predictable, which will force them into having to put together a mistake-free late rally in a close loss.
Bold prediction
Against an offensive line that has sputtered, the Lions will keep the Packers under 250 yards passing. Pass-rush will be the key, as the personnel the Lions have in the defensive backfield has struggled. However, Branch’s return will provide a boost, and the pass-rush limits the damage Love can do by getting to him quickly.
The best way for the Lions to avoid getting picked apart is to get after the quarterback, and Hutchinson and Wonnum have the ability to do that. Ultimately, the impact of the pass-rush will be the difference in the game.
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