Umiam, Oct 13: Ginger prices in Meghalaya have witnessed sharp fluctuations over the past decade, with no statistically significant long-term upward or downward trend, according to a study by the ICAR Research Complex for North Eastern Hill Region (ICAR-RC NEH), Umiam.
The study, titled “Ginger Prices in Meghalaya: Trends, Forecasts and What It Means for Farmers,” analysed market price data from January 2014 to February 2024. It found that the average market price of ginger during the period stood at ₹4,400.47 per quintal.
The analysis identified high price volatility, with prices showing sharp spikes followed by steep declines. Researchers also found a strong seasonal pattern, with prices following a recurring 12-month cycle.
Statistical analysis found no significant long-term price trend, with a p-value of 0.5923. This indicates that the study did not find sufficient statistical evidence of a sustained upward or downward movement in ginger prices during the period.
Among the forecasting models assessed, the Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1,1) model delivered the best performance in predicting ginger price movements. The researchers compared several time-series models, including ARMA, ARIMA, ARIMAX, ARCH and GARCH.
The GARCH (1,1) model recorded a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1,212.28 and a Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) of 0.2817. These measures were used to assess the accuracy of the forecasts, with lower error values generally indicating better predictive performance.
The findings could help farmers and other stakeholders better understand seasonal price movements and market risks. Improved price forecasting can support decisions on cultivation schedules, storage and post-harvest marketing, potentially helping growers plan when to sell their produce.
The study also offers insights for policymakers seeking to develop measures to protect farmers from sharp market fluctuations. Better understanding of price cycles could inform interventions aimed at improving market access and reducing the risks associated with unpredictable returns.
Placing Meghalaya’s ginger economy in a wider context, the study noted that India accounts for approximately 35% of global ginger production. The country has around 0.17 million hectares under ginger cultivation, producing 1.84 million tonnes at an average productivity of 10.72 tonnes per hectare.
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The post Ginger averaged ₹4,400 per quintal in Meghalaya over a decade, ICAR-NEH study flags high price volatility appeared first on Hub News.