If footballing dreams are lived out in September, they are first shaped in October and November.
If you nail an offseason it can set you up for years to come. If you stumble it can hurt for even longer.
The 2026 offseason class was one of rare quality. Instead of list-cloggers and fringe players that sometimes monopolise trade chatter, this year's crop is full of proven stars.
Lachie Neale, Scott Pendlebury, Jesse Hogan, Toby Greene, Zak Butters, Rowan Marshall and Ben King all found new clubs, amongst a host of others. It'd be hard to find a trade period with a better combined resume than the one we've just seen.
The 2026 trade period has seen 23 trades and seven free agency moves take place, with 30 players finding new clubs for season 2027. The dealing isn't done yet, with more picks set to change hands before and during the draft.
While much of football — and football commentary — is about instant gratification, the trade period is often a slower burn. Most AFL grand finals are blow outs well before the final siren, and most trade periods have deals that hang in the balance until the final minutes.
This year the opposite was the case. Little suspense was left by the time the last day rolled around, while the ending to that grand final was one that will be remembered for years to come.
While winners or losers of the offseason often take years to fully work out, the direction each team is taking is usually much clearer after the final trade is called.
Dogs taking a big bite
Each trade period it seems like at least one side pushes firmly towards the present over the future. Last year the Saints were the most aggressive side, bringing in a host of players to hopefully kickstart their resurgence up the ladder.
This year it was the Bulldogs that were the busiest club in the league.
All up the Dogs brought in four new players, the most of any club this offseason. The centrepiece of the four was the move for free agent Zak Butters, but the acquisition of Jordon Butts should be equally important for an often under-siege defensive unit.
There are some slight queries about how Butters will fit alongside Marcus Bontempelli and Ed Richards, but with the Dogs captain turning 32 next year this potentially sets the midfield group up for contention over the next half decade. The Bulldogs' best over the past three seasons has rivalled practically any other side. The time is now for them to take the next step.
But the Dogs may not be the biggest winners of the trade period for next season in isolation. Geelong's acquisition of proven talent in Toby Greene, Jordan Ridley and Rowan Marshall looks like providing the most upside next year, while Hawthorn will also be quietly confident in Zach Merrett and Ben King.
At the other end of the "win now" scale, the preliminary finalist Swans will be forced to retool without Nick Blakey and Joel Amartey, and GWS have made the call to get younger with the loss of Toby Greene, Jesse Hogan, Kieren Briggs and Lachie Whitfield.
Blakey's big deal
Whispers about a Nick Blakey move became increasingly loud as the offseason progressed. The chatter about his discontent in Sydney didn't abate, and quickly the defender became the focal point of an otherwise quiet second week of the period.
There's a couple of good reasons for that too. It's uncommon that a 26 year old who is arguably the best player in a valuable role becomes available on the trade market.
In all, no club this century has traded more pick value for a single player than North has just traded for Blakey. The trade takes them out of multiple drafts. If North Melbourne were to win the 2028 premiership, the value of the picks traded would still outweigh what Adelaide traded for Wayne Carey way back in 2002.
Beyond the stated cost above, it also has deprived them of another top draft pick — the likely early 20s they would have received in compensation for Essendon's upcoming bid on Dougie Cochrane.
North Melbourne had hoped to pair Blakey with Adelaide's Nick Murray to bolster their defence, but that fell through at the deadline. It could be a bigger loss than it appears. North's defensive stocks are some of the weakest in the league, and their ability to transition the strongest part of their back half game.
Future failing
As predicted here before the trade period commenced most clubs were very cautious of the value of next year's draft.
One of the clearest examples was offered by Melbourne early in the trade period in their public negotiations for newly minted Demon Zane Duursma.
"We offered (pick) 47, we also offered a 2027 'future two', or 2028 'future two'," Melbourne list boss Tim Lamb told the media.
That pick 47 is notionally a third round selection, indicating that the drop in value increases to about a round for the next two drafts, which are compromised by the new Tasmania team being handed high picks.
This was even clearer in the trade that took place between Richmond and Port Adelaide, with the Tigers sending pick 22 this year alongside their round one, two and three picks next year for Port Adelaide's fifth pick.
This reflected the general trend of how picks traded hands. Only clubs who have clear father-son or academy talents seemed to be on the hunt for picks next year, with other clubs pushing for lower selections this year or selections in 2028 instead.
Port Adelaide were the keenest to get 2027 draft picks through the door. That's no shock, given they have up to four tied talents. In fact, every club bar possibly Sydney to invest in next year's draft have prospective father-son or academy talents likely to be selected in the upper reaches of the draft.
Most other clubs were somewhat keen to escape the oncoming chaos, or try to move picks into the (slightly) less compromised 2028 draft. The compromised drafts might also be playing into another trend that has emerged recently.
The past two trade periods have seen a re-evaluation of how clubs see the value of players against picks. Instead of the promise of youngsters, the increasingly uncertain availability of young talent has turned the attention of clubs to proven talent instead.