SINGAPORE - The US and Iran war is in an “inconclusive holding pattern”, and there’s no knowing which way the situation might go once the United States midterm elections are over, more so since Tehran’s demands have hardened.
That’s the word from Professor Vali Nasr, one of the world’s most renowned experts on Iran and a former adviser to the US State Department.
“President Trump was forced into a memorandum of understanding which actually looked very much to be in Iran’s favour. Since then, he has been trying to claw back what the US lost in those first 40 days,” says Nasr, referring to the failed June agreement for a 60-day ceasefire.
“This can be resolved by them going into another bout of war. Or they can do what they have been doing, grinding this (out) going forward. The Iranians are now asking for more than they asked for in June.”
The 14-point agreement, reached in Islamabad, undertook to release substantial frozen funds of Iran, allowed Iran to resume oil exports, and envisaged a massive reconstruction fund for Iran. Tehran reaffirmed its commitment to never acquire or develop nuclear weapons and to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to supervise the blending down of its uranium stockpile.
Asked whether he thought Tehran may be overplaying its hand, he responded: “They don’t think they are overplaying their hand. They think they have a winning hand, and they want to get something big out of this war.”
At the same time, he pointed out that Iran could not withstand the economic blockade indefinitely, nor continue resisting military attacks as it has. Neither is the war sustainable for the global economy with the Strait of Hormuz all but closed and Gulf economies held hostage to inconclusive hostilities.
Interviewed for The Straits Times Asian Insider podcast, Nasr noted that US President Donald Trump will either have to negotiate peace with Iran, or strike forcefully – and he has a three-month window between the midterm elections and before the US Congress convenes next January, to do things his chosen way, without legislative oversight.
“My own sense is that it is not easy for the US and Iran to arrive at an agreement,” says Vasr. “So, we are inching our way to a resumption of conflict.”
The Iran-born scholar, educated in the UK and the US, is a senior academic at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies. He is also a Visiting Professor at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
Nasr served the Obama administration as an adviser on Iran and has been a member of the State Department’s Foreign Affairs Policy Board.
Speculation is mounting that Trump, chafing from the ignominy of the battlefield reversals that Iran’s drones and missiles have wreaked on American bases in the West Asian region, will unleash the most heinous weapons on Iran.
There is also talk that the US and Israel have agreed to escalate, particularly after the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. On Oct 19, US War Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly held unannounced discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at an air force station in the Negev desert.
After Trump backed Netanyahu to win next week’s Israeli national polls, the premier responded warmly about “completing the mission we had started together”. US midterms are scheduled for Nov 3, and surveys suggest a Democratic victory is on the cards. Israelis go to the polls on Oct. 27 to elect a new parliament.
Depleted ammunition stocks notwithstanding, the US retains the firepower to inflict crippling damage on Iran. While the use of nuclear weapons has been ruled out by Trump, his options include dumping massive ordnance – “the mother of all bombs” – on Iranian infrastructure such as power and desalination plants.
Yet, doing so is tempered by the knowledge that it would embolden Russia and China to consider similar means themselves, in their respective domains. Besides, the inevitable Iranian retaliation would be devastating for the Middle East region.
“Iranians have been saying it very openly…that when the dust settles, we won’t be the only people going down. Others will, too, and that will have great consequences for the global economy,” Nasr says, adding that Trump is caught between governments advising caution and others egging him on to “finish the job”. He is also conscious of his legacy.
“Americans are not comfortable with the image of losing.”
As for US influence in the West Asian region, Nasr says Washington’s inability to protect Gulf states – most recently Saudi Arabia – has evaporated confidence in the American security umbrella.
“The US brought a war to their doorsteps in which the Gulf states became collateral damage. Then, the US proved incapable and unwilling to defend them… they could not (even) defend their own bases.”
A result of all this is that every country in the region will recalculate its security requirements. Indeed, it is time to think of the West Asian region as you would of Nato and Europe, with Trump “jumping over Europe to shake hands with (Russian President Vladimir) Putin, and wanting Ukraine to surrender.”
While outside powers such as China and Russia will not hasten to fill this gap until they define their interests in the region more clearly, the setback to US influence is considerable.
“Already, China has won,” said Nasr. “Chinese do not need to step in and do what the Americans did – the very fact that there is less American influence is to their benefit.”
It is the same with the rest of Asia, including East and South-East Asia.
“(Trump) has left many countries around the world sort of exposed because they had built their security under assumptions of the old American security order, which is in question because of this war...Every country will have to do its own calculation about its security needs and its interests.”
Besides, the way the US fought this war also revealed fundamental shortcomings in its military, including its inability to match China in producing weapons at scale. Moreover, it is unclear what sort of America will emerge after the inevitable period of retrospection on both military and strategic fronts.
What are the global implications if the US and Israel tried one more devastating strike on Iran? Nasr said a wider conflagration could not be ruled out, with North Korean soldiers fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine, Russia supporting Iran, Pakistani troops in Saudi Arabia helping to defend the kingdom, Ukraine itself assisting some Gulf monarchies with defence technology and counter-drone expertise, and Britain saying it will move fighter jets to help protect Saudi Arabia.
“Big wars don’t stay localised,” says Nasr. “If you have more than one of them happen at the same time, inevitably they get connected.”