In October, the Center Party topped Emor's party ratings with 20.6 percent support, followed by the Social Democratic Party with 20.4 percent.
Monthly changes in party ratings were substantial. Support for the Center Party rose by 3.7 percentage points compared with September, ending a three-month decline. Support for the Social Democratic Party (SDE) increased by 3.0 percentage points, reaching its highest level this year.
By contrast, support for Isamaa fell by 4.7 percentage points to 19.4 percent, the party's worst result in three years.
Emor research expert Aivar Voog said that, given the survey's margin of error, the ranking of the three parties could not be determined with certainty.
"The large changes over the past month may be temporary, so it is worth looking at the results of the coming months to assess whether the rise in support for the Center Party and SDE and the decline in support for Isamaa will persist," Voog said.
Isamaa lost support among younger age groups, while its position remained more stable among those aged 65 and older. SDE was already the most popular party among voters under 35 but also took the lead among those aged 35 to 49 in October.
The Reform Party and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, with virtually equal levels of support. In October, the Reform Party had 14.2 percent support, compared with 13.8 percent for EKRE.
Parempoolsed ranked sixth, with its support falling from 9.6 percent in September to 6.5 percent in October.
Support for all other parties remained below the electoral threshold. Eesti 200 had 1.5 percent support, trailing the Koos party, which had 1.7 percent. The Greens, which had considered merging with Eesti 200, had 0.8 percent support. The Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives party had 0.7 percent support.
The share of respondents with no party preference, or those who answered "don't know," fell from 30 percent in September to 27 percent in October. Combined support for the governing coalition remained at 16 percent, while total support for opposition parties rose from 71 percent to 74 percent.
When respondents with no party preference were also included, the Center Party had 15.5 percent support in October, followed by SDE with 15.4 percent, Isamaa with 13.3 percent, the Reform Party with 10.6 percent, EKRE with 8.7 percent and Parempoolsed with 5.0 percent.
SDE top choice for ethnic Estonian voters
Among ethnic Estonian respondents, SDE took the lead with 23.9 percent support, while Isamaa fell to second place with 23.2 percent. They were followed by the Reform Party with 16.6 percent, EKRE with 15.4 percent, the Center Party with 9.5 percent and Parempoolsed with 7.9 percent. Support for Eesti 200 among ethnic Estonian respondents stood at 1.9 percent.
Among respondents of other ethnic backgrounds, the Center Party led in October with 62.9 percent support. Support for all other parties in this group remained below 10 percent. The Koos party had 8 percent support, followed by EKRE with 7.9 percent and SDE with 7.2 percent.
Among voters in Tallinn, the Center Party led with 31.7 percent support, although SDE was not far behind with 26.3 percent. The Reform Party ranked third in the capital with 14.5 percent. Isamaa, which holds the mayor's office, had 10.5 percent support in Tallinn, compared with 7 percent for EKRE and 4.5 percent for Parempoolsed. The Center Party also led in Ida-Viru County with 46.3 percent support.
SDE remained the most popular choice among voters aged 18 to 24 and 25 to 34 and also took the lead among those aged 35 to 49 in October. Isamaa, which previously led in that age group, was now the most popular choice among voters aged 65 to 75 and those over 75. The Center Party led among voters aged 50 to 64.
Emor surveyed 1,487 voting-age citizens across Estonia online and by telephone from October 12 to 21. The maximum margin of error for a sample of this size is ±2.1 percentage points. More information about the party ratings is available on ERR's dedicated ratings page.
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