Diplomatic attention is focused on the UN Security Council in New York, where members are set to vote later this month on a new resolution concerning the Sahara dispute.
The text, drafted by the United States as penholder, is expected to advance a final settlement based on Morocco’s expanded autonomy plan under its sovereignty.
A solid consensus among most permanent members underpins the outlook.
The United States has backed Moroccan sovereignty over the territory since 2020. France and the United Kingdom, which supported the previous resolution 2797, remain aligned with Rabat through strategic, economic, and security partnerships.
Russia and China abstained on the last resolution without using their veto. Their stance is seen as an effort to maintain balance and avoid direct confrontation with Washington while supporting the UN-led political process.
Among African non-permanent members, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia, and Somalia lean strongly toward Morocco. Both the DRC and Liberia maintain consulates in Dakhla, and Somalia backed the previous resolution.
Bahrain, representing Arab perspectives, has consistently supported Morocco’s territorial integrity and opened a consulate in Laayoune in December 2020.
Pakistan abstained on resolution 2797, a position linked to its sensitivity over self-determination issues related to Kashmir, but observers expect a possible shift to a positive vote without hostility toward Morocco.
European non-permanent members Denmark, Greece, and Latvia are expected to vote in favor, consistent with prior positions and alignment with broader European Union policy.
In Latin America, Panama has expressed support for Morocco’s full sovereignty. Colombia, under its new president, withdrew recognition of the self-proclaimed Sahrawi republic in August and shifted to backing Morocco’s position.
Analysts assessing these alignments anticipate a large majority in favor of the resolution, with at most one to three abstentions for tactical reasons and no opposing votes. Such an outcome would reinforce the international consensus that autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty remains the sole realistic framework for resolving the regional dispute.