Democrat Mary Peltola says efforts to label her as a liberal are intended to distract Alaska voters from rising gas prices, affordability concerns, and foreign policy issues.
As Peltola seeks to unseat Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in a state President Donald Trump carried by 13 points in 2024, political analysts have told Newsweek the central challenge facing her campaign is convincing voters to separate her from a Democratic Party that remains unpopular with many Alaskans on the right.
The Alaska Senate race has become a test of a question analysts, pollsters, and politicians alike are watching nationwide: Can a Democrat win in a Trump state by campaigning as an independent-minded local candidate, rather than a national party figure?
Speaking to The Associated Press Wednesday, Peltola said she was "not liberal or radical," adding that she wants to work with Alaskans regardless of party.
"Peltola needs to differentiate herself from the national Democratic Party in order to attract enough normally Republican-leaning voters to gain a majority in a traditionally red state," David Hopkins, a politics professor at Boston College, told Newsweek Thursday.
"She has invested in creating a political persona as a native Alaskan who understands the unique needs of her state and can represent its interests in Washington even when these interests run counter to the agenda of the liberal wing of the national Democratic Party."
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Why Peltola is Running This Message
While Peltola has pulled ahead in recent polling, she likely needs independent and Republican support if she is to comfortably secure the senate seat November 3, and she appears to understand this in her messaging out on the campaign trail.
“Alaskans know who Mary Peltola is: an independent voice who has always stood up to anyone to put Alaska first–delivering the Willow Oil Project, protecting second amendment rights, and securing our borders," a spokesperson for Peltola's campaign told Newsweek Thursday.
"As a military mom, a fisherman, and a lifelong Alaskan, Mary knows the struggles Alaskans are facing because she’s lived them. While Dan Sullivan enriches himself and his Lower 48 special interest donors who are jacking up prices on Alaska families, Mary is fighting to lower costs, restore our fisheries, and put Alaska first."
Her Alaskan identity has been a core part of her messaging, focusing on her love of fishing, and the understanding of life being different in the state compared to the Lower 48. That latter message has been emphasized in her criticism of Sullivan and the idea that those in Washington, D.C., are failing to deliver for rural voters.
Overall, her message does not really focus on the wider Democratic Party's messaging from recent years. Her policies focus on affordability, "fixing the rigged system," and keeping promises made to veterans and service members.
"Openly distinguishing herself from both major parties while accusing Sullivan of being a reflexive partisan is a way for her to court independent voters who have mostly soured on the performance of the Trump administration but also dislike the Democratic leadership in Washington," Hopkins said.
By contrast, Sullivan and the White House have focused on emphasizing the senator's and administration's record, largely tied to the president.
In a release issued after Trump's visit to Alaska earlier this week to rally for Sullivan, the White House laid out the investments being made in Alaskan industries, as well as military spending and tax cuts. The message followed a similar trend to elsewhere across the U. S.—that voters face a choice between "America first" policies or Democratic policies of the Biden era.
Nate Adams, Sullivan's campaign’s spokesman, told Newsweek on Thursday that Peltola had spent the campaign "running away from her own liberal record, but she will never be able to hide from the fact that in Congress, she voted with Joe Biden and Democrats 95% of the time and sold Alaska out time and time again.
"If she’s successful, her very first vote in the Senate will be to empower Chuck Schumer and the same liberal D.C. Democrats who shut down our state every time they are in power," Adams said.
The Problem Facing Peltola
While Peltola may seek to distance herself from the Democratic Party of Washington, D.C., the test comes with voters largely seeing party labels first and candidates second.
"Mary Peltola has one of the most conservative voting records among House Democrats, and among Senate Republicans Dan Sullivan is just left of center," Chris Tausanovitch, a political-science professor at UCLA, told Newsweek on Thursday. "Both of them are trying their best to distinguish themselves from unpopular national party brands, but that's an uphill climb because voters are rarely able to distinguish their representative from their representative's party."
The party-first view of many voters could go either way.
While Peltola is trying to convince voters she isn't as far left as the Democrats have appeared in recent years, she could also benefit from Sullivan's close ties to Trump, whose popularity in Alaska has soured since his return to the White House in January 2025.
Sullivan has had some backing, of sorts, in recent days, with independent Al Gross, who previously ran against the Republican, criticizing Peltola in an opinion piece in the Anchorage Daily News. Gross said that while Peltola had a historic victory as the first Alaska Native to be elected to U.S. Congress, the senate race was not "a ceremonial vote."
He went on to criticize her record in Washington, D.C., saying she had been defeated in the 2024 election because she had not delivered for Alaskans.
"Even Senator Dan S. Sullivan's former opponents know he's the only candidate in this race who has actually delivered for Alaska and that Mary Peltola is a pawn for her far-left Lower 48 cronies who hate Alaska," National Republican Senatorial Committee Regional press secretary Nick Puglia said in a statement shared with Newsweek.
Speaking to Newsweek Thursday, Peltola's campaign spokesperson gave a different picture of her record, saying she had regularly stood up to her own party while in the House, including denouncing Biden administration energy and immigration policies, and fighting for the Second Amendment as an owner of 176 long guns.
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Alaska's Uniqueness Comes Into Play
Alaska is also relatively unique when it comes to elections and its voter makeup.
Elections in the Last Frontier are decided through ranked choice voting, meaning voters rank all candidates by preference, hence a voter's second choice can affect who wins. A candidate with a broader coalition has a higher chance of beating their opponent.
The state is home to a large independent voter bloc, meaning there are thousands of votes up for grabs for either candidate.
Many voters have therefore cared more about whether candidates are pro-resource development, pro-fishing industry, and pro-military than whether they are Republican or Democrat. The state's other Senator, Republican Lisa Murkowski, could be viewed as a clear example of this, retaining her seat for multiple terms despite frequently clashing with her party and the president.
This could be a good sign for Peltola, with an AARP poll in September showing she led independents by roughly 32 points on the initial ballot and a greater margin after ranked choice allocations.
Peltola vs. Sullivan: What Polls Show
Peltola has trended higher than Sullivan in several recent polls, fueling hopes that Democrats can reclaim a Senate seat they haven't held since early 2015, after Mark Begich lost his reelection bid in 2014 to Sullivan.
Peltola leads Sullivan by 6 points in the latest InsiderAdvantage poll, which surveyed 1,200 likely voters between October 9 and October 10. The poll showed Peltola at 48.2 percent in the first round, against 42.6 percent for Sullivan. In the final round of Alaska’s ranked choice voting, the potential result would be 50.1 percent to Peltola and 48 percent to Sullivan.
Peltola's lead over Sullivan was narrower in the Alaska Survey Research poll conducted between October 1 and 3. That poll surveyed 1,512 likely voters, with 47 percent choosing Peltola to Sullivan's 45 percent in the first round. Peltola's chances jumped to 51 percent and Sullivan's to 49 percent in the final round.
A New York Times/Siena University poll held between September 24 and October 1 gave Peltola her greatest lead over Sullivan at 50 percent to 43 percent. That poll surveyed 504 likely voters.
Sullivan has not had a lead over Peltola since the Trafalgar Group poll held between September 22 and 24. The conservative poll surveyed 1,079 likely voters and found that 47 percent opted for Sullivan over 46 percent who chose Peltola.
"The reality is that a lot will depend on the true extent of the national swing against Trump, which is likely to be similar across states," Tausanovitch said. "Polling is showing a strong swing toward the Democrats, enough to push Peltola over the top even in a state that went for Trump by 13 points, but Peltola's margin is well within the range of recent errors in the polls."
Contact Newsweek editor on this story: Edward Pearcey.