TUNISIA · GEOPOLITICS
Key Facts
- —What is happening President Kais Saied, who won a second term on Sunday, 6 October 2024 with 90.69% of the vote, is balancing a trade system tied to Europe against growing links with China, Algeria, Turkey and the Gulf in October 2026.
- —Why it matters Europe took 70.2% of Tunisian exports in the first nine months of 2026, yet no IMF loan approval has been found, so loans, migration controls and energy supplies give outside powers leverage in Tunis.
- —The numbers Tunisia ran a trade deficit of 21.0 billion dinars (about US$7.0 billion) in the first nine months of 2026, and China supplied 12.6% of imports, Italy 11.8% and Algeria 7.1%.
- —Who is who Saied holds executive power, Prime Minister Sarra Zaafrani Zenzri heads the government, Foreign Minister Mohamed Ali Nafti leads diplomacy, and Brahim Bouderbala presides over the parliament in Tunis.
- —What to watch Watch the next joint commission with Algeria, any partnership deal with China, the new electoral law before parliament, and whether Tunis ever reopens talks with the IMF.
- —What it means for you US goods exports to Tunisia were US$589.6 million in 2025 and imports US$1.01 billion, so tariffs, olive oil prices and military training ties are the main points of contact for US readers.
Europe is the market, Washington the training partner and Beijing the supplier, while Algiers and the Gulf offer a cushion. Here is what each power wants from Tunis in October 2026.
Tunisia geopolitics in October 2026 is a balancing act between Europe, which buys 70.2% of exports, and a widening circle of partners. President Kais Saied rejects outside conditions, yet the country still depends on European markets, imported energy and Chinese goods.
This guide sets out what each outside power wants, from loans and military training to phosphates and trade. Every figure carries its date.
More coverage sits on the Rio Times Tunisia page. Conversions use 2.9987 dinars and 0.8915 euros per US$1, the open.er-api.com rate of 23 October 2026 (00:02 UTC).
Who Holds Power in Tunis
Kais Saied won the presidential election of Sunday, 6 October 2024 with 2,438,954 votes, or 90.69%. The electoral commission ISIE announced the final result on Friday, 11 October 2024.
Saied has ruled in a strong presidential system since he suspended parliament on Sunday, 25 July 2021. Critics say he has narrowed political space since then.
The Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, a Washington research group, wrote in July 2026 that some Western ties had grown strained. It added that Tunis has sought partners beyond its traditional allies.
Sarra Zaafrani Zenzri, appointed head of government in March 2025, chaired government meetings on 8 October 2026, the prime minister’s office shows. Brahim Bouderbala, president of the Assembly of the Representatives of the People, chaired its bureau on Friday, 16 October 2026.
Mohamed Ali Nafti is Foreign Minister, and Khaled Shili is Defence Minister. Both appeared in official reports in July and August 2026.
For the domestic picture, read the Rio Times Tunisia explained guide. This pillar focuses on what outsiders want.
Tunisia Geopolitics at a Glance
The list below summarises each relationship using only what the sources checked can confirm. Details and dates follow in the sections after it.
- European Union and Italy: 70.2% of exports, EU grants, the ELMED power link to Italy and migration cooperation.
- United States: goods trade, the African Lion exercise, defence talks, and no Section 301 tariff surcharge on Tunisian goods.
- China: 12.6% of imports, a temporary zero duty offer, a bridge, a cancer centre and partnership talks.
- Russia: the 70th anniversary of ties in July 2026, and imports from Russia down 54%.
- Turkey and India: Turkish imports up 6.7%, and an Indian phosphate and fertiliser joint venture.
- Gulf states: exports to Saudi Arabia up 52.1%, Saudi Fund talks, and no confirmed Qatar or UAE deal.
- Algeria and Libya: a roadmap with Algiers in July 2026 and a border corridor plan with Tripoli.
- BRICS: no membership or application confirmed.
The European Union and Italy, the Anchor Market
The European Union took 35.4 billion dinars (about US$11.8 billion) of Tunisian goods from January to September 2026, or 70.2% of exports. The National Statistics Institute, INS, says that compares with 32.6 billion dinars a year earlier.
France took 22.7% of exports, Italy 16.6%, Germany 14.0% and Spain 5.3%. Imports from the EU were 32.0 billion dinars (about US$10.7 billion), or 44.8% of the total.
Italy supplied 11.8% of Tunisian imports, second only to China, ahead of France at 11.4% and Germany at 7.9%. Imports from France and Italy rose 18.1% and 18.6%.
The EU says it has mobilised over 600 million euros (about US$673 million) in grants since its 2023 partnership with Tunisia. Commissioner Dubravka Šuica made the statement in Tunis in October 2025.
The European Commission’s June 2023 package listed up to 900 million euros (about US$1.01 billion) of loans tied to an IMF programme. It listed 150 million euros (about US$168 million) of 2023 aid and 105 million euros (about US$118 million) for migration.
The memorandum signed in Tunis on Sunday, 16 July 2023 names only a 307 million euro (about US$344 million) ELMED grant. It states no other amounts.
The EU says departures from Tunisia fell 80% in 2024 against 2023. It says they fell a further 86% in 2025 against the same period of 2024.
The EU also announced a 12 million euro (about US$13.5 million) European Investment Bank grant to STEG, the state power utility. It backs ELMED, a planned power cable to Italy meant to allow green electricity exports to Europe by 2040.
The EU calls itself Tunisia’s largest investor and trade partner and links European firms to over 400,000 jobs. The statement also noted the 30th anniversary of the EU Tunisia Association Agreement.
The record points to what Brussels and Rome want: fewer boat departures, stable energy links and open markets. For the Mediterranean setting, see the guide to Tunisia and its neighbours in North Africa.
The United States, Trade and Training
US Census Bureau data show US goods exports to Tunisia of US$589.6 million in 2025 and imports of US$1.01 billion. That left a US deficit of US$424.4 million.
From January to August 2026 US exports were US$407.0 million and imports US$850.9 million. The US deficit for those eight months was US$444.0 million.
The US Trade Representative opened Section 301 forced labour investigations into 60 economies in March 2026. Tunisia was not among them, while Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Morocco were.
USTR set Section 301 tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on those economies from Friday, 24 July 2026, as Section 122 tariffs expired. Tunisia is absent from the final action, so no Section 301 surcharge applies to it.
The outlet Managers wrote on 29 July 2026 that Tunisian goods pay the regular tariff, with no percentage given. Before the Supreme Court tariff ruling, Tunisie Numérique wrote on 2 March 2026, duties on Tunisian goods were about 25%.
The US Army says the African Lion exercise opened on Monday, 13 April 2026 at El Aouina Air Base. Tunisia was hosting for the tenth straight year, with about 560 military personnel taking part there.
On Wednesday, 22 July 2026 Defence Minister Shili met General Dagvin Anderson, commander of US Africa Command, in Tunis. Shili asked for deeper defence technology transfer and strategic and intelligence cooperation, La Presse reported.
A Tunisian American Joint Military Commission was due to meet in the United States in early September 2026, Business News wrote. Whether it met, and what it agreed, was not confirmed.
On Thursday, 22 October 2026 Shili met Laura Gross of the US Defense Threat Reduction Agency in Tunis. They discussed border surveillance, counterterrorism and counter-drone systems, Business News reported.
China, Cheap Imports and Big Projects
China was the largest single source of Tunisian imports from January to September 2026, at 12.6% of the total. That is about 9.0 billion dinars (about US$3.0 billion), and imports from China rose 7.5%.
From January to April 2026 Tunisia’s deficit with China was about 3.77 billion dinars (about US$1.26 billion), roughly half the total deficit. Business News reported the INS figure on 12 May 2026.
Ambassador Wan Li said on 8 May 2026 that China cut duties to zero for 53 African countries on 1 May. For Tunisia, he called it a temporary two year measure.
He said China proposes an early harvest trade deal first and a wider partnership agreement later. Tunisia, he added, would keep the right to exclude sensitive Chinese products.
Wan Li said a Chinese company is building the Bizerte bridge, financed by the European Investment Bank and the African Development Bank. He also cited a planned cancer centre in Gabès and a Chinese built solar plant.
He added that China agreed in principle to finance the El Menzah Olympic stadium rebuild. Sinoma Cement planned a US$20 million investment in 2026, he said.
Saied visited China in 2024, the ambassador said, including the Huawei and BYD sites in Shenzhen. Huawei is involved in Tunisia’s 5G network, he added.
La Presse reported on 18 May 2026 that China is financing the Gabès cancer centre, with works due by end June. The estimated budget is 40 million dinars (about US$13.3 million), and no report of a groundbreaking was found.
La Presse reported on 8 October 2026 that Economy Minister Samir Abdelhafidh and Wan Li urged a joint investment working group. The sources checked give no signed value for the partnership talks, and the ambassador’s claims are his own.
Russia, Turkey and India
Foreign Minister Nafti and Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov exchanged messages on Saturday, 11 July 2026 for the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations. They cited cooperation in agriculture, the economy, science and culture.
Imports from Russia fell 54% from January to September 2026, INS says. The sources checked give no Russian loan, base or trade value.
Imports from Turkey rose 6.7% in the same nine months. Tunisia’s deficit with Turkey was about 1.08 billion dinars (about US$360 million) from January to April 2026.
India’s ambassador Devyani Uttam Khobragade spoke at the Republic Day event in Tunis on Monday, 26 January 2026. Industry Minister Fatma Thabet Chbiboub welcomed recent agreements to raise capital in STIP, the Tunisian Indian Phosphate and Fertilizer Company.
The capital increase is meant to raise phosphoric acid output and phosphate exports to India. Imports from India rose 3.2% from January to September 2026.
The Gulf, the Maghreb Neighbours and the UN
Tunisian exports to Saudi Arabia rose 52.1% from January to September 2026, and to Egypt 78.6%, INS says. Exports to Libya were flat, up 0.03%.
Sultan Al Murshid, head of the Saudi Fund for Development, met Economy Minister Samir Abdelhafidh in Riyadh in October 2025. The fund said it would study new Tunisian projects, and a joint commission was planned for late December 2025.
No Saudi, Qatari or Emirati loan, deposit or investment figure for 2026 was confirmed in the sources checked. Tunis took part in the BRICS summit in Johannesburg in August 2023, but no membership application was confirmed.
Nafti met Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune in Algiers on Wednesday, 8 July 2026. The two sides signed minutes and adopted a roadmap for the 24th Grand Joint Commission, to be held in Algeria.
Algeria supplied 7.1% of Tunisian imports, but Tunisian exports to Algeria fell 11%. Tunisia’s deficit with Algeria was about 1.57 billion dinars (about US$520 million) from January to April 2026.
Tunisia’s foreign minister visited Tripoli on 10 and 11 April 2026 and met Libyan Government of National Unity head Abdelhamid Dbeibah. Tunisia plans a Ras Jedir border corridor to Africa’s interior, with commissioning envisaged for 2029.
No source checked gave Tunisia’s vote on the Ukraine resolution of Monday, 24 February 2025, which passed 93 to 18. On Gaza, Webdo reported that Tunisia abstained on the truce text of Friday, 27 October 2023.
The same outlet wrote that Tunisia voted for the ceasefire resolution of Tuesday, 12 December 2023. It also wrote that Tunisia did not take part in the 12 September 2025 vote on a two state declaration.
Phosphates, Loans and the IMF Standoff
Phosphate and derivative exports fell 16.5% from January to September 2026, INS says. India is investing in a phosphate and fertiliser joint venture with Tunisia.
Olive oil exports rose to 4.01 billion dinars (about US$1.34 billion) from 2.92 billion (about US$0.97 billion). Energy imports rose 32%, and the energy deficit reached 10.5 billion dinars (about US$3.5 billion).
The IMF reached a staff level agreement with Tunisia on Saturday, 15 October 2022 for about US$1.9 billion over 48 months. Its release said the deal needed approval from the IMF Executive Board.
On Thursday, 6 April 2023 Saied said in Monastir that he refused “the diktats imposed from abroad”. No board approval was found in the sources checked, and the Rio Times report on the standoff covers the debt picture.
The central bank put net foreign currency assets on 22 October 2026 at 24.1 billion dinars (about US$8.0 billion). That equals 93 days of imports, and the figure is provisional; an earlier Rio Times report counted 92 days.
The IFC, the World Bank Group’s private sector arm, projects at least US$300 million of investment in Tunisia this year. Read the report on the IFC target for details.
What It Means for US Readers
US goods exports to Tunisia were US$589.6 million in 2025, and imports from Tunisia US$1.01 billion, Census data show. Tunisia supplied about 24.5% of US olive oil needs in 2024 to 2025, Tunisie Numérique wrote.
Investors can watch three signals: any IMF talks, a China trade deal and the US tariff position on Tunisian goods. Each could change costs for firms that source from or sell in Tunisia.
Visitors and expats can start with the Tunisia explained guide. The report on Tunisia holding its key rate at 7% covers prices.
What Is Not Known
USTR names no Tunisia rate since 24 July 2026, and the duty on each product line was not checked. Whether the Joint Military Commission met in September 2026 is unknown.
Tunisia’s vote on the Ukraine resolution of 24 February 2025 could not be confirmed, as UN records were not reachable. The Gaza votes of 2023 rest on Webdo, and the reason for Tunisia’s absence in September 2025 is not public.
Whether China and Tunisia have signed an early harvest or partnership deal is not known, nor whether the Gabès groundbreaking took place. The ambassador’s claims were not checked against Chinese or Tunisian government texts.
No new 2026 EU loan was confirmed, and how much of the 2023 package was paid out was not checked. No IMF board approval, Qatari or Emirati deal, Turkish loan or BRICS application was found.
Algeria’s gas supply to Tunisia and any Algerian deposit were not verified against primary data. Tunisia’s Gaza votes after 2023 were not checked.
No prediction market on Tunisian foreign policy was found on 23 October 2026, so none is shown. Polymarket lists only a closed 2024 election market and football matches.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who runs Tunisia in 2026?
President Kais Saied holds executive power after winning 90.69% of the vote on 6 October 2024. Sarra Zaafrani Zenzri heads the government.
Who is Tunisia’s biggest trading partner?
The European Union took 70.2% of Tunisian exports from January to September 2026. China was the largest single source of imports at 12.6%, ahead of Italy at 11.8%.
Does Tunisia have an IMF programme?
A staff level agreement for about US$1.9 billion was reached on 15 October 2022 and needed board approval. No board approval was found in the sources checked.
Does the United States have a base in Tunisia?
No US base was found in the sources checked. The US Army says the African Lion exercise opened at El Aouina Air Base on 13 April 2026.
Is Tunisia a member of BRICS?
No source checked shows Tunisia as a BRICS member or applicant. Tunis took part in the BRICS summit in Johannesburg in August 2023.
What does the European Union want from Tunisia?
The EU says it has mobilised over 600 million euros (about US$673 million) in grants since 2023. It says departures from Tunisia fell 80% in 2024, and energy links and trade are other priorities.
Sources: INS Tunisia (foreign trade, September 2026); US Census Bureau (trade with Tunisia); USTR (Section 301 investigations, March 2026); USTR (final action, 23 July 2026); Central Bank of Tunisia (indicators, 22 October 2026); European Commission (EU Tunisia partnership package, June 2023); European Commission (memorandum of understanding, 16 July 2023); EU External Action Service (Commissioner Suica in Tunis, October 2025); IMF (staff level agreement, 15 October 2022); Prime Minister’s office, Tunisia (October 2026); Assembly of the Representatives of the People (16 October 2026); USTR (press release, 23 July 2026); EY Tax News (Section 122 expiry, 24 July 2026); Managers (US duties and olive oil, 29 July 2026); US Army (African Lion 2026, 15 April 2026); UN press (General Assembly, 24 February 2025); La Presse (ISIE final results, 12 October 2024); La Presse (Chinese ambassador Wan Li, 8 May 2026); La Presse via AllAfrica (AFRICOM visit, July 2026); Business News (military commission, 24 July 2026); Business News (Shili and DTRA, 23 October 2026); La Presse (Gabès cancer centre, 18 May 2026); La Presse (Tunisia China working group, 8 October 2026); La Presse via AllAfrica (Nafti and Lavrov, 11 July 2026); Business News (Nafti in Algiers, 8 July 2026); Business News (trade deficits, 12 May 2026); La Presse via AllAfrica (Libya and Ras Jedir, 14 April 2026); L’Economiste Maghrebin (India, 27 January 2026); La Presse (Saudi Fund, 29 October 2025); Tunisie Numerique (US tariffs, 2 March 2026); Webdo (Gaza vote, 27 October 2023); Webdo (Gaza ceasefire vote, December 2023); Tunisie Numérique (Ukraine vote totals, February 2025); Kapitalis (BRICS summit, 23 August 2023); Webdo (UN declaration, September 2025); Kapitalis (Saied on the IMF, 6 April 2023); Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy (9 July 2026); open.er-api.com (exchange rates, 23 October 2026) (all accessed 22 and 23 October 2026).