TCU and Baylor meet Saturday, October 17, at 6 p.m. CT at McLane Stadium in Waco, and the stat sheets tell two very different stories. Baylor is 4–1 overall and 2–0 in the Big 12, while TCU is 2–3 and 0–2. Both teams are coming off a bye.
The numbers say a lot about why.
TCU Needs Points to Match Its Yardage
The yardage gap isn’t wild. Baylor averages 461.4 yards per game to TCU’s 405.4. The scoreboard gap is much wider: Baylor averages 34.8 points per game, while TCU averages 25.4.
TCU is gaining yards but struggling to turn them into points against Power Four opponents. Through three games against North Carolina, UCF and BYU, the Frogs have scored just three touchdowns, one in each game.
The point totals were 10, 13 and 10. That’s 33 points in three games, or 11 per game. The season average of 25.4 is boosted by the wins over Grambling State and Arkansas State.
That is the offensive problem TCU carries into the Revivalry. Moving the ball has to lead to something on the scoreboard.
Related: TCU Looks for Answers Against Baylor as Other Power Four Teams Find Relief
TCU’s Defense Has Kept the Frogs Close
The Frogs’ defense has been very good. TCU is allowing 13.4 points and 255 yards per game, compared with 14.2 points and 326.6 yards allowed by Baylor.
Against BYU, TCU held the Cougars to 216 total yards but still lost 17–10. The offense did not provide enough support, and the defense could not get the late stop the Frogs needed.
That has been the frustration. TCU has received defensive performances good enough to give it a chance, but those chances have not turned into wins against Power Four competition.
DJ Lagway Gives Baylor Momentum
The Bears’ numbers point to a team finding its identity. Baylor has won four straight since its season-opening loss to Auburn.
The most recent was a 55–19 win at Arizona State, where DJ Lagway completed 25 of 40 passes for 306 yards and a career-high four touchdown passes. He added a rushing touchdown.
Gavin Freeman gives Baylor a productive receiving threat. He has 42 catches for 479 yards and two touchdowns through five games.
The defense is also doing its part. Baylor has held every opponent to 19 points or fewer, so the Bears are not leaning only on offense.
The running game deserves attention, too. Baylor rushed for 244 yards against Arizona State, including touchdown runs of 63 and 75 yards. TCU cannot focus on Lagway and assume everything else will take care of itself.
What Has to Change for TCU
The bye week gave TCU time to address its offense. Now Sonny Dykes and his staff have to show that the time produced something.
Whatever adjustments they make, the Frogs need more than the one-touchdown performances they have delivered against Power Four opponents.
The defense has shown it can keep games close. Asking it to carry another game while the offense stays near 10 points is a difficult way to win.
A loss would drop TCU to 2–4 overall and 0–3 in the Big 12. Baylor, meanwhile, has an opportunity to protect its unbeaten conference record.
Related: What Saturday’s Big 12 Games Mean for TCU Before Baylor
Three Things to Watch in the Revivalry
1. TCU’s third-down conversions and scoring opportunities
A drive that stalls at the opponent’s 30-yard line and ends in a field goal still leaves points behind. Once TCU reaches the red zone, finishing with touchdowns becomes even more important. Those possessions will say more than total yardage.
2. Turnovers and short fields
With TCU’s offense this inconsistent, one giveaway could swing the game. Making Baylor drive the length of the field gives the Frogs’ defense a better chance than repeatedly asking it to defend short fields.
3. Whether offensive improvement lasts
An early touchdown would help. Following it with more productive possessions would matter much more. TCU needs an offensive performance it can sustain beyond a single drive.
Related: West Virginia Needed 104 Plays. Arizona Needed 51. What TCU Should Learn
History Offers TCU Some Hope
History is a small comfort for the Frogs. TCU has won nine of the past 11 meetings, including last year’s 42–36 victory.
Still, the recent scoring numbers favor Baylor. If the Frogs can reach 24 points, their defense could give them a real chance. That is a reasonable target, not a guarantee.
TCU does not need another week of explaining why the offense should be better. It needs a Saturday when it actually is.
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