There has been a surprisingly calm feeling around the Michigan State football building this week.
The Spartans (2-5 overall, 0-4 Big Ten) are losers of five in a row, but MSU feels like it's making progress. Victories have just barely eluded it two weeks in a row, but home games against Illinois and then-No. 25 Northwestern are smaller challenges than what Michigan State faces now.
A road game at No. 9 UCLA (6-0 overall, 4-0 Big Ten) is next up. These Bruins, also in their first year with a head coach (Bob Chesney), are firmly in the race for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Opportunities are running low for MSU and Pat Fitzgerald to give a starving fanbase something to feel good about, at least this season. A top-10 road win would certainly qualify, though it would take an awful lot. Here's what it may take for the Spartans to steal this one, as well as some reasons why it probably won't happen.
When Michigan State Has the Ball
The very first question for Michigan State's offense is simply about who is going to play. Starting quarterback Alessio Milivojevic and running back Jaziun Patterson have both been listed as questionable on the team's availability reports leading up to this game.
When and how both players got hurt is a bit of a mystery -- Fitzgerald said the team was "injury-free" after the Northwestern game -- but what's important is that MSU may not have two very significant contributors on its offense available for this one.
True freshman Kayd Coffman would likely get the start if Miliojevic cannot play. Coffman has only appeared in one game thus far in his first college season, coming in at the end of the Wisconsin game. He didn't throw a pass and recorded minus-1 yard on three rushing attempts.
Coffman is an interesting dual-threat QB with impressive arm talent and speed. He's got serious upside as a former 4-star, in-state recruit, but quarterback is a mature man's position. This wasn't the year Coffman was really supposed to see the field and sling the ball, but that might have to be the case.
"Every fan thinks that backup quarterback should be the starter," was the joke Fitzgerald made during his Monday press conference.
Patterson potentially not playing would be another big hit. He's been pretty effective as the team's RB1 since Cam Edwards went down with a season-ending knee injury. It would be pretty tough for any offense to operate well with its QB3 and RB3 as the starters. Marvis Parrish would likely start if Patterson cannot go. Kenneth Williams and/or Brandon Tullis would also probably become more involved.
Starting left tackle Ben Murawski is also questionable. He missed the Northwestern game, leading the Spartans starting Rakeem Johnson at left tackle and Robert Wright Jr. on the right side. The offensive line held up pretty well against Northwestern, only allowing one sack and winning in the run game for a solid portion of the contest.
UCLA's defense is tough, though. The Bruins have allowed 16.2 points per game thus far, which is 19th in the country and sixth in the Big Ten. That unit has gotten better as of late as well, only allowing 25 points in its last three games.
When UCLA Has the Ball
Injuries are a major storyline for both teams on the other side of the ball. Michigan State is hoping to get some reinforcements at linebacker this week. Brady Pretzlaff and Caleb Wheatland are both considered questionable to play this weekend.
Pretzlaff and Wheatland would be two significant contributors for MSU if the whole team were healthy. Just getting one of them back this week would be huge for the Spartans' defense, which has really struggled with its open-field tackling in the last few games. That's especially true given UCLA's run game, which tops the Big Ten at 231.0 yards per contest. Running back Wayne Knight leads the way there with 571 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground this season.
On the UCLA side, the major storyline is the second start for quarterback Ty Dieffenbach. He's taking over as the Bruins' starter after Nico Iamaleava suffered a season-ending injury at Oregon. Dieffenbach, who transferred in from Cal Poly this offseason, threw for 264 yards last week in a 17-7 win over Wisconsin.
Dieffenbach can be a bit turnover-prone, but he can also make some real big-time throws. Michigan State's cornerback room will remain pretty short-handed again this week. Four of the team's top five corners -- Tre Bell, Charles Brantley, Tyran Chappell, and Keshawn Williams -- are all out again. NiJhay Burt and true freshman Jeremiah Favorite are set to be the Spartans' starters.
Final Prediction
It's tough to get a great read on how this one will go. Milivojevic's status is, obviously, a huge factor, and Michigan State hasn't played a road game in a few weeks. The Spartans also haven't gone across the country for a game like this one.
Ultimately, UCLA is playing like a CFP-caliber team. MSU is far from that. I'll offer two different predictions today -- one for if Milivojevic plays and another for if he doesn't -- but his status won't ultimately determine who comes out on top.
If Milivojevic Plays: No. 9 UCLA 27, Michigan State 10
If Milivojevic Doesn't Play: No. 9 UCLA 31, Michigan State 7
Add us as a preferred source on Google