Nigeria is not doomed: Countering the forces of polarisation, By Chris Ngwodo

Ultimately, national cohesion cannot be sustained by exhortation alone. It must be cultivated through equitable institutions, shared prosperity and empathetic leadership at all levels. Nigeria’s diversity is not a death sentence. Our differences need not become divisions, nor must competition degenerate into conflict. The Republic’s future remains ours to shape. Nigeria is not doomed to destruction. With intelligent policymaking, inclusive citizenship and leadership sufficiently empathetic to recognise our common humanity, polarisation can be defeated.

Since the inception of the modern Nigerian state, observers have repeatedly contemplated its bewildering diversity and issued earnest forecasts of its impending disintegration. Across successive decades, scholars, intelligence services, think tanks and assorted professional obituarists have confidently predicted the Republic’s demise. Yet Nigeria endures, in stubborn defiance of its prophets of doom. As one born after the Civil War, I have witnessed repeated invocations of imminent national calamity. With another electoral season approaching, polarisation has again assumed topical significance. Some commentators contend that Nigeria’s ethnic and religious heterogeneity makes it fundamentally unworkable. I disagree.

Nigeria is neither uniquely divided nor exceptionally afflicted by communal prejudice. Every diverse society contends with varying degrees of mutual suspicion, chauvinism and bigotry. If Nigerians were constitutionally incapable of coexistence, the federation would have collapsed long ago. Its survival through civil war, economic upheavals, authoritarian rule and recurrent political crises suggests something more complicated than the familiar narrative of irreconcilable antagonisms.

The fundamental problem is not that Nigerians viscerally hate one another. It is that our political economy has made identity a principal currency of access to opportunity. In a society where public employment, political appointments, economic patronage and access to state resources are frequently mediated through communal affiliations, citizenship becomes less a shared entitlement than a contest for preferential access to the proverbial national cake.

This competition often manifests through the pernicious distinction between indigenes and settlers, an exclusionary framework that elevates ancestral provenance above constitutional citizenship. Elsewhere, socioeconomic grievances are conveniently repackaged as ethnic or religious hostilities. Complex struggles over land, livelihoods, political representation and public resources are reduced to supposedly primordial hatreds. The resulting polarisation is neither inevitable nor immutable. It is substantially manufactured by institutions, incentives and political choices.

…combatting polarisation requires more than ceremonial appeals to national unity. It demands an economic transformation capable of generating opportunities at a scale commensurate with Nigeria’s demographic pressures. Sustained, inclusive, ideally double-digit economic growth should be a national ambition, accompanied by investments in education, employment and social protection.

Economic adversity compounds the problem. Where legitimate opportunities are scarce, the impulse to retreat into narrower circles of communal solidarity becomes especially powerful. Political entrepreneurs exploit this insecurity, offering ethnic and religious protection as substitutes to effective governance. This is hardly an exclusively Nigerian pathology. Economic dislocation has energised nativist movements across Western democracies, while xenophobic violence in South Africa illustrates how socioeconomic frustrations can be redirected against perceived outsiders.

Consequently, combatting polarisation requires more than ceremonial appeals to national unity. It demands an economic transformation capable of generating opportunities at a scale commensurate with Nigeria’s demographic pressures. Sustained, inclusive, ideally double-digit economic growth should be a national ambition, accompanied by investments in education, employment and social protection.

There are, however, encouraging signs that the integrative forces within Nigerian society remain formidable. The Africa Polling Institute’s 2026 Nigeria Social Cohesion Survey recorded a Social Cohesion Index of 48.8 per cent, up from 46.8 per cent in 2025, and the highest since its surveys began in 2019. Remarkably, for the first time, a majority of respondents identified primarily as Nigerians, rather than through ethnic, religious or regional affiliations. Furthermore, 77 per cent expressed willingness to cooperate with citizens of other ethnic groups to strengthen national unity. These findings do not suggest that our divisions have disappeared. Indeed, perceptions of polarisation remain troubling. They do, however, challenge the fashionable assumption that Nigeria is irredeemably fractured.

We need enforceable guarantees of equal citizenship, civic education that interrogates inherited prejudices, and a more historically literate understanding of the longstanding interactions among Nigeria’s peoples. Government must confront discriminatory practices, while ensuring that public institutions reward merit, fairness and inclusion.

Meanwhile, rapid urbanisation is producing increasingly cosmopolitan, culturally hybrid Nigerians whose identities transcend inherited communal boundaries. Across our cities, interethnic commerce, professional relationships, friendships and marriages continually renegotiate the meaning of belonging. Even social media, frequently condemned as an amplifier of prejudice, enables new solidarities across traditional fault lines. Intelligent public policy must accelerate these tendencies.

We need enforceable guarantees of equal citizenship, civic education that interrogates inherited prejudices, and a more historically literate understanding of the longstanding interactions among Nigeria’s peoples. Government must confront discriminatory practices, while ensuring that public institutions reward merit, fairness and inclusion. Equally important is restoring security to highways and commercial corridors. Insecurity discourages travel, interrupts trade and enlarges the psychological distances between communities. Roads, railways and safe transportation networks are therefore not merely economic infrastructure; they are instruments of nation-building.

Ultimately, national cohesion cannot be sustained by exhortation alone. It must be cultivated through equitable institutions, shared prosperity and empathetic leadership at all levels. Nigeria’s diversity is not a death sentence. Our differences need not become divisions, nor must competition degenerate into conflict. The Republic’s future remains ours to shape. Nigeria is not doomed to destruction. With intelligent policymaking, inclusive citizenship and leadership sufficiently empathetic to recognise our common humanity, polarisation can be defeated. Our history demonstrates our capacity to endure. Our task now is to learn how to flourish together.

Chris Ngwodo is the director general of the Office for Strategic Preparedness and Resilience (OSPRE).