BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened A local electoral court ordered the Federal Police to open an inquiry into Ana Elisa, a 21-year-old lawmaker-elect from Lula’s Workers’ Party.
- The complaint Flávio Bolsonaro says her posts on X falsely claimed he wanted to remove Our Lady Aparecida as Brazil’s patron saint.
- The limit The judge refused his request to bar her from posting about the race, so she can keep commenting.
- The status A police probe gathers evidence and is not a finding of guilt. No charge has been filed.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 79.2% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (16 October, 1:48 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 79% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 21% and 22%), as of 16 October, 1:40 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
A Brazilian electoral court has ordered a police probe of Ana Elisa, a 21-year-old lawmaker-elect from Lula’s party. Brazilian outlets reported the order on Thursday 15 October, ten days before the presidential runoff.
The complaint behind the police probe came from Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative senator who faces President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Sunday 25 October. He says her posts on X falsely claimed he wanted to remove Our Lady Aparecida as Brazil’s patron saint.
What the Court Ordered
The order came from the 103rd Electoral Zone in Divinópolis, a city in the central state of Minas Gerais. Judge Orlando Israel de Souza signed it, according to Metropoles and SBT News.
The judge told the Federal Police office in Divinópolis to open a police probe into a possible electoral crime. He also ordered X Brasil Internet, the Brazilian unit of X, to preserve records of the disputed posts from 24 September to 8 October.
Electoral prosecutors backed the police probe and said they had found enough elements to examine the possible spreading of knowingly false information. The judge sent the file to the Electoral Attorney General’s Office, the national prosecution service for elections, SBT News reported.
Flávio Bolsonaro also asked the judge to bar Ana Elisa from posting what he considers false content about the presidential race. Prosecutors called that request too broad, and the judge rejected it, according to Rede 98.
The Post at the Center of the Case
Flávio Bolsonaro’s lawyers filed a criminal notice, known in Brazil as a notícia-crime, over posts on X about Our Lady Aparecida. According to the complaint, the posts said he wanted to remove her title as Patroness of Brazil, JD1 Notícias reported.
Our Lady Aparecida is the Virgin Mary figure honoured as Brazil’s patron saint, and Brazil marks a national holiday for her on 12 October. The rumour spread widely in late September, as an earlier Rio Times report described, and Flávio denied it in a video.
On 25 September, TSE Minister André Mendonça, a judge on Brazil’s top electoral court, called the claim notoriously untrue and ordered posts removed. Supreme Court Minister Flávio Dino later set aside that order in a preliminary ruling, Aos Fatos reported.
The fact-checking site Aos Fatos traced the story to older false rumours from 2018 and 2022 about his father, ex-President Jair Bolsonaro. The police probe does not decide whether Ana Elisa’s own posts were false.
Who Ana Elisa Is
Ana Elisa Santos Silva, 21, was born in Divinópolis and is a law student, NC News reported. She won a seat in the Chamber of Deputies, Brazil’s lower house, with 524,219 votes in the first round on 4 October.
She has been working on Lula’s digital campaign, Congresso em Foco reported. She is due to take her seat when the new Congress opens on 1 February 2027.
After the order she wrote that she is a 21-year-old from the interior of Minas Gerais with 524,000 votes and 4 million followers. She asked why a presidential candidate is so afraid of what she has to say, Diário de Pernambuco reported.
She told Rede 98 she would not comment further until she sees the inquiry file. On 9 October the Justice Ministry had asked the Federal Police to investigate death and rape threats against her, Gazeta SP reported.
What the Law Says
Article 323 of Brazil’s Electoral Code covers spreading facts known to be untrue about parties or candidates during a campaign when they can sway voters. The penalty is two months to one year in detention or a fine, according to the text of the code.
The penalty rises by a third to a half when the offence is committed through the internet or social networks. An inquiry only gathers evidence, and any charge would come later.
What It Means for You
If you follow US politics, the case shows how Brazil’s runoff fight now plays out on X, a US platform, and in courtrooms. Electoral judges have already ordered posts removed in this campaign, and the runoff poll tracker shows where the race stands.
If you invest in Brazil, the runoff matters more than this case. A Quaest poll on 14 October put Flávio at 46% and Lula at 44%, and the police probe has no stated deadline.
The order does not stop Ana Elisa from posting. The inquiry itself carries no ruling on whether the posts were false.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 79.2% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (16 October, 1:48 a.m. ET). Lula stands at 20.5%, and Flávio’s price fell 3.7 points over the previous 24 hours while Lula’s rose 4.0 points.
The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$184.2 million in total bets. These are bets, not polls, and they can move fast on court news.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 79.2% · Lula 20.5% (US$184 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 22%
As of 16 October, 1:40 am ET (06:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Which posts the Federal Police will examine, and when the police probe will finish, are not yet public. Whether the police probe leads to a charge is open.
The exact wording of the posts under review has not been made public. Whether either side will appeal the judge’s decision is not stated.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Ana Elisa?
Ana Elisa Santos Silva is a 21-year-old lawmaker-elect from Lula’s Workers’ Party in Minas Gerais. She won 524,219 votes in the first round on 4 October.
What did the electoral court order?
The court ordered the Federal Police to open an inquiry into a possible electoral crime. It also told X to preserve records of the disputed posts from 24 September to 8 October.
Why did Flávio Bolsonaro file the complaint?
He says her posts falsely claimed he wanted to remove Our Lady Aparecida as Brazil’s patron saint. His lawyers argue this breaks Article 323 of the Electoral Code.
Can Ana Elisa keep posting about the election?
Yes, because the judge rejected the request to bar her from posting about the race. She can keep commenting on the presidential contest.
Does the police probe change the 25 October vote?
No ruling changes the date or the rules of the vote. Brazilians choose between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro on Sunday 25 October.
Sources: Metropoles, 15 October 2026; SBT News, 15 October 2026; Rede 98, 15 October 2026; JD1 Notícias, 15 October 2026; Diário de Pernambuco (Estadão Conteúdo), 15 October 2026; Jovem Pan (Estadão Conteúdo), 15 October 2026; Gazeta SP, 9 October 2026; NC News, 9 October 2026; Congresso em Foco, 8 October 2026; Aos Fatos, 26 September 2026; Presidency of Brazil, Electoral Code (Law 4,737/1965), 15 July 1965.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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