National is dangling tax cuts for voters, but not until the books are back in surplus - which isn't forecast until at least 2029.
The party is committing to an independent costings unit at the 2029 election to prevent the constant public bickering between parties over fiscal holes. It's also allocating $451.8 million to extend the school lunch programme through until the next election.
Leader Christopher Luxon and Finance Minister Nicola Willis released the party's fiscal plan on Monday, which for the most part is very in line with what Treasury's books revealed at the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (Prefu) last month.
Willis had attempted to get a publicly funded election policy-costing unit across the line this term, but it was shot down by both coalition partners, Act and New Zealand First.
While National could have promised tax cuts with the books looking rosier in the short-term, including an intention to borrow $15 billion less over the next four years, Willis said it wouldn't be right to do so.
"While our fiscal plan shows a pathway to potential tax relief for working New Zealanders, now is not the time to cut taxes.
"National's priority is to get on top of the debt first so that our kids and grandkids aren't left with a bigger bill and to ensure we have a bigger buffer to withstand future global shocks," she said.
"Once the books are back in the black and surpluses are growing, a National Government will be in a position to consider tax relief. But the priority is making the forecasts a reality by delivering a return to surplus and less debt."
Once all costs and pledges were considered the net fiscal impact of National's election commitments, outside of health cost pressure funding, is $470m on average per annum, Willis said.
"We have set aside a total of $15.4 billion for additional health investment over the next four years, which includes National's medicines and bowel screening election commitments.
"That still leaves $7.5 billion for other cost pressures and new initiatives, including the usual yearly uplifts for areas like education and policing."
Willis noted in the fiscal plan that National didn't need to find any new funding for pay equity.
"A contingency for the costs of future pay equity settlements in the public sector is already in the accounts."
National's biggest commitments in its fiscal plan are in health, with policies in those areas making up 88% of all commitments for the party.
"A total of $7.5 billion operating is left unallocated over the four years. This is to cover net new operating spending in that period, over and above the election commitments specified in the table.
"In addition, a total of $14.2 billion remains to be allocated from capital allowances in future Budgets," Willis said.
The latest forecasts show an operating surplus of $4b in 2028/29, growing to $11.7b in 2030/31.
