Thursday Night Football heads to Chicago for a Patriots-Bears affair in the Windy City. Two young quarterbacks will gun for the victory: Drake Maye and Caleb Williams. Both have shown promise early in their NFL careers and, at their best, have QB1 upside in fantasy football. Who might do better tonight? Let's run the numbers.
Fantasy Points Allowed Statistics are from FootballDB
Defensive EPA Statistics are from Draftwithdoug
The Case of Drake Maye
Maye is averaging 30.5 passing attempts, 19.5 completions, 217 passing yards, 1.8 passing touchdowns, and 1.2 interceptions per game. He is adding another 5.7 rushing attempts, 31 rushing yards, 0.2 rushing touchdowns, and 0.8 fumbles per game.
However, Maye has taken a turn for the better in recent weeks. Maye has 10 passing touchdowns and 1 interception over his last three games. He ranks 9th in PFF Passing Grade.
I hypothesize that Maye had a bumpy start to the season partly due to playing with new No. 1 and No. 2 pass-catchers, AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs. He now has things sorted out.
The Bears rank 19th in Fantasy Points Allowed to Quarterbacks. They rank 9th-best in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks at 11.7 per game, 11th-worst in Quarterback Rushing Fantasy Points Allowed per game, and 10th-worst in Quarterback Rushing Yards per Attempt Allowed.
Most of Maye's points will come from his passing. The Bears rank highly in EPA metrics. In Defensive Pass EPA Allowed per Play, the Bears are 5th-best in the NFL.
I ultimately do have Maye's Week 7 projection as favorable: QB4. His rushing expectation leads all quarterbacks. He is hard to contain as a sharp scrambler. He rushed for 628 yards in 2025 and 421 yards in his 2024 rookie season.
The Bears' pass defense isn't elite enough to contain Maye. Josh McDaniels runs a West Coast offense that spreads the ball around. Don't expect Chicago to clamp down on this Patriots offense, especially in a short week.
The Case of Caleb Williams
Williams has essentially played three games. In Week 2, he was injured in the fourth quarter. He averages 30.3 passing attempts, 22.0 completions, 237 passing yards, 1.0 passing touchdown, and 0.3 interceptions per game. Williams also has 3.2 rushing attempts, 37 rushing yards, 0.7 rushing touchdowns, and 0.7 fumbles per game.
Across three games, Williams is ranked 22nd in PFF Passing Grade but 4th in EPA per Dropback. He may not be the sharpest signal-caller, but he makes plays.
The Patriots will offer a difficult matchup tonight. They rank 7th in Fantasy Points Allowed to Quarterbacks. They also contain the run game, ranking 10th-best in Fantasy Points Allowed per Game and 7th-best in Yards Allowed per Attempt.
In EPA, the Patriots rank 13th in Defensive Pass EPA Allowed per Play. So they're closer to mediocre once you remove any volume that may skew the fantasy points you get. For example, the Dolphins allow few of fantasy points via passing, but they face a weak 49% pass rate.
Williams' Week 7 projection is QB10 in fantasy football. He has some ups and downs.
The Patriots are without starting cornerback Carlton Davis. Charles Woods, who ranks 71st in PFF Coverage Grade, replaces him and allows 13.5 yards per reception and 8.1 yards per target. That bodes well for Luther Burden III and Kalif Raymond, as Christian Gonzalez should see a great deal of Rome Odunze.
Nonetheless, the game is on a short week. Chicago has historically had a strong home-field advantage, and this crowd should be rowdy enough to carry it. But the Patriots, minus one player, should still have a stronger defense when facing Williams.
Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Drake Maye or Caleb Williams?
Maye is ultimately the better play in Week 7. He has the slightly better matchup. Maye has higher rushing upside: 19 more yards and an 8.7% higher chance of scoring a touchdown.
The advanced metrics also show Maye has been better in 2026, as the publication noted earlier. All key factors go into their projections, and Maye is expected to score 3.3 more fantasy points. Rock with Drake Maye on Thursday Night.
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