BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Saturday, 24 October, 7:00 p.m. ET · Source: BTG Pactual/Nexus
Key Facts
- What happened The BTG Pactual/Nexus poll was released on Saturday 24 October, one day before Brazil’s runoff.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 50.5% of valid votes and Lula has 49.5%, a 1-point gap.
- Raw totals Flávio has 47% and Lula 46%, with 5.2% blank or null and 1.8% undecided.
- What changed On 19 October the same poll had Flávio at 50.3% and Lula at 49.7% of valid votes.
- Margin of error 2.2 points, up or down, so the two candidates are in a technical tie.
- Fieldwork 2,000 voters interviewed by telephone on 23 and 24 October, registered as BR-08234/2026.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 84% chance of winning the runoff (24 October, 7:00 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 84% and Kalshi at 83% (Lula: 17% and 18%), as of 24 October, 7:00 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, leads Luís Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, by 50.5% to 49.5% of valid votes in the final BTG Pactual/Nexus poll, released on Saturday 24 October. The one-point gap is a technical tie in the Brazil election 2026 runoff on Sunday 25 October.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0%, Lula 49.0%
43 national polls from 20 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
Nexus is a Brazilian polling firm, and the investment bank BTG Pactual paid for the survey. It adds to our Brazil election polls tracker, which lists every survey of the runoff.
What the BTG/Nexus Poll Found
Nexus interviewed 2,000 voters aged 16 or older by telephone in all 27 federal units on Friday 23 and Saturday 24 October, Metrópoles reported. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, and the poll is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-08234/2026.
In raw totals, Flávio has 47% and Lula 46%, with 5.2% saying they will vote blank or null and 1.8% undecided, according to Jovem Pan. Once blank, null and undecided answers are set aside, the split becomes 50.5% to 49.5% in Flávio’s favour.
How the Poll Compares With the Last One
On 19 October, the same poll had Flávio at 50.3% and Lula at 49.7% of valid votes, Jovem Pan reported. Our report on the earlier BTG/Nexus poll covers that survey.
Flávio is up 0.2 points and Lula down 0.2 points since then. That change is far smaller than the 2.2-point margin of error.
Valid Votes and Technical Ties Explained
Brazilian results are counted in valid votes, which leave out blank and spoiled ballots. Pollsters publish that figure to match what the electoral court will announce.
A technical tie means the gap is within the margin of error. With a 2.2-point margin, this poll cannot say who is truly ahead.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can bring sharp price moves once the result is known. Our Brazil election odds page tracks how traders read each new survey.
For US trade and diplomacy, the winner will set Brazil’s course with Washington for four years. A 1-point gap sits inside the margin of error, so neither candidate is a certain winner.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 83.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 16.5% (24 October, 7:00 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$196 million in total bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 83.8% · Lula 16.5% (US$196 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 83% · Lula 18%
As of 24 October, 7:00 pm ET (00:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Undecided voters and those who will vote blank or null do not count in the valid-vote result, so how they act on 25 October is unknown. The poll also cannot say how many people will turn out.
A telephone poll reaches only people who answer, and any poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews. It does not forecast the outcome.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest BTG/Nexus runoff poll?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 50.5% of valid votes against 49.5% for Lula. The poll was released on Saturday 24 October, a day before the vote.
What is the margin of error?
The margin is 2.2 percentage points, up or down, at a 95% confidence level. The 1-point gap is therefore a technical tie.
Who ordered and ran the poll?
The investment bank BTG Pactual commissioned the survey and the Nexus institute carried it out. It interviewed 2,000 voters by telephone on 23 and 24 October.
How does this compare with the previous BTG/Nexus poll?
On 19 October the poll had Flávio at 50.3% and Lula at 49.7% of valid votes. Flávio is up 0.2 points and Lula down 0.2 points.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October to choose the president for a four-year term. The electoral court (TSE) announces the official result.
Sources: CNN Brasil, 24 October 2026; Jovem Pan, 24 October 2026; Metrópoles, 24 October 2026; Jovem Pan, 19 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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