BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 16. Fitch Ratings has affirmed Astana Motors Finance TOO's (AMF) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B' and its National Long-Term Rating at 'BB(kaz)', with stable outlooks, according to the agency's report.
Fitch said AMF's rating reflects its strong profitability, moderate leverage and good asset quality, while also taking into account the company's much smaller scale than international peers, limited funding flexibility and short track record through the cycle.
AMF is a Kazakhstan-based leasing company that provides finance and operating leases for vehicles exclusively in Kazakhstan. Its total assets amounted to $86 million at the end of the first half of 2026. At the end of 2025, finance leases and operating lease assets accounted for 65% and 24% of total assets, respectively, while passenger cars represented more than 90% of leased assets.
AMF is a subsidiary of Astana Motors, one of Kazakhstan's largest automotive manufacturers, distributors and retailers. The group supports the company's business origination, with 70% of new business coming through its dealer network. However, AMF's small scale, narrow product and geographic focus, dependence on a single dealer group and short track record through the cycle constrain its business profile.
Fitch also highlighted AMF's off-balance-sheet obligations arising from co-guarantees provided in 2025 for Astana Motors group companies in favour of ForteBank. The total nominal amount of the guarantees was 102 billion tenge, although AMF's obligations are limited to its pro rata share of net assets within the pool of co-guarantors.
The fair value of the guarantee obligations disclosed in the company's audited accounts for 2025 amounted to 454 million tenge, or 6% of its equity. Most of the guarantees expire between 2027 and the first half of 2028.
"We believe that contingent risk is currently contained, but AMF's credit profile is sensitive to it," Fitch said.
The company's gross finance lease portfolio contracted by 2% in 2025 and 4% in the first half of 2026, following rapid growth in 2021-2022. Fitch said vehicle collateral and the relative liquidity of passenger cars mitigate credit risk, while the operating lease fleet exposes AMF to residual value risk. Concentration in one country, product and asset class remains high.
AMF's asset quality improved in 2025. The impaired finance lease ratio declined to 1% at the end of the year from 2.4% at the end of 2024, while total loss-allowance coverage of impaired receivables increased to 157% from 62%.
Fitch said low impairment losses reflect vehicle collateral, improving loan-to-value ratios as leases amortise, and the company's effective recovery and remarketing capabilities. Gains from the sale of leased assets also remained strong in 2025.
The agency expects some normalisation as rapidly originated lease vintages mature and economic conditions remain challenging. However, it expects the impaired finance lease ratio to remain low, potentially moving towards 2% by the end of 2027. Fitch said the recent improvement reinforces rather than materially changes an existing rating strength.
AMF's pre-tax income-to-average-assets ratio declined to 5.1% in 2025 from 7% in 2024 and stood at an annualised 5% in the first half of 2026. Gains from the sale of leased assets accounted for 25% of pre-tax income in 2025, compared with 29% in 2024. Fitch expects this contribution to moderate but considers profitability a rating strength, supported by wide margins and low impairment charges.
The company's gross debt-to-tangible-equity ratio declined to 3.2 times at the end of the first half of 2026, compared with 4 times at the end of 2025 and 4.8 times at the end of 2024. Fitch attributed the improvement to portfolio contraction and strong retained profits rather than a structural change in risk appetite.
Internal capital generation remained strong at about 20% of beginning equity in 2025, after AMF distributed 44% of its net income as dividends. Fitch expects leverage to remain between 3 and 3.5 times through the end of 2027, as retained earnings broadly offset the resumption of growth and moderate dividend distributions.
AMF relies heavily on funding from ForteBank but expects to diversify its funding base through additional bilateral facilities in the second half of 2026 and in 2027. Broadly matched asset and liability maturities and fixed interest rates on both sides help mitigate liquidity and interest-rate risks.
Fitch said an increase in AMF's gross debt-to-tangible-equity ratio to above 7 times, particularly if driven by losses, could lead to a downgrade. A deterioration in asset quality, with Stage 3 and Stage 2 exposures exceeding 10%, or a significant worsening of AMF's funding profile or that of the wider group could also trigger negative rating action.
An increased likelihood of a call on guarantees provided by AMF to the parent group due to a deterioration in the group's creditworthiness could also result in a downgrade. Enforcement of these guarantees would result in a multi-notch downgrade.
Fitch considers an upgrade of AMF's rating unlikely in the near term. Over the longer term, an expansion of the company's franchise through a broader customer base and additional revenue streams, together with a reduction in leverage to below 3 times while maintaining tight control over impairment charges and operating efficiency, could lead to positive rating action.