Brocky Purdy fell back toward earth in Week 5. The fact he did so whilst beating the defending Super Bowl champions on the road with a depleted cast highlights just how far he'd risen the first four weeks of the 2026 NFL regular season.
That performance, whether a speed bump, regression, or start to a frustrating slump, put him atop this weeks' gross quarterback ranks even if he outperformed a good portion of the league. There's no doubt the San Francisco 49ers performance in Seattle was better offensive football than a Cleveland Browns-New York Jets slog on a rainy day, but these aren't straight-ahead rankings. They're a disappointment index.
Relative to his early season level of play, Purdy was the biggest letdown.
There's no perfect metric for a quarterback's impact, but expected points added (EPA) helps measure their ability to swing the outcome of a game through the air, on the ground and through avoiding negative plays. Last year, EPA told us Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford were a cut above the rest of the league's quarterbacks in the regular season, netting 151.3 and 120.3 EPA, respectfully. No one else in the league topped triple digits. Unsurprisingly, those two led playoff teams and finished second and first, respectively, in MVP voting.
We can use EPA to help dissect which quarterbacks underwhelmed the hardest in their debut. By comparing their Week 5 EPA across their early 2026 season averages, we get a better idea of whose fans should be most annoyed. And so, we end up with a "worst QBs" list that doesn't include Malik Willis or Jalen Hurts, simply because their starts to the season have been so disappointing we've been moderately conditioned not to expect more this fall. You have to be at least decent in 2026 — or otherworldly awful on a given week — to wind up in the gross QB rankings.
We'll also look at completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which gives you a good idea of which quarterbacks are making tough throws (and, in some cases, being bailed out by exceptional catches). All data come from NFL Pro.
We'll also keep a running tally of the times each quarterback lands here. We'll score that placement track meet style — 10 points for first place, then eight, six, four, two and one — in order to figure out who was truly 2026's grossest passer.
Honorable mention: Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints
- 2026 EPA/game: -2.7
- Week 5 EPA: -11.7
- Difference: 9.0 points worse
- 2026 CPOE: 2.5 percent
- Week 5 CPOE: -2.3 percent
- Difference: 4.8 points worse
After a rousing start, Shough has looked like a 27-year-old quarterback who fell to the second round of the 2025 draft. As per tradition, the Minnesota Vikings threw extra defenders at him until he crumbled. A 61 percent blitz rate gave way to a 50 percent pressure rate, both the highest he's faced this season. That tamped his average throw distance down and had him hearing footsteps in the pocket even when protected.
✌️ for @byronmurphy
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 11, 2026
📺: @NFLonFOXpic.twitter.com/Y3EGDzLQAQ
5. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
- 2026 EPA/game: 7.3
- Week 5 EPA: -3.7
- Difference: 11 points worse
- 2026 CPOE: Three percent
- Week 5 CPOE: Negative-six percent
- Difference: Nine points worse
Prescott's dropoff in Week 5, even against a then-winless team in primetime, wasn't entirely unpredictable. While the Cowboys have one of the league's most explosive offenses, they were up against Todd Bowles' top-five defense. That group shut down CeeDee Lamb before he left the game due to injury, forcing the action to George Pickens, Ryan Flournoy and a regressing-to-the-mean Javonte Williams.
Thus, with the game on the life, Prescott was responsible for an interception that wasn't really his fault.
Dak with his 2nd interception tonight.
— Chat Sports (@ChatSports) October 9, 2026
If a meatball sub is a bad throw, what do we call a player who drops an easy catch? pic.twitter.com/PKKSb4TxQp
His first was a tipped pass as well, ruining what would have almost certainly been a first down or, barring that, a Brandon Aubrey field goal.
Dak Prescott interception! pic.twitter.com/Yaxq67o1NP
— J💥S Sports (@JordanOnSports1) October 9, 2026
Together, those cost Dallas -9.2 EPA in a game lost 24-16. While Prescott concentrated much of his work to the left side of the field (15 of his 24 completions went toward that sideline rather than over the middle or to the right), he was largely fine, if slightly cursed. The Cowboys didn't need to play Week 5 on hard mode. They did, and it ended in an embarrassing loss.
4. Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans
- 2026 EPA/game: -9.4
- Week 5 EPA: -20.5
- Difference: 11.1 points worse
- 2026 CPOE: -1.1 percent
- Week 5 CPOE: 1.6 percent
- Difference: 2.7 points better
Ward has been so bad in his season-plus as the Titans starter that it's difficult to mine new seafloors in his quest for rock bottom. Week 5's loss to the previously winless Houston Texans surveyed new caverns.
Through four games, the Texans vaunted offense had slipped to 26th in defensive efficiency. It had given up 34 points or more in half its Sundays. Then, it got to face Ward and finished one field goal from a shutout.
While no quarterback is going to have a good time against Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, but the former first overall pick was particularly devasted by that one-two combo.
A man on a MISSION!
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) October 11, 2026
📺: @nfloncbs | @paramountpluspic.twitter.com/AU8H1R8bP1
Ward failed to turn his sights downfield and move the chains even when escaping via scramble. Despite trailing all afternoon, only 10 of his 36 pass attempts went more than 10 yards downfield. He completed two.
16 of his 23 completions were within five yards of the line of scrimmage. His run game offered little respite, and the ineffectiveness of the rushing attack and blocking around him contributed mightily to his lone interception.
SNATCHEDDD
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) October 11, 2026
📺: @nfloncbs | @paramountpluspic.twitter.com/PCDvd9VkuJ
Eventually, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll ditched play-action because, well, what was the point when Houston had zero respect for the actual run game? Ward flailed, but did so at a rate well above his typical standard. He'd had a negative EPA in three of his first four games this season. None matched the -20.5 of Week 5. Every time he didn't hand the ball off, he cost the Titans half a point of expected value.
Ooof.
3. Geno Smith, New York Jets
- 2026 EPA/game: -1.5
- Week 5 EPA: -14.9
- Difference: 13.4 points worse
- 2026 CPOE: 6.3 percent
- Week 5 CPOE: -9.4 percent
- Difference: 15.7 points worse
Smith's rise back to prominence was defined by his ability to fit throws into tight windows and flip disaster to explosive plays. He led the league in CPOE twice in Seattle, which is why it's so troubling to see him regress here -- even against a Cleveland defense that's been soundly above average against the pass.
Neither quarterback was especially good on a rainy day in northern New Jersey. On top of that, Smith was left to play another game without Adonai Mitchell, who emerged as his top target in Week 2 but hasn't been back in the lineup since due to a finger injury. There was simply nothing doing downfield, as the veteran only attempted six passes that traveled more than 10 yards downfield and completed two.
While he stretched his season-opening interception-less streak to five games, his fourth quarter strip sack was, in terms of EPA and win probability, the biggest play of a dreary afternoon.
Carson FLYING in to knock it loose!#CLEvsNYJ on CBS pic.twitter.com/9HFah8X33w
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) October 11, 2026
That's a failure to recover from the right guard, who has to flip to the edge when Carson Schwesinger rolls his way on a blitz. It was one of four sacks Smith took, marching his team backward 40 yards and turning a potential scoring drive into a Browns lead minutes later. Fortunately for head coach Aaron Glenn, this did not matter because...
2. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
- 2026 EPA/game: -2.5
- Week 5 EPA: -17.5
- Difference: 15 points worse
- 2026 CPOE: -5.7 percent
- Week 5 CPOE: -16.6 percent
- Difference: 10.9 points worse
The Jets and their 23rd-ranked passing defense (through four weeks) put an end to the NFL's grossest redemption arc, at least temporarily. Watson's brief rise was countered with a quick return to his 2022-2025 self; a low-impact, inaccurate passer who struggles to generate downfield gains on a consistent basis.
The Browns trailed for more than 50 minutes Sunday, leaving Watson to open up his passing game whilst trailing. Though he had a solid deep ball touchdown to Denzel Boston (who else?), he suffered from losing KC Concepcion to a head injury. There's no masking how underwhelming and inefficient his passing was. He completed fewer than half his passes. He needed 33 attempts to throw for 155 yards. He was sacked eight times by a defense that had only nine sacks in its first four games.
let's go rook 👏#CLEvsNYJ on CBS, @paramountpluspic.twitter.com/IxeJ0TlaaV
— New York Jets (@nyjets) October 11, 2026
Watson's blocking is a mess, but his inability to diagnose blitzes and the pressure created within (the Jets sent extra defenders on half his dropbacks) led him to look baffled in the pocket. When he escaped pressure, he missed open targets and threw passes to nowhere. With a last-gasp chance to swing the game in the final minute, he didn't even get a pass off on fourth and long.
8 sacks in a single game 😮💨
— New York Jets (@nyjets) October 12, 2026
tied for the most in franchise history since it became an official stat in '82 pic.twitter.com/hUpJ4360AO
His passing chart is a conundrum. Watson made some solid deep throws:
OH MY GOODNESS DENZEL BOSTON!#CLEvsNYJ on CBS pic.twitter.com/sHe2ud1qdR
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) October 11, 2026
He also completed only six of 13 throws to travel between zero and 10 yards from the line of scrimmage. Pressure forced him into checkdowns, but it also made him throw panic balls that were inaccurate and to covered receivers.
Watson had been blitzed before and thrived. The Buccaneers matched New York's 50 percent blitz rate in Week 2 and Cleveland fended off Baker Mayfield behind an efficient performance from the quarterback they tabbed to replace him (after more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what an NFL investigation deemed "predatory behavior). But the Jets got home much more often -- a near 60 percent pressure rate -- and broke the veteran's comeback streak.
That'll be the blueprint going forward. At least the Browns can take solace in the fact they don't play the Minnesota Vikings this fall.
1. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
- 2026 EPA/game: 11.1
- Week 5 EPA: -8.4
- Difference: 19.5 points worse
- 2026 CPOE: 5.5 percent
- Week 5 CPOE: 10.5 percent
- Difference: Five points better
Purdy's inclusion here comes with caveats. He was able to fall so far because he climbed to incredible highs over the first four weeks of the season. He's done so despite (yet another) dense swath of injuries to the 49ers skill corps. And, most importantly, he's 5-0 and just beat the defending Super Bowl champions on their home turf. All in all, Purdy is having a very impressive year.
But!
That was a rare bad read/bad throw combination that led to a Seattle touchdown three plays later. He was also dinged, statistically, by an intentional grounding flag that probably shouldn't have been thrown.
But Purdy still completed half his passes that traveled more than 10 yards downfield (six of 12). He threw more touchdowns than interceptions on a day where Deebo Samuel left the game in the third quarter, forcing him to rely on aging stars Mike Evans, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. San Francisco's injury woes and modest depth have put this team on the edge of a knife once again. If they get cut, it probably won't be Purdy's fault.
Still too-early FTW Gross QB rankings after Week 5
1. Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 18 points
2. Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts: 16
3. Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers: 14
t-4. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 12
t-4. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 12
6. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 11
t-7. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 10
t-7. Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins: 10
t-7. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 10
t-10.. Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals: 8
t-10. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: 8
12. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 7
13. Geno Smith, New York Jets: 6
14. Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans: 4
t-15. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 2
t-15. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 2
t-15. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 2
t-18. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 1
t-18. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 1
t-18. Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints: 1
This article originally appeared on For The Win: QB ranks: Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy and the burden of high expectations